Daily Market Analysis from NordFX

Forex Forecast and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for March 01-05, 2021


First, a review of last week?s events:

- EUR/USD. As we expected, the speech by the head of the Fed turned out to be quite interesting. Jerome Powell presented to Congress a semi-annual report on monetary policy, from which it followed that not everything is as good as we would like as far as the recovery of the US economy is concerned. The surge in economic activity in the summer of 2020 was followed by the slowsown of the growth rate. The decline in unemployment has slowed down, and household expenditures are not growing either.
After the unrest and turmoil of 2020, a lot of attention is paid to socio-demographic differentiation, but the picture is not the rosiest either. Unemployment among "white" Americans, according to the Fed, is 5.7%, while among Hispanics - 8.6%, and among African Americans it is even higher - 9.2%. There is also discrimination based on gender: for the last month of 2020, men gained 16,000 new jobs, while women, on the contrary, lost 140,000.
All of the above raises certain doubts about the early recovery of the American economy, leads to a decrease in risk sentiment, and strikes a blow on the stock market and the US dollar. Investors are shifting attention to long-term government bonds. Since the beginning of 2021, the yield on 10-year treasuries has jumped from 0.91% to 1.56%, and their growth has become especially noticeable recently. As for stock indices (especially stocks of technology companies), they, accordingly, go down sharply. For example, the S&P500 was losing up to 3.8% in just two days - February 25-26, while the Nasdaq Composite was sinking by more than 3%. The DXY dollar index is also gradually approaching 2018 lows, losing about 9% this year.
In such a situation, most analysts (65%) expected the dollar to weaken and rise to the 1.2200-1.2300 zone, which happened: at the week's high, February 25, the EUR/USD pair was approaching 1.2245. However, then it seems that investors changed their minds and began to realize that the growing yield of long-term Treasury securities directly affects the growth of rates on current consumer lending. And that immediately brings to mind the 2008 mortgage crisis, which marked the beginning of a series of major bankruptcies. As a result, the dollar strengthened a little and the EUR/USD pair dropped to the zone 1.2070-1.2100 - the place where it has already been several times since last December. This can only say about one thing: the confusion of the market and the lack of clarity about the prospects of the European and American economies;

- GBP/USD. As predicted, Prime Minister Boris Johnson's speech on Monday 22 February, as well as the expectation of positive data from the UK labour market on Tuesday 23 February, continued to push the pair GBP/USD to the highs of 2018, raising it to the height of 1.4240.
And of course, the dynamics of the pair could not but be affected by what was happening in the United States. Therefore, repeating the EUR/USD parabola, the GBP/USD pair went south on Thursday February 25, especially since it was overbought, and some reason was simply needed to take profit on the pound.
On Friday, having lost 355 points, the pair found a local bottom at 1.3885. This was followed by a rebound and a finish at 1.3930;

- USD/JPY. It was said last week that this pair was moving within the medium-term side channel 102.60-107.00. Only 35% of experts believed then that the pair had not yet completed its movement to the upper border of this trading range. True, 75% of oscillators and 80% of trend indicators on D1 were on their side, which gave additional weight to this forecast, which turned out to be absolutely correct. The USD/JPY pair recorded a 26-week high at 106.70 on the second half of Friday, February 26. As for the final chord, it sounded at the height of 106.55;

