Daily Market Analysis By FXOpen

The Price of WTI Oil Forming a Reversal Pattern


In our analysis of the price of WTI oil dated November 8, we wrote that the price could recover to the level of USD 80 per barrel.

After the price failed to reach the round level of USD 80 by only 36 cents (the median line of the descending channel prevented this from happening) on November 14, the bears again seized the initiative. The result of their pressure was a reduction in the price to a new autumn low on November 14 at the level of USD 73 per barrel, after which the price recovered again to the median line.

A new attempt by the bears to push the price down from the median line occurred on November 22, but note how quickly the price of oil recovered after falling below USD 75 per barrel. This is evidence of bull aggression and the strength of demand.

At the same time, the price forms an inverted head-and-shoulders reversal pattern, as a result of which a bullish breakdown of the current descending channel may occur, although if this event occurs, it is unlikely in the near future, since first the bulls need to overcome the resistance from the median line. Also, the bulls will have psychological resistance at USD 80 and, possibly, the SMA (100), directed downwards.



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USD/CAD, AUD/USD, EUR/USD Analysis: Commodity Currencies and Euro Poised to Resume Growth


After the publication of the FOMC protocols on Tuesday, the dollar managed to partially regain its lost positions. Thus, in the dollar/yen pair one could observe a corrective pullback to figure 149, the US dollar/canadian dollar pair almost tested 1.3800, and the AUD/USD pair tested the important level of 0.6500, but as support. European currencies also retreated from previously reached highs. However, US dollar buyers have not yet been able to develop a full-fledged upward movement, and yesterday evening the main trends established in early November continued in many pairs.
USD/CAD

In the USD to CAD chart, we are seeing a rebound from the resistance located at the alligator lines on the daily timeframe. The pair continues to work out the reversal bearish combination from November 1st. With the appropriate foundation, a breakdown of the lower fractal at 1.3650 is possible and the pair may continue to decline in the direction of 1.3500-1.3400. We may consider canceling the downward scenario if the pair confidently consolidates above 1.3800.

Today at 16:30 GMT+3, we are waiting for data on wholesale sales and corporate income in Canada for the current quarter. The core Canadian retail sales index for September will be released at this time tomorrow.



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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

Gold Price Dips From $2K While Crude Oil Price Recovers


Gold price surged toward the $2,000 zone before the bears appeared. Crude oil price is attempting a recovery wave above the $75.00 zone.

Important Takeaways for Gold and Oil Prices Analysis Today

• Gold price started a steady increase from the $1,965 zone against the US Dollar.
• A key bearish trend line is forming with resistance at $1,995 on the hourly chart of gold at FXOpen.
• Crude oil prices started a decent recovery wave from the $73.80 support.
• There is a connecting bearish trend line forming with resistance near $77.00 on the hourly chart of XTI/USD at FXOpen.

Gold Price Technical Analysis


On the hourly chart of Gold at FXOpen, the price found support near the $1,965 zone. The price remained in a bullish zone and started a strong increase above $1,985.

There was a decent move above the 50-hour simple moving average. The bulls pushed the price above the $1,985 and $1,995 resistance levels. Finally, the price tested the $2,005 zone before the bears appeared.

There was a minor downside correction below $2,000 and the RSI dipped below 50. There was a move below the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $1,965 swing low to the $2,007 high.

Initial support on the downside is near the 50% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $1,965 swing low to the $2,007 high at $1,985. The first major support is near the $1,975 zone.

If there is a downside break below the $1,975 support, the price might decline further. In the stated case, the price might drop toward the $1,965 support.

Immediate resistance is near a key bearish trend line at $1,995 and the 50-hour simple moving average. The next major resistance is near the $2,005 level. An upside break above the $2,005 resistance could send Gold price toward $2,020. Any more gains may perhaps set the pace for an increase toward the $2,032 level.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

GBP/USD Rallies While EUR/GBP Slides Below Support


GBP/USD is gaining pace above the 1.2575 resistance. EUR/GBP declined heavily below the 0.8720 and 0.8695 support levels.

Important Takeaways for GBP/USD and EUR/GBP Analysis Today

• The British Pound is attempting a fresh increase above 1.2600.
• There is a key bullish trend line forming with support near 1.2575 on the hourly chart of GBP/USD at FXOpen.
• EUR/GBP is trading in a bearish zone below the 0.8720 pivot level.
• There is a major bearish trend line forming with resistance near 0.8695 on the hourly chart at FXOpen.

