Daily Market Analysis By FXOpen

US Dollar Ended the Week under Pressure


The February labour market report was published in the United States. The number of new jobs created by the national economy outside the agricultural sector increased by 275.0k in January after an increase of 229.0k a month earlier, while experts expected an increase of 200.0k. It should also be noted that the January figure was revised from the previous estimate of 353.0k jobs. The average hourly wage in annual terms adjusted from 4.4% to 4.3%, and in monthly terms, from 0.5% to 0.1%. At the same time, the unemployment rate in February increased sharply from 3.7% to 3.9%.

EUR/USD


The EUR/USD pair shows mixed dynamics, remaining close to 1.0940. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0980, a break higher could trigger a rise towards 1.1100. On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0887, a break below could take the pair towards 1.0842.

Market activity remains subdued as investors analyse macroeconomic data released last week. On Friday, March 8, trading participants drew attention to the decline in the annual dynamics of industrial production in Germany in January by 5.5% after -3.5% in the previous month, and in monthly terms the figure strengthened by 1.0% after a reduction of 2 .0% in December against a forecast of 0.6%, which allows the German economy to emerge from recession in the near future. The German producer price index added 0.2% monthly after -0.8% in December, and slowed down by 4.4% year-on-year after -5.1%, while markets were expecting -6.6%. Trading participants also assessed statistics on the eurozone GDP product for the fourth quarter of 2023: on a quarterly basis, the figure remained at 0.0%, and on an annual basis it increased by 0.1%, which coincided with expectations.

Technical analysis of the EUR/USD pair shows that a new upward channel has formed at the highs of last week. Now the price is near the lower border and may continue to rise.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

Australian Dollar Volatility Ends in Lull Ahead Of US Data


The Australian Dollar has recently been displaying signs of volatility, with its price varying considerably against the US Dollar over the past few months.

From a low point in October last year, the AUDUSD pair went on a sudden rally, which lasted until December before beginning to fall flat during the course of January. As February drew to a close, the AUDUSD pair began to rise in value again, reaching 0.66251 on March 4, according to FXOpen charts.

Over the past week, the Australian Dollar has been a bit dormant in its movements against the US Dollar; however, this morning's trading session in Australia and across the Asian market session began to demonstrate that some renewed interest is beginning to be shown in the Australian Dollar as the Australian economy begins to look a bit stronger.

This morning as the European markets begin to open, activity from the Australian market is being analysed and one matter of interest is that the Australian S&P index along with the ASX 200 which is an index featuring 200 well capitalised stocks on Australia's ASX exchange, showed improvement over previous performances which is being mooted as a potential strengthening factor for the Australian Dollar.

Today in Australia, financial services executives have held meetings to discuss the GDP within Australia for the fourth quarter of 2023, with nothing out of the ordinary having surfaced and data in line with expectation; however, there is anticipation regarding the forthcoming monetary policy announcements from the US Federal Reserve which may affect the value of the AUDUSD, and forthcoming CPI data in the United States for February looks set to meet expectations at 3.1, identical to that for January.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

Market Analysis: GBP/USD Recovers While EUR/GBP Aims More Upsides


GBP/USD is attempting a fresh increase from the 1.2745 zone. EUR/GBP is gaining pace and might extend its rally above the 0.8550 zone.

Important Takeaways for GBP/USD and EUR/GBP Analysis Today

• The British Pound is attempting a recovery above the 1.2780 zone against the US Dollar.
• There was a break above a key bearish trend line with resistance at 1.2790 on the hourly chart of GBP/USD at FXOpen.
• EUR/GBP started a fresh increase above the 0.8535 resistance zone.
• There is a major bullish trend line forming with support near 0.8535 on the hourly chart at FXOpen.

GBP/USD Technical Analysis


On the hourly chart of GBP/USD at FXOpen, the pair started a fresh decline from the 1.2890 zone. The British Pound traded below the 1.2820 zone against the US Dollar.

A low was formed near 1.2746 and the pair is now attempting a recovery wave. There was a break above the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 1.2893 swing high to the 1.2746 low.

There was a break above a key bearish trend line with resistance at 1.2790, but the pair is still below the 50-hour simple moving average. On the upside, the GBP/USD chart indicates that the pair is facing resistance near 1.2800.

