Daily Market Analysis By FXOpen

BTCUSD and XRPUSD Technical Analysis ? 07th DEC, 2021


BTCUSD: Rounding Bottom Pattern Above $46,000

Bitcoin suffered heavy losses on Dec 4th, which was primarily driven by liquidation of the holdings from the long-term investors in the markets.

Additionally, the Dec 4th bitcoin plunge occurred due to the Omicron coronavirus variant which saw BTC touching a low of $45,000.

We saw BTCUSD touch a high of $59,157 on 30th Nov, and form a bullish momentum before entering a consolidation channel above $55,000.

Today, bitcoin is back in the bullish channel and trading above the $50,000 handle in the European trading session.

We can clearly see a rounding bottom pattern above the $46,000 handle which signifies that the markets have entered into a bullish uptrend.

In the US Trading session, bitcoin is trading in a consolidation phase and is expected to continue doing so.

The short-term outlook for bitcoin has turned MILDLY BULLISH.

Both the Stoch and StochRSI are indicating an OVERBOUGHT level, which means that in the immediate short-term, a decline in the price is expected.

Bitcoin is now moving above its 100 hourly simple and exponential moving averages.

The average true range is indicating lesser market volatility which means that markets will enter a consolidation phase soon.

• Bitcoin trend reversal is seen above $46,000
• Stoch is indicating an OVERBOUGHT level
• The price is now trading just below its pivot level of $51,140
• All the moving averages are giving a BUY signal at current market level of $51,027

Bitcoin: Trend Reversal Towards $60,000 Confirmed


BTCUSD has already recovered its losses from last week and is now trading above the important psychological support level of $50,000.

We will need to see a confirmation of the uptrend once the prices hit the $52,000 handle some time later today.

Some of the major technical indicators are giving a STRONG SELL signal, which means that the prices can also get a downward correction before reaching the level of $60,000.

The price of BTCUSD is trading below its classic resistance level of $51,345 and Fibonacci resistance level of $51,478 in the European trading session.

In the last 24hrs, BTCUSD has gone UP by 6.62% with a price change of $3,170 and a 24hr trading volume of USD 37.942 billion. We can see an increase of 12.54% in trading volume as compared to yesterday.

The Week Ahead

We can see that bitcoin has recovered from last week?s losses and is on its way towards reaching the $58,000 handle this week.

The medium to long-term outlook remains BULLISH for bitcoin with the target of $62,000. At present, the markets are giving a BUY signal, so it would be best to enter long positions in bitcoin.

The relative strength index of 65 is indicating a BULLISH channel, and fresh buying is expected in the markets at any time.

We can see that the fears related to Omicron are vanishing, and new investors are coming back to the markets which also explains the increased market volatility today.

Technical Indicators:

Stoch (9,6): at 99.04 indicating an OVERBOUGHT level

Average directional change (14-day): at 50.66 indicating a BUY

Rate of price change: at 4.047 indicating a BUY

Moving averages convergence divergence (12,26): at 553.80 indicating a BUY

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ETHUSD and LTCUSD Technical Analysis ? 09th DEC, 2021


ETHUSD: Ascending Channel Pattern Above $4,000

Ethereum continues its consolidation phase remaining above the $,4300 handle in the European trading session today.

ETHUSD is slowly preparing itself for its next move against the US dollar. The price continues to recover from its decline below the $4,000 level.

We can clearly see an ascending channel pattern above $4,000 which signifies that the price will continue to rise aiming upwards of $4,500 to $4,700.

ETH is now trading just above its pivot level of $4,374 and moving in a bullish ascending channel. The price of ETHUSD is about to break its classic resistance level of $4,418, its Fibonacci resistance level $4,403, and is now aiming towards the $4,500 handle in the US trading session.

All the major technical indicators are giving a NEUTRAL signal.

ETH is now trading above its 100 hourly and 200 hourly simple moving averages.

• Ethereum continues a bullish channel
• Short-term range appears to be bullish ETHUSD
• All the moving averages are giving a STRONG BUY signal
• Average true range is indicating LESSER market volatility

Ether: Bullish Trend Towards $4,700 Confirmed


In today?s early Asian trading session today, ETHUSD continues to move in a consolidation channel after touching an intraday high of $4,479 and an intraday low of $4,345 in the European trading session.

Today?s relative strength index is NEUTRAL which signifies a potential bullish trend.

It is best to enter into long positions in Ethereum at the present market level of $4,380 with a target of $5,000 for the next month.

The average true range is indicating a lower market volatility as we can see a drop of 11.76 in the trading volume as compared to yesterday. This is because the market was in a consolidation phase and the buyers were waiting for a bullish pattern, which is clearly visible now.