- cryptocurrencies. We have repeatedly written that the presence of large institutional investors in the crypto market is a double-edged sword. On the one hand, they can strongly push the market up, and on the other hand, they can crash the quotes if they fix profits. In addition, the actions and sentiments of such institutions are highly dependent on the actions and sentiments of regulators and other government agencies. We felt all this in full last week.
After bitcoin hit an all-time high of $58,275 on February 21, investors were looking forward to taking the $60,000 high. However, there was a sudden reversal and a sharp drop of 23% to $44,985. Then the rebound to $50,000, and a fall again - to $44,000.
According to many experts, the trigger of the massive profit fixation by "whales" was the statement of the former head of the Fed and now the US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen on the speculative nature of cryptocurrency and the possibility of using it for money laundering. According to analyst Sven Henrich, the head of the Ministry of Finance has actually declared war on bitcoin.
?Digital currencies can provide faster and cheaper payments. But there are many issues to be explored, including consumer protection and money laundering,? Janet Yelen said, also mentioning the possibility of launching the Central Bank's own digital currency (CBDC).
The fall in bitcoin could also have been facilitated by the fall in global indexes of technology companies and the beginning of large-scale vaccinations against coronavirus, but the main thing is the position of the US Government.
According to Bloomberg, against the background of the decline in the bitcoin rate, the head of Tesla and SpaceX, Elon Musk, lost the first place in the ranking of the richest people on the planet. Tesla shares fell by 8.6%, as a result of which Musk lost $15.2 billion. At the same time, the fall in bitcoin, according to Bloomberg, may be partly due to the statement of Musk himself, who called the prices of cryptocurrencies too high. It is not for nothing that they say that a word is silver, and silence is gold. Musk would be better off keeping his mouth shut ?.
Of course, someone loses, and someone finds. Thus, for example, due to technical failures, some customers of the Philippine crypto exchange PDAX were able to buy bitcoin almost 10 times cheaper than the market price, Bitpinas reports. One of the users admitted that he bought bitcoins for 300,000 pesos ($6,150), while the average market price of BTC was about $50,000, after which he transferred the cryptocurrency to his wallet. A day later, PDAX sent him a letter demanding the return of the bitcoins, but the buyer's lawyer claims that "the transaction was legitimate, in accordance with applicable laws, and PDAX cannot withdraw transactions unilaterally."
Another client of this crypto exchange unexpectedly found 40 billion Philippine pesos or about 820 million dollars in his account. It is not reported whether he was able to withdraw this "gift" from PDAX.
In general, the reliability of crypto exchanges is still a rather painful topic. According to BDCenter Digital agency, Kraken, Coinbase and Binance are the safest exchanges. The brokerage company NordFX can also be noted here, whose clients can also make transactions and store deposits in cryptocurrencies. In the 13 years of this broker, it has not had a single hack and not a single penny of client funds has been lost.
On Friday evening, February 26, the BTC/USD pair is trading in the $46,000 zone. The total market capitalization fell over the week from $1,625 billion to $1,410 billion. AND The Crypto Fear & Greed Index has finally come out of strong overbought zone to neutral levels, dropping from 93 to 55.
When it comes to altcoins, there is both good news and bad news. For example, the largest developer of GPUs - American technology company Nvidia announced plans to release a series of graphics cards specifically for mining Ethereum. According to CNBC, they can be expected to appear on sale this March.
But it looks like the hard times will not end for Ripple. One of the world's largest money transfer services, MoneyGram, refused to use the product based on the XRP token due to the claims of the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) against Ripple. Against the backdrop of SEC claims, in addition to MoneyGram, Coinbase and OKCoin, Galaxy Digital, Bitstamp, B2C2, eToro and Kraken have already refused to support the XRP token. Asset management company Grayscale Investments announced the liquidation of an XRP-based investment trust, and 21Shares has removed the Ripple token from its exchange-traded products. As a result, the Ripple lost up to 45% of its value last week, and the XRP/USD pair was trading at $0.42 on the evening of February 26.


As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the views of a number of experts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