GBP/USD Technical Analysis


On the hourly chart of GBP/USD at FXOpen, the pair remained well-bid above the 1.2450 level. As mentioned in the previous analysis, the British Pound started a decent increase above the 1.2500 zone against the US Dollar.

The bulls were able to push the pair above the 50-hour simple moving average and 1.2530. The pair even climbed above 1.2575 and traded as high as 1.2615. It is now consolidating gains above the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 1.2449 swing low to the 1.2615 high.

On the upside, the GBP/USD chart indicates that the pair is facing resistance near 1.2615. The next major resistance is near 1.2640.

A close above the 1.2640 resistance zone could open the doors for a move toward 1.2700. Any more gains might send GBP/USD toward 1.2740.

On the downside, there is a key support forming near a bullish trend line at 1.2575. If there is a downside break below 1.2575, the pair could accelerate lower. The next major support is near the 50% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 1.2449 swing low to the 1.2615 high at 1.2530.

The next key support is seen near 1.2510, below which the pair could test 1.2450. Any more losses could lead the pair toward the 1.2370 support.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

Australian Dollar Reaches Its Highest Since Early August


Important events regarding AUD took place this morning:
→ the level of retail sales for the month in Australia unexpectedly fell: actual = -0.2%, expected = +0.1%, a month earlier = +0.9%.
→ a press conference was held by the head of the RBA, Michelle Bullock, according to whom inflation in Australia follows the path of overseas countries. That is, inflation is decreasing, as in the USA and Great Britain.

Against the background of these events, the AUD/USD rate exceeded the level of 0.663 for the first time since the beginning of August. The rally from the late October low is already about 5.5%. However, this upward trend has 3 important obstacles:

    The upper limit of the November ascending channel (shown in blue).
    The upper limit of the longer-term parallel channel (shown in red).
    Level 0.660. During 2023, it worked as support once. Therefore, from the point of view of technical analysis, there is reason to expect that it will provide resistance.



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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

USD/JPY, GBP/USD, and EUR/USD Market Analysis: The US Dollar Continues to Fall


The downward movement in the American currency, which began at the end of October, resumed with renewed vigour at the beginning of the current five-day trading period.

Thus, the euro/US dollar pair is consolidating at 1.0900, the pound/US dollar pair has confidently strengthened above 1.2600, and USD/JPY sellers have broken through the resistance at 149. Nevertheless, the coming trading sessions are quite saturated with the fundamentals, so it is possible to see both the strengthening of existing trends and the beginning of corrective pullbacks from the main movements.

USD/JPY

The cooling of the US labour market and lower inflation are contributing to increased bearish sentiment on the dollar. More and more market participants are becoming confident that the most aggressive rate-tightening cycle of the last couple of decades is behind us, and the Fed could cut its benchmark interest rate as soon as the first quarter of 2024. On the contrary, the Bank of Japan has been adhering to a policy of ultra-low interest rates for a long time, and if it decides to change the current vector of monetary policy, the dollar/yen pair may suffer significant losses.

Last week, on the USD/JPY chart, the pair almost tested a significant support level at 147.00. Greenback buyers managed to correct to 149.70, but yesterday evening the pair was trading below 149.00.

Today we are waiting for data on the US consumer confidence index from CB for November. Analysts expect a decline in the indicator, which may contribute to a retest of 147.00. We could consider cancelling the downward scenario only after a confident strengthening above 150.00.



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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

EUR/USD Analysis: Price Reaches the Level of 1.1000


Before yesterday's trading session, the last time 1 euro was 1.1 USD was in the first half of August.

The growth of the rate was facilitated by the weakening of the dollar, which occurred against the background of the words of Christopher Waller, a member of the Fed Board of Governors, who is known for his hawkish policies. But he has already softened his position.

"I am increasingly confident that policy is currently well positioned to slow the economy and get inflation back to 2 percent," he said yesterday, however, adding that if the decline in inflation continues ?for a few more months... three months, four months, five months... we can start reducing the discount rate just because inflation is lower.?

The expected rate cut could mark the beginning of a new period of looser monetary policy. Therefore, financial markets reacted by increasing the prices of currencies relative to the dollar ? in particular, the euro reached a psychological level.



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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.