ETH has gained +0.55% with a price change of +23.84$ in the past 24hrs, and has a trading volume of 18.912 billion USD.

Bitcoin vs Ethereum Gains in 2021


The gains observed in Ethereum have been outstanding as compared to bitcoin during the same period of time. This is because Ether?s underlying technology is far superior to bitcoin?s, which only serves as a mode of payment transfer and Investments.

The demand for Ethereum is currently stronger due to its leading role in the emerging industry of decentralized finance (DeFi), as well as non-fungible tokens (NFTs).

The Week Ahead

Ether is printing above $4,300 today, and this week, we could see a levels of $4,500.

The medium to long-term outlook for Ether remains bullish with targets of above $5,000 the next month.

We have observed an $10 billion increase in Ethereum?s market cap which currently stands at $520 billion.

We have detected an MA50 crossover pattern which signifies a bullish trend in the coming days. A mullish crossover pattern is also seen in the MA20.

Technical Indicators:

Ultimate oscillator: at 49.448 indicating a NEUTRAL market

Moving averages convergence divergence (14-day): at 6.88 indicating a BUY

MA200 (exponential): at 4298.74 indicating a BUY

Rate of price change: at 0.403 indicating a BUY

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GBP/USD Aims Recovery While EUR/GBP Is Sliding


GBP/USD is attempting a recovery wave above the 1.3220 resistance. EUR/GBP is declining and is gaining pace below the 0.8550 level.

Important Takeaways for GBP/USD and EUR/GBP

• The British Pound is facing resistance near the 1.3280 and 1.3300 levels.
• There was a break above a major bearish trend line with resistance near 1.3240 on the hourly chart of GBP/USD.
• EUR/GBP started a fresh decline from well above the 0.8580 support level.
• There is a major bearish trend line forming with resistance near 0.8540 on the hourly chart.

GBP/USD Technical Analysis


The British Pound declined heavily below the 1.3300 level against the US Dollar. The GBP/USD pair formed a base above the 1.3265 level and recently started an upside correction.

The pair recovered above the 1.3200 resistance level. There was a break above the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 1.3289 high to 1.3163 low (formed on FXOpen). Besides, there was a break above a major bearish trend line with resistance near 1.3240 on the hourly chart of GBP/USD.

The pair is now trading near the 1.3250 level and the 50 hourly simple moving average. It is close to the 76.4% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 1.3289 high to 1.3163 low.

On the upside, an initial resistance is near the 1.3265 level. If there is an upside break above the 1.3450 resistance and the 50 hourly SMA, the price could surpass 1.3280. The main resistance is near the 1.3300 zone.

Therefore, a proper break above the 1.3300 resistance could open the doors for a steady increase. The next major resistance for the bulls could be 1.3350. If not, the pair could start a fresh decline below 1.3220. An immediate support is near the 1.3200 level.

The first key support is near the 1.3180 level. Any more losses could lead the pair towards the 1.3150 support zone. The next major support sits near the 1.3080 level.

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Get Ready For December?s Most Important Trading Week


The most important trading week of the month has started, and traders are preparing for a sharp increase in volatility. No less than four central banks are expected to announce their monetary policy decisions, which will raise the currency market?s volatility.

Moreover, the moves may be exacerbated by lower liquidity levels typical for December. After all, December is known for most of the investment houses decreasing their market activity in light of the end-of-the-year holidays.

Inflation pressures central banks to tighten the monetary policy sooner than they would have wanted too. Last week, the US November inflation data showed that the prices of goods and services increased by 6.8% YoY, a rate not seen in the last 39 years. Therefore, the pressure on the Fed and other central banks increases to normalize their policies.


What to expect from the FOMC meeting on Wednesday

The Fed is due to announce its decision on Wednesday. The risk is that it will have a more hawkish tone than the markets expect as higher inflation is threatening the Fed?s mandate of price stability.

A couple of weeks ago, the Fed?s chair, Jerome Powell, announced that it is time to stop describing inflation as ?transitory?. The problem with higher inflation in the States is that it will be exported to other parts of the world due to global trade partnerships, and also to the fact that the US is the largest economy in the world.

Three central banks to announce policy decisions on Thursday

One day after the Fed?s decision, three central banks will announce their monetary policy stance: the Swiss National Bank, the Bank of England, and the European Central Bank. Out of the three, the focus will be on the BOE and the ECB, because the Swiss National Bank is not expected to change its policy.

In the UK, while no rate hike is expected, the market participants will focus on the MPC asset purchase facility votes. Just like in the case of the Fed, the risk is that the BOE will be hawkish.

