Daily Market Analysis By FXOpen

What Is Random Walk Theory and Its Implications in Trading?


Random walk theory argues that market prices move erratic, making it difficult to analyse past data for an advantage. It suggests that technical and fundamental analysis provide little to no edge, as prices instantly reflect all available information. While some traders embrace this idea, others challenge it. This article explores the theory, its implications, criticisms, and what it means for traders navigating financial markets.

What Is Random Walk Theory?

Random walk theory reflects the idea that financial markets move erratic, making it impossible to analyse past price data for an advantage. The theory argues that price changes are random and independent, meaning past movements don?t influence future direction. This challenges both technical and fundamental analysis, arguing traders who attempt to time the market are essentially guessing.

The concept was first introduced by Maurice Kendall in 1953, who found no meaningful patterns in stock prices. Later, Burton Malkiel popularised it in A Random Walk Down Wall Street (1973), arguing that a blindfolded monkey throwing darts at a stock list would perform as well as professional traders. The underlying principle is that markets are efficient, instantly reflecting all available information.

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Market Braces for Increased Volatility Ahead of New Tariffs


Amid global economic uncertainty and anticipation of new tariffs, major currency pairs continue to test key levels. In recent weeks, market participants have been exercising caution, awaiting potential changes in trade policy that could significantly impact exchange rates. The introduction of new tariffs by the Trump administration could also put pressure on European currencies, adding another layer of uncertainty and volatility to the market. In the coming days, investors will focus on which tariffs will take effect from April and how this might influence the trajectory of leading currency pairs.

EUR/USD

The euro, after rebounding from 1.0950, tested key support at 1.0730 and is currently trading within a narrow range of 1.0850?1.0750. Technical analysis of EUR/USD suggests a possible continuation of the downward trend, as a series of bearish reversal patterns has formed on the daily chart.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) Shares Drop Over 7%


As the chart shows, Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) shares declined by approximately 7.6%, reaching their lowest level since late February. This marked one of the worst performances in the stock market yesterday.

Why Did JNJ Shares Fall?
Two major bearish factors contributed to the decline:

A Texas judge rejected Johnson & Johnson's third attempt to settle lawsuits related to allegations that its baby powder and other talc-based products harmed consumers.
On Tuesday, Johnson & Johnson announced that its upcoming acquisition of Intra-Cellular Therapies is expected to dilute adjusted earnings per share by approximately $0.25 for the full year 2025. Investors appear to have reacted negatively to this outlook, despite the company?s expectation that the deal will generate around $700 million in additional sales.



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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

Interest in the Dollar Declines Amid Trump's Escalating Trade Wars


The tariffs introduced by Trump yesterday on imports from various countries?20% on the EU, 34% on China, and 46% on Vietnam?have heightened uncertainty in the currency markets. As expected, these measures have contributed to increased volatility in major currency pairs. The actions of the White House administration have led to losses for the dollar, causing concern among investors. The tariffs also affect countries such as Taiwan (32%), Japan (24%), and South Korea (25%), which could significantly impact exchange rates. Amid global economic instability, market participants are focused on how these changes will affect the world economy.

USD/JPY
Yesterday, before Donald Trump's speech, the USD/JPY currency pair was trading near 150.00. Better-than-expected preliminary labour market data and a rise in US industrial orders for February (0.6% versus the forecast of 0.5%) contributed to a slight strengthening of USD/JPY. However, the US President?s announcement of trade tariffs led to sharp market fluctuations and a loss of more than 150 pips for USD/JPY within just a few hours. At present, the pair is trading below 148.00. A technical analysis of USD/JPY suggests a possible test of this year's March lows in the 147.20?146.70 range.



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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

USD/CHF Falls to Its Lowest Level in Nearly Five Months


Today, the exchange rate of one US dollar against the Swiss franc dropped below 0.87000 francs?its lowest level since early November 2024.

Since the start of 2025, the USD/CHF pair has declined by more than 4%.

Why Is USD/CHF Falling Today?
On one hand, the US dollar is weakening against other currencies due to Trump?s decision to implement the previously announced tariffs on international trade, as mentioned in our previous post.

On the other hand, the Swiss franc is gaining strength due to its appeal as a safe-haven asset. Furthermore, this morning?s release of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed that inflation in Switzerland remains at zero, increasing the franc?s value at a time when tariff conflicts pose risks to the global economy.



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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.