The next major resistance is near the 1.2820 level or the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 1.2893 swing high to the 1.2746 low. If the RSI moves above 50 and the pair climbs above 1.2820, there could be another rally. In the stated case, the pair could rise toward the 1.2890 level or even 1.2920.

On the downside, there is a major support forming near 1.2745. If there is a downside break below the 1.2745 support, the pair could accelerate lower. The next major support is near the 1.2700 zone, below which the pair could test 1.2665. Any more losses could lead the pair toward the 1.2550 support.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

GBP/USD: Bulls Show Resilience amid Inflation and GDP News


Yesterday important data on inflation in the United States was published. It caused a significant spike in volatility in financial markets, even though the values were in line with expectations. CPI in monthly terms: actual = 0.4%, forecast = 0.4%, a month ago = 0.3%, a year ago = 0.4%.

And today news came out about UK GDP in monthly terms, which also corresponded to expectations: fact = +0.2%, forecast = +0.2%, a month ago = -0.1%.

It is noteworthy that in both cases the first reaction was a fall in the price of GBP/USD, but then a recovery followed ? this is a manifestation of the stability of demand.



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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

USD/JPY: Analysts Adjust Forecasts for the Strengthening of the Yen


Since the beginning of 2024, the USD/JPY price has been in an uptrend (as shown by the blue channel), but when the rate exceeded the psychological level of 150 yen per US dollar, market sentiment changed. This was due to expectations that the Bank of Japan would take interest rates out of negative territory ? and statements from officials gave clear indications of this possibility.

Expecting a tightening of monetary policy, the yen sharply strengthened against the dollar, and a bearish A→B impulse formed on the USD/JPY chart. However, having reached the level of 147 yen per US dollar (and dropped slightly below it), the market has stabilized. Moreover, we see some recovery: today, the USD/JPY price is trading around 147.8.



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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

Market Analysis: Gold Price Rally Takes Break, Crude Oil Price Surges


Gold price rallied above $2,180 before correcting lower. Crude oil price is rising and it could climb further higher toward the $82 resistance.

Important Takeaways for Gold and Oil Prices Analysis Today

• Gold price failed to clear the $2,200 resistance and corrected lower against the US Dollar.
• A key bearish trend line is forming with resistance at $2,170 on the hourly chart of gold at FXOpen.
• Crude oil prices are moving higher above the $80.00 resistance zone.
• There is a connecting bullish trend line forming with support near $80.60 on the hourly chart of XTI/USD at FXOpen.

Gold Price Technical Analysis


On the hourly chart of Gold at FXOpen, the price was able to climb above the $2,150 resistance, as mentioned in the previous analysis. The price even broke the $2,180 level before the bears appeared.

The price traded close to the $2,200 zone before there was a downside correction. There was a move below the $2,180 pivot zone. The price settled below the 50-hour simple moving average and RSI dipped below 50. Finally, it tested the $2,150 zone.

The price is now consolidating losses near the $2,160 level. Immediate resistance on the upside is near the $2,166 level or the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $2,179 swing high to the $2,152 low.

The next major resistance is near a key bearish trend line at $2,170. It is close to the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $2,179 swing high to the $2,152 low.

An upside break above the $2,170 resistance could send Gold price toward $2,180. Any more gains may perhaps set the pace for an increase toward the $2,200 level. If there is no recovery wave, the price could continue to move down.

Initial support on the downside is near the $2,164 level. The first major support is $2,150. If there is a downside break below the $2,150 support, the price might decline further. In the stated case, the price might drop toward the $2,132 support.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

WTI Oil Price Reaches 4-month High


The International Energy Agency (IEA) has once again raised its forecasts for global oil demand in 2024. While the agency's forecast pointed to the prospect of an oil surplus in 2023, its analysts now believe that the world will experience a shortage of oil in the second half of 2024.

Among the reasons for the shortage:
→ limitation of oil production by OPEC+ countries, it is 2 million barrels per day until the middle of the year. And it may be extended, as Bloomberg writes ? the decision is scheduled for June 1;
→ changes in logistics routes due to Houthi attacks on tankers in the Red Sea.

Also, a bullish impulse for the price of WTI oil can be provided by the geopolitical situation, which remains tense.



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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.