Finally, the ECB is facing a tough decision. The euro was weak all year, reflecting the bank?s dovishness. On the one hand, it does not plan to hike in 2022, in sharp contrast with the Fed. On the other hand, higher inflation forces its hand to taper asset purchases, a move that may be perceived as hawkish by financial markets.

This is what makes this trading week the most important in December. After Friday, volatility will decline as investors prepare for the end of the year festivities and holidays.

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The low Turkish Lira and the tourism opportunity


Turkey, a huge nation which is home to over 84 million people, is in an interesting position economically and politically and has been for some time.

The current economic outlook is one of surprising doom, and the focus over the past day by mainstream economists in Western countries has been on the anticipation of a rate cut which has caused the Lira to plunge to a new low, which is quite a significant market event given that it began this month at a very low value.

Yesterday was a particularly interesting session for the Lira, given that it was trading at 14.33 to the dollar at 1:25 p.m. in Istanbul, representing a slight recovery from the record low of 14.99 earlier in the day but still languishing at all time lows.

The mere thought that a commonly-traded currency which is not a major and could be considered to be one of the 'exotics' which is often traded against majors would plunge to a lower value than ever recorded could well prove to be a point of interest among traders and market participants.

Turkey may well be having a fiscal apocalypse in the eyes of its own central bank and policymakers and financial leaders globally, as the nation's own central bank began to intervene directly in the FX market on Monday this week by selling dollars to prop up the lira, but there are two sides to this situation which could lead to some degree of volatility.

Whilst President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has taken a hardline stance against raising interest rates, Turkey's finance minister aligns with the idea as do many global economists which agree would actually aid the currency and go toward stemming the rampant inflation, which is now at approximately 20%.

Thus, the currency is in the doldrums but the wider economy of Turkey has perhaps some degree of potential, as it is one of the only countries within which tourism makes up a vast percentage of the national industry base which is welcoming tourists without many restrictions.

In 2018, Tourism directly accounted for 7.7% of total employment in Turkey, directly employing 2.2 million people and total income from tourism was 3.8% of GDP.

The nation's nominal per capita income - effectively the average salary per person - in Turkey is $9,300 which is considerably short of the national average per capita GDP in Western nations which are home to major currencies, which means that any movement in the all important tourist industry makes all the difference to the outlook within Turkey and therefore could directly affect the value of the Lira

Turkey's government has officially announced just three weeks ago that it will not be implementing any lockdowns going forward, and Turkey remains open to tourists.

Every year, over one million British tourists flock to Turkey's sun-soaked resorts and with those resorts very much open for business, the possibility of restrictions being implemented across the United Kingdom over the winter period and the low value of the Turkish lira meaning that British travelers get more bang for their buck, it could be that the Turkish economy may get a boost from those looking for an escape from further curtailment of freedoms to a warmer climate for a few weeks with a great exchange rate.

Many residents of Germany visit Turkey each year, some for vacation and others to visit their families and FX transactions between Germany and Turkey put the Euro and the Lira against each other very regularly.

Given Germany's current strict Covid rules, Turkey's low value Lira and open society with little restrictions may appeal.

Bearing in mind the internal issues of inflation and a beleaguered economy and the restrictions in Europe which may drive an open-for-business Turkish tourist industry forward, there may be some degree of volatility in the Lira when traded against the Euro or the Pound.

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GBP/USD Aims Recovery While EUR/GBP Is Sliding


GBP/USD is attempting a recovery wave above the 1.3220 resistance. EUR/GBP is declining and is gaining pace below the 0.8550 level.

Important Takeaways for GBP/USD and EUR/GBP

• The British Pound is facing resistance near the 1.3280 and 1.3300 levels.
• There was a break above a major bearish trend line with resistance near 1.3240 on the hourly chart of GBP/USD.
• EUR/GBP started a fresh decline from well above the 0.8580 support level.
• There is a major bearish trend line forming with resistance near 0.8540 on the hourly chart.

GBP/USD Technical Analysis

The British Pound declined heavily below the 1.3300 level against the US Dollar. The GBP/USD pair formed a base above the 1.3265 level and recently started an upside correction.

The pair recovered above the 1.3200 resistance level. There was a break above the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 1.3289 high to 1.3163 low (formed on FXOpen). Besides, there was a break above a major bearish trend line with resistance near 1.3240 on the hourly chart of GBP/USD.

The pair is now trading near the 1.3250 level and the 50 hourly simple moving average. It is close to the 76.4% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 1.3289 high to 1.3163 low.

On the upside, an initial resistance is near the 1.3265 level. If there is an upside break above the 1.3450 resistance and the 50 hourly SMA, the price could surpass 1.3280. The main resistance is near the 1.3300 zone.

