Daily Market Analysis By FXOpen

BTC and XRP ? Bullish sentiment continues



BTC/USD

From last Friday when the price of Bitcoin has been traded at $46,371, we have seen an increase of 17.6% measured to its highest point today at the $54,530 level. After a minor pullback, the price back close to the levels of today?s high and is still on an upward trajectory.



This upside movement is counted as the starting impulse to the upside after a correction ended on the 28th of February. The first two waves should have ended which is why now we are seeing the development of the next 3rd one.

If this is the five-wave impulse the price increase should continue after the completion of this rise which is set to exceed the high on the 3rd. But there is still a possibility that it would end on the 3rd wave in which case that would mean that we have seen the 2nd sub-wave of the higher degree correctional count.

In the first case, a new all-time high would be expected, while in the second the price would go above its low of February 28th which would be the first sub-wave of the higher degree descending move. The pivot point would be the pullback that is expected after the current rise ends, as it manages to stay above the $52,600 area it would validate the 4th wave. But if it continues moving down and even falls below the $50,000 area that would be a clear sign that the price of Bitcoin is headed for a lower low as the 4th wave count would be invalidated. 


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LTC and EOS ? Did we see an upward correction ending?



LTC/USD

The price of Litecoin has been on a decline from its yesterday?s high made at $208 and has decreased by 7.64% today, coming down to $192. Since the price is in a downward trajectory and has made an entry below its prior higher high, further downside could be expected in the upcoming period.



On the hourly chart, we can see that the price of Litecoin has been on the rise since the start of March after a period of continuous decline. As on the 20th of February, we have seen the completion of the impulsive five-wave move to the upside. This is why a steep descending move was made as a corrective wave. This is why now we could have seen the continuation of the higher degree corrective move as the ABC to the upside from the start of the month.

The first indication that this was an upward ABC instead of the next five-wave impulse is the fact that the price failed to stay above the 0.382 Fib level which was the ending point of the 1st wave to the upside. If this is true then the price of Litecoin is now headed further to the downside below its low made on the 28th of February at $154.


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Gold Price Back Above $1,700, Oil Price Correcting Gains



Gold price started a decent recovery and climbed above $1,720. Crude oil price traded to a new yearly high at $67.81 before correcting lower.

Important Takeaways for Gold and Oil

• Gold price found support near $1,680 and started a short-term recovery against the US Dollar.
• There was a break above a major bearish trend line at $1,700 on the hourly chart of gold.
• Crude oil price extended its rally and it traded to a new multi-month high near $67.81.
• Recently, there was a break below a connecting bullish trend line at $64.20 on the hourly chart of XTI/USD.

Gold Price Technical Analysis



Gold price formed a strong support base above the $1,680 level against the US Dollar. As a result, there was a decent recovery wave above the $1,700 and $1,705 resistance levels.

There was also a break above a major bearish trend line at $1,700 on the hourly chart of gold. It opened the doors for a move above the $1,720 level. The price even cleared the $1,730 level and settled above the 50 hourly simple moving average.

A high is formed near $1,740 on FXOpen and the price is currently correcting lower. There was a break below the $1,730 level. The price is now testing the $1,720 support and the 50 hourly simple moving average.

There is also a connecting bullish trend line with support near $1,721 on the same chart. If there is a downside break below $1,720, the price could revisit $1,700. Any more losses might call for a test of the $1,680 support.

On the upside, an initial resistance is near the $1,730 level. It is close to the 50% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the $1,740 swing high to $1,719 low.

The first major resistance is near the $1,735 level. The 76.4% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the $1,740 swing high to $1,719 low is also near $1,735. A convincing break above $1,730 and $1,735 might open the doors for a push above the $1,740 and $1,750 levels.


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Rising Yields Put Pressure on the Fed at Wednesday?s Meeting



The main event of the week for financial markets is the Fed?s FOMC meeting on Wednesday. Besides the regular statement, the Fed will reveal its economic projections, and the market will focus on the dots plot that shows the federal funds rate forecast for the next three years.

The event is particularly important for traders because the dollar is at crossroads. If the Fed signals a liftoff before 2024, the markets will take it as a hawkish signal that would trigger a wave of dollar buying. On the other hand, if the dots plot do not show any increase until 2024, the Fed signals its willingness to keep accommodative conditions despite the recent fiscal stimulus.

Challenges for the Fed



The big challenge for the Fed comes from the long-term yields, which rose recently. While the move higher is insignificant on the long-term charts, it does signal an unwanted tightening of financial conditions.

Moreover, the move higher in the yields generated a dollar rally at the end of February, tempered only by the new round of fiscal stimulus from Biden?s administration. Should the yields rise further, the investors may turn their attention to the dollar again. Yields typically rise during the economic recovery, and the new fiscal stimulus package leads to faster recovery.