- EUR/USD. The figures given in the first part of the review confirm the opinion of the US Federal Reserve management that it is still very, very early to talk about any curtailment of the quantitative easing (QE) program, as well as about raising interest rates. Therefore, the Fed will continue its soft monetary policy, even as inflation expectations rise caused by a doubling of the Fed's balance sheet over the past year.
However, not only the US has the problem of increasing national debt. Europe is experiencing similar problems, and the interest rate there is even lower than on the other side of the Atlantic. The profitability of European government securities is also growing. Thus, the rate on 10-year bonds in Germany has already reached an 11-month high.
In general, we can say that the balance between the problems and achievements of the Old and New Worlds remains on average at the same level, experiencing minor temporary fluctuations, which is reflected in the three-month sideways trend of the EUR/USD pair. If you look at its chart, it can be seen that, since December 2020, most of the time it moves in a fairly narrow trading range of 1.2050-1.2185, with emissions up to 1.1950 and 1.2350.
If we talk about the short term, 70% of analysts believe that the pair will continue to decline to the 1.1950-1.2000 zone. They are supported in this by 75% of oscillators on H4, the remaining 25% give signals that the pair is oversold. As for the oscillators on D1, there are approximately equal shares of red, green and gray-neutral colors. 95% of the trend indicators on H4 and 65% on D1 are painted red.
But graphical analysis on both timeframes gives preference to the upward movement of the pair. Resistance levels are 1.2170 1.2240 and 1.2270. However, after this push to the north, graphical analysis on D1 draws a decline in the pair during March to support at 1.1950.
And now about the events of the coming week, of which there will be quite a few. Firstly, we are waiting for the speeches of the head of the ECB Christine Lagarde on Monday March 01 and the head of the US Federal Reserve Jerome Powell on Thursday March 4. Statistics on the consumer markets of Germany and the EU will be released on March 01, 02 and 04. As for the US macro statistics, the indicators of ISM business activity in the manufacturing and private sectors will be known on Monday and Wednesday. And in addition, data on the labor market will be published on Wednesday and Friday. Moreover, according to forecasts, a significant increase in new jobs created outside the US agricultural sector (NFP) is possible - from 49K to 148K;

- GBP/USD. First, the readings of technical indicators. Oscillators: 90% on H4 are looking south, 10% are in the oversold zone; only 15% are looking to the south on D1, 50% to the north, and 35% are neutral. Trend indicators: 80% look south on H4, 20% look north, 25% look south on D1, 75% look north.
Graphic analysis on D1 draws a side trend in the range 1.3860-1.4240. And it is clear that since the pair finished the previous week closer to the lower border of this channel, it will move upward. 60% of experts agree with this forecast. Resistance levels are 1.3960, 1.4055, 1.4085 and 1.4175.
The remaining 30% believe that the pair will break the lower border of the channel 1.3860, then support around 1.3800 and will go to the 1.3600-1.3760 zone. It should be noted that, when moving from weekly to monthly forecast, the number of supporters of the bears increases to 65%.

- USD/JPY.  The multi-month downtrend of this pair was stopped on January 06, and it turned north, moving to the upward channel. According to the graphical analysis on D1, the USD/JPY pair has almost reached its upper border now, which is in the zone 106.70-107.00, and should soon bounce back to the south. Such a scenario is supported by 25% of the oscillators giving signals about the pair being overbought. It is clear that the remaining 75% of oscillators and 100% of the indicators on both time frames are colored green so far.
As for experts, a third of them sides with the bulls, a third votes for the bears, and a third takes a neutral stance. However, in the transition from weekly to monthly forecast, 75% of analysts vote for the pair to stay within the medium-term trading range of 102.60-107.00 (it was mentioned in the first part of the review), and therefore await its return to its central zone at 105.00. Support levels are 106.10 and 105.70; The remaining 25% of experts believe that the pair will be able to reach the zone of 108.00-108.50;

- cryptocurrencies. The popularity and prominence of cryptocurrencies continues to grow. According to BDCenter Digital, 12 out of 100 Twitter posts are about cryptocurrency. In just the week of February 7-14, Twitter users mentioned bitcoin over 675,000 times. The last record was set on January 10, when the weekly number of posts mentioning bitcoin reached 576,000. In total, the number of cryptocurrency users has stepped over 200 million people from more than 150 countries.
Despite the drop last week, 2021 started off well for bitcoin overall. The pair started at $28,800 on January 1 and is trading at $46,000 at the time of writing, having gained almost 60%. And now, importantly, the Crypto Fear & Greed Index has finally emerged from a strong overbought state, dropping from 93 to neutral 55.
Of course, this does not mean that the quotes of the BTC/USD pair will immediately fly up. However, what is happening gives investors hope for the fulfillment of the positive predictions of many experts and crypto gurus. recall that Lisa Edwards, sister of self-proclaimed bitcoin creator Craig Wright, has predicted that the first cryptocurrency would rise to $142,000. Based on Elliott Wave Theory, she suggested that digital gold would rise to $90,000 by May 2021, decline to $55,000 by January 2022, and skyrocketing to $142,000 in March 2023.
According to the co-founder of Morgan Creek Digital Assets Anthony Pompliano, the main cryptocurrency may reach $500 thousand by the end of this decade, and even $1 million in the long term.
However, the growth of cryptocurrency quotes may stop due to the rapid recovery of the global economy after the recession caused by the coronavirus epidemic. In this case, central banks will begin to roll back their quantitative easing programs, raise interest rates, stop buying assets and printing cheap money. As a result, investment flows into bitcoin, as one of the most attractive safe havens, can dry up very quickly.
So, what did we observe last week - a temporary correction or the beginning of a new "crypto winter"? The question is still open. However, the overwhelming majority of experts (70%) believe that the BTC/USD pair will reach the $ 60,000-75,000 zone in spring. The pessimism of the remaining 30% of analysts is expressed in the figures of $30,000-35,000.