Therefore, a proper break above the 1.3300 resistance could open the doors for a steady increase. The next major resistance for the bulls could be 1.3350. If not, the pair could start a fresh decline below 1.3220. An immediate support is near the 1.3200 level.

The first key support is near the 1.3180 level. Any more losses could lead the pair towards the 1.3150 support zone. The next major support sits near the 1.3080 level.

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ETHUSD and LTCUSD Technical Analysis ? 16th DEC, 2021


ETHUSD: Double Bottom Pattern Above $3,600

Ethereum started this week on a mild bullish tone by touching a high of $4,169 after which the decline started pushing its prices below the $4,000 handle.

We saw Ethereum touching an intraday low of $3,654 yesterday, after which fresh buying in the market pushed its prices all the way above the $4000 mark. The recovery was also backed by the Three Arrows Capital hedge fund purchasing $56 million worth of Ether.

ETHUSD is slowly preparing itself for its next move against the US dollar.

We can clearly see a double bottom pattern above $3,600, which signifies the end of a downtrend and a shift towards an uptrend.

ETH is now trading just above its pivot level of $3,998 and moving in a bullish ascending channel. The price of ETHUSD is about to break its classic resistance level of $4,048, its Fibonacci resistance level of $4,035, and is now aiming towards the $4,200 handle in the US trading session.

All the major technical indicators are giving a STRONG BUY signal.

ETH is now trading above its 100 hourly and below its 200 hourly simple moving averages.

• Ethereum trend reversal seen above $3,600
• Short-term range appears to be bullish for ETHUSD
• All the moving averages are giving a BUY signal
• Average true range is indicating LESS market volatility

Ether: Bullish Reversal towards $4,200 Confirmed


ETHUSD has recovered from its losses and is now moving in the consolidation phase below the $4,200 handle in the European trading session.

Stoch and average directional change are indicating a NEUTRAL market.

We can see a 34.50% increase in the trading volume as compared to yesterday,  because the market was in a consolidation phase, and today, new buyers have entered as the bullish pattern is clearly visible.

ETH has gained +4.58% with a price change of +176.90$ in the past 24hrs and has a trading volume of 26.810 billion USD.

The Week Ahead

Ether is now waiting for its next move against the US dollar. We can see that the price continues to hold above the important psychological support level of $4,000.

The medium to long-term outlook for Ether remains bullish with targets of $4,500 to $5,000 in January 2022.

This is also a time when long-term investors tend to liquidate their holdings and withdraw the profits. Because of the coming end-of-year Christmas and New Year holidays, the liquidity will remain low and the advances limited.

We have detected an MA5 crossover pattern which signifies a bullish trend in the coming days. A bullish crossover pattern is also seen in the MA100.

Technical Indicators:

Ultimate oscillator: at 54.75 indicating a BUY

Moving averages convergence divergence (14-day): at 54.07 indicating a BUY

Commodity channel index (14days): at 34.51 indicating a NEUTRAL market

Rate of price change: at 8.161 indicating a BUY

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GBP/USD Continues To Struggle, USD/CAD Gains Momentum


GBP/USD failed to recover and declined below the 1.3250 support. USD/CAD is rising and is showing positive signs above the 1.2850 support.

Important Takeaways for GBP/USD and USD/CAD

• The British Pound started a fresh decline from the 1.3375 resistance zone.
• There was a break below a key bullish trend line with support near 1.3235 on the hourly chart of GBP/USD.
• USD/CAD started a major increase above the 1.2780 and 1.2800 resistance levels.
• There is a major bullish trend line forming with support near 1.2810 on the hourly chart.

GBP/USD Technical Analysis

After a major decline, the British Pound found support above 1.3180 against the US Dollar. GBP/USD started a recovery wave above the 1.3300 level, but it failed to continue higher.

A high was formed near 1.3374 on FXOpen and the pair started a fresh decline. There was a break below the 1.3320 and 1.3300 support levels. The pair traded below the 50% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 1.3173 swing low to 1.3374 high.

GBP/USD Hourly Chart


It is now trading below the 1.3250 level and the 50 hourly simple moving average. There was a break below a key bullish trend line with support near 1.3235 on the hourly chart of GBP/USD.

An immediate resistance is near the 1.3250 level. The first major resistance is near the 1.3300 level. If there is an upside break above the 1.3300 zone, the pair could rise towards 1.3350.

The next key resistance could be 1.3375, above which the pair could gain strength. On the downside, the first key support is near the 1.3220 area. It is near the 76.4% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 1.3173 swing low to 1.3374 high.

If there is a break below 1.3220, the pair could decline extend its decline. The next key support is near the 1.3200 level. Any more losses might call for a test of the 1.3150 support.

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