Ahead of Wednesday?s meeting, the dollar remains offered ? the EURUSD is back above 1.19, the AUDUSD is above 0.77, and the GBPUSD trades close to 1.40. If the Fed hints at no rate hike until 2024, the dollar may take another dive. On the other hand, if the Fed is pressured by the rising yields and hints at a rate hike as early as 2023, the dollar may rally, sending the EURUSD below its recent 1.1840 support.

All in all, traders are guaranteed to see high volatility and quick price action as the Fed unveils its economic projections.


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BTC and XRP ? Support found



BTC/USD

The price of Bitcoin has fallen today to $53,548 at its lowest point from which we have seen an increase of 5.4% as a minor recovery was made to $56,388. Currently, the price is sitting at $55,893 as a pullback is being made but the price is still in an upward trajectory overall.



Looking at the hourly chart, you can see that the price has fallen back to the 0.382 Fibonacci level measured from the upward impulse from the start of the month to its new all-time high made on the 13th of March. This could be and most likely is the 4th wave out of the five-wave impulse to the upside from the next starting impulse wave to the upside. If that is true, then the price cannot fall inside the territory of the 1st wave which would be below the 0.5 Fib level at $52,361.

Now as we have seen a bounce off of the significant horizontal level at $54,497 it could mark the completion of this 4th wave which is why the increase seen today would be the 1st sub-wave of the next move to the upside that is set to push the price of Bitcoin above its prior all-time high an on to the new one. However, this has to be validated as the price could now be headed further down. The point of validation would be an increase above the 0.236 Fib level or the invalidation if the price continues moving below the 0.382 support.


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GBP/USD Struggles Below 1.3900, USD/CAD Could Extend Gains



GBP/USD started a fresh decline after it failed to surpass the 1.4000 resistance. USD/CAD is rising and it is showing a lot of positive signs above the 1.2800 level.

Important Takeaways for GBP/USD and USD/CAD

• The British Pound started a fresh decline after it was rejected near the 1.4000 area.
• There was a break below a major bullish trend line with support near 1.3910 on the hourly chart of GBP/USD.
• USD/CAD traded towards the 1.2375 support zone before starting an upside correction.
• There was a break above a major bearish trend line with resistance near 1.2455 on the hourly chart.

GBP/USD Technical Analysis

This past week, the British Pound made another attempt to clear the 1.3990 and 1.4000 resistance levels against the US Dollar. The GBP/USD pair failed to gain strength and started a fresh decline below the 1.3950 support zone.

There was a clear break below the 1.3920 support level and the 50 hourly simple moving average. There was also a break below the 1.3850 support level. Moreover, there was a break below a major bullish trend line with support near 1.3910 on the hourly chart of GBP/USD.



The pair traded as low as 1.3817 on FXOpen and it is currently consolidating losses. An initial resistance on the upside is near the 1.3850 level. It is close to the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 1.3959 high to 1.3817 low.

The first major resistance is near the 1.3880 level. The 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 1.3959 high to 1.3817 low is also near 1.3880 level.

The main resistance is now forming near 1.3910 and the 50 hourly simple moving average. A successful close above the 1.3880 and 1.3900 levels could open the doors for a decent increase in the coming sessions.

Conversely, the pair might continue to move down below the 1.3820 and 1.3800 support levels. Any more losses may possibly open the doors for a push towards the 1.3740 support level.


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BTC and XRP ? Correction possibly over



BTC/USD

The price of Bitcoin has been moving sideways from the 17th of March when it came up to $59,600 until the 20th when it paid another revisit to those levels. However, after a failure to break the $60,000 mark to the upside we have seen a rejection that caused a breakout from the symmetrical triangles and a low to $52,924.



Now we are seeing a minor recovery with the price currently being traded at $54,528 and has bounced nicely forming a V shape. The descending move was a five-wave impulse which is why we could have seen the completion of the WXY correction.

In that case, the price is now making its first attempts to establish an uptrend as the 1st wave from the next impulsive wave to the upside started. However, there could still be a possibility of another lower low to the significant $51,940 level.

If we have seen the completion of the 4th wave correction, then the price of Bitcoin is now headed towards the new all-time high, potentially in the zone between $72,000 and $68,000.


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LTC and EOS ? Decrease seen but for how long?



LTC/USD

From the start of the week, the price of Litecoin has been in a decline, coming from its Monday?s high at $197.68 to $170.92 at its lowest point today, which was a decrease of 13.53% It is now stabilizing around $173 after a steep downfall made from yesterday when the price decreased by 12.7% as the price recovered close to the levels of Monday?s high before moving to the downside again.



Looking at the hourly chart, you can see that the bearish count has been validated in which from the start of March we have seen an ABC correction to the upside. In that case, the descending move from the 13th of March is the 3rd wave from the higher degree correction and is now forming as a five-wave move. It appears that could end very soon around the 0.618 Fibonacci level at tje $167 area, but there would be a possibility that the descending might continue to the 0.786 one.

This is because by projecting the length of the first wave from the higher degree correction when the price of Litecoin was $245 and went to $155, we come up with a price target of $143.


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