NordFX Analytical Group


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market

Forex Forecast and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for March 15-19, 2021


First, a review of last week?s events:

- EUR/USD. Recall that  the head of the Fed Jerome Powell literally brought down the American stock markets with his speech on February 4. Powell stayed indifferent to the surge in US Treasury yields, which closed at an annual high. At the same time, he hinted at the possibility of premature tightening of monetary policy.
And although the head of the Fed stressed that the economy is far from overheating, and he does not yet see the need to raise the interest rate, the market has had a hint of a possible change in monetary policy. In response, the Treasury yields rushed up with the dollar, and the stock market rolled down. The S&P500 lost over 120 points and the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost over 300 points.
And then, everything changed on Tuesday March 09. Strong growth in technology stocks, positive statistics from the labor market, growth in household assets and a bill signed by US President Joe Biden on a new stimulus package for $1.9 trillion pushed the American stock market up. The S&P500 index not only fully recovered from losses, but also updated its historical high, reaching the mark of 3.960. As for long-term treasuries, their profitability, on the contrary, has stabilized. And this despite the fact that the volume of submitted applications exceeded the volume of the issue by 2.38 times, and foreign investors purchased about 20% of securities of the total volume of $38 billion.
The EUR/USD pair reached a height of 1.1990 on Thursday March 11 due to these factors. However, it failed to reach the 1.2000 level. The fall of the pair and the weakening of the euro was facilitated by the statement of the ECB management on the increase in the rate of buying bonds under the PEPP (Pandemic Emergency Purchase Program). But it turned out to be not convincing enough, and nothing was said about scaling up the PEPP. As a result, the fall of the pair was insignificant, and it ended the week at the level of 1.1950; 

- GBP/USD. More and more experts are wondering if the pound has passed its high on February 24. Is it time to consolidate with the dollar? The British currency has shown an impressive growth of 2830 points against its American ?colleague? (from 1.1410 to 1.4240) starting from the third decade of March 2020. And we have been observing the sideways movement of the GBP/USD pair along the Pivot Point of 1.3900 for the last two weeks. The upper border of the trading range is drawn quite clearly: this is the resistance at 1.4000. Two support levels can be considered as the lower one: the nearest one - 1.3850 and the next one - 1.3775.
The GBP/USD chart of the last week is very similar to the EUR/USD chart. This suggests that both the pound and the euro are not so much independent players in the market now as hostages of the US Federal Reserve's monetary policy and rates on US government bonds. Having started the five-day week at 1.3840, the pair was moving within the above range for the whole week, and set the last chord at 1.3925;

- USD/JPY. The yen has passed one milestone after another in recent weeks, and the USD/JPY pair reached the eight-month highs. Many traders are afraid to open both long and short positions in such a situation. On the one hand, the pair was already overbought, and on the other, it could still fly further upward by inertia. This is what happened in fact: it first rose to the level of 109.25, then a correction to 108.35 followed, and a new rise to the horizon of 109.00, where the pair ended the working week; 

- cryptocurrencies. Bitcoin peaked at $58,340 on February 21, after which it pulled back to $43,160, shrinking by 26%. According to Material Indicators, this decline was used by whales and institutions to buy assets from small investors. For example, the number of orders for the purchase of BTC in the amount from $0.1 million to $1 million reached record values on the Binance crypto exchange. And now, twenty days later, on March 12, Bitcoin broke the $58,000 bar again. However, at the time of writing the review, It could not update the historical high, stopping at $58,240
The BTC/USD pair rose last week amid the rise in the US stock market. Although, most likely, this is only a formal reason, and not a real reason for the activation of the bulls. It was clear that they would definitely make an attempt to rise above $60,000. And the only question was when it would happen.
According to CryptoQuant, the demand for bitcoins continues to grow, and their number on exchanges has fallen to a two-year low. As Bloomberg experts point out in their February report, bitcoin is becoming an increasingly popular asset among a wide variety of investors and is gradually replacing gold from their portfolios. According to the authors of the report, the reduction in the range of price fluctuations signals that the main cryptocurrency has actually become an alternative to traditional investment assets.
The overall capitalization of the crypto market is also committed to new heights, along with bitcoin. It grew from $1444 billion to $1756 billion over the week. And now the volume of $2 trillion will become an important psychological level for it.
Interestingly, despite the weekly growth of the BTC/USD pair by 20%, the Crypto Fear & Greed Index, on the contrary, fell from 77 to 70, which may indicate the general bullish mood of the market.
And another interesting observation. Bitcoin's market dominance has declined from 70.4% to 61.4% since early 2021. The indicators of altcoins from the TOP-10 have also gone down or remained at the same levels. But the total capitalization of smaller tokens has risen from 10.3% to 14.4%. It is unlikely that these coins can arouse the interest of large investors. Therefore, such statistics can only indicate that players have begun to use them more actively for short-term speculation.


As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the views of a number of experts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

- EUR / USD A meeting of the US Federal Reserve will take place on March 16-17. We are waiting for the Summary of Economic Forecasts from the Open Market Committee (FOMC), the decision on the interest rate, commentary on monetary policy and a press conference by the Fed management following the meeting. The interest rate is likely to remain unchanged at 0.25%. Therefore, the regulator's forecasts will be of particular interest. High expectations will once again highlight the gap between the pace of economic recovery in the US and the Eurozone. Investors will also be concerned about the possibility of tightening monetary policy and the attitude of the Fed management to changes in government bond yields. Consolidation of 10-year yields in the 1.5-1.6% range will help the stock market and push the EUR/USD pair above 1.2000.
So far, the advantage is on the side of the dollar. 70% of experts, supported by graphical analysis, 85% of oscillators and 80% of trend indicators on D1, expect the pair to drop to the 1.1800-1.1850 zone. Support here is still the 200-day SMA at 1.1826. The nearest support is 1.1900.
An alternative view is held by 30% of analysts, supported by graphical analysis on H4. As for the technical indicators on this time frame, their readings are still confusing. Note that when switching from a weekly to a monthly forecast, the number of experts supporting bulls increases to 60%. Resistance levels are 1.2025, 1.2060, 1.2170, 1.2200 and 1.2270;

- GBP/USD. In addition to the meeting of the US Fed, a meeting of the Bank of England will take place on Thursday March 18. It is likely that its results will not affect investors as much as those of their peers on the other side of the Atlantic. However, information on the course of the British economic recovery and its prospects will certainly be given. The market will also be concerned about what is going on in relations with the European Union after Brexit.
The opinions of experts are divided equally at the moment. A third of them, together with graphical analysis on H4, believe that the pair will hold within the 1.3775-1.4000 trading range. Another third, supported by graphical analysis on D1, expects a rise to the February 24 high of 1.4240. And finally, the remaining third is waiting for the pair to fall to the 1.3600 zone;

- USD/JPY. It should become clear in the coming week whether the Japanese currency will stop its decline, and the USD/JPY pair - its rapid rise. There are three determinant factors: the yield of American bonds, the US Federal Reserve meeting and the meeting of the Bank of Japan on Friday, March 19, at which it should determine its policy for the near future.
The rise in US bond yields is pushing the yen down, and the Japanese regulator is expected to react to this catastrophic collapse. Whether the BOJ will insist on controlling the yield curve is open for now.
It should be noted that the last fall in the yen and the growth of USD/JPY on March 12 took place at increased volumes. This indicates that the interest of major players in the continuation of the uptrend of the pair has still not dried up. The trend can be reversed down by either the consolidation of the yield on US securities, or an active sale of risky assets.
But at the time of this writing, 55% of experts expect that the pair will still be able to rise to the 109.50-110.00 zone. 20% are in favor of sideways movement and 25% are for the fall of the pair. Almost 100% of the trend indicators on both H4 and D1 are painted red. Among the oscillators on H4, there are 80% of those, but on D1, 35% are already giving signals that the pair is overbought, which indicates an imminent possible downward correction. In the transition from a weekly to a monthly forecast, 80% of analysts are already expecting the pair to decline and return to the 105.00 zone,. Support levels are 108.35, 106.65, 106.10 and 105.70;

- cryptocurrencies. Recall that in early March, the head of the crypto bank Galaxy Digital Mike Novogratz sharply changed the forecast for the BTC rate for the end of 2021.  ?It feels like,? said the banker, ?we?ll stay for a bit between $42,000 and $60,000, and then see the next big jump to $100,000.
The Bloomberg team is also positive about the further rate of the main cryptocurrency. "After the coin broke above $50,000, it got the opportunity to test higher values. Demand for this asset is increasing, and its macroeconomic indicators are improving,? they say in their February report. According to Bloomberg analysts, bitcoin will be able to reach $100,000 this year, and its value will also continue to rise in the long term.
So how long will bitcoin hang out, in Mike Novogratz's words, between $42,000 and $60,000? Or are we on the eve of the big jump?
A number of experts are pessimistic. As the reason, they point to miners who are buying more and more video cards on new chips, which leads to higher prices and a shortage of such cards on the market. This situation is somewhat reminiscent of the end of December 2017 - January 2018, when the mining boom ended with a market collapse, the destruction of many miners and the onset of a crypto winter. There may not be a new winter this time, experts say, but strong frosts are not entirely out of the question.
In the longer term, electricity costs for mining will also hinder the growth of digital assets. They are constantly growing, and this process consumes energy comparable to that of a country like the Netherlands already. At some point, it will require the energy of the whole world to generate just one unit. And this, according to futurologists from Singularity University, will become an insurmountable obstacle for the crypto market.
However, if there are bear pessimists, then there will certainly be bull optimists. So, according to the head of ARK Investment Cathie Wood, the price of bitcoin is most correlated with real estate prices  at the moment. But in the future, she believes, bitcoin will become similar to low-risk instruments like bonds and will enter the recommended portfolio of investors. ?I think the first cryptocurrency will behave like fixed income markets,? Wood said to CNBC. ?We have survived a 40-year bond bull market. And we won't be surprised if this new asset class becomes part of the investment portfolio. Perhaps it will be 60% stocks, 20% bonds and 20% cryptocurrency.?
The forecast, according to which the bitcoin rate may reach $1 million or more in the next 10 years, was announced by the CEO of the Kraken crypto exchange Jesse Powell. ?Right now we are only guessing, but if you value bitcoin in dollars, then you must understand that its value tends to infinity", he said. In a dialogue with Bloomberg reporters, the head of Kraken also said that bitcoin could eventually replace all major fiat currencies that are not backed by gold and other precious metals. However, he agreed that there is a risk of sharp market fluctuations, and that prices could "rise or fall by 50% any day." Therefore, according to Powell, when investing in bitcoin, it is necessary to be ready to keep it in your portfolio for at least five years.


NordFX Analytical Group


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market

Forex PAMM Service


It is possible to make money on currency fluctuations not only by trading. Forex PAMM services allow even those who have no previous trading experience to profit from changes in prices of foreign currency assets. On the other hand, for a professional trader, the Forex PAMM service is an opportunity to increase the size of their trading capital.

What is a PAMM account

PAMM account (from English PAMM - Percent Allocation Management Module) is a special investment account connected to the account of the managing trader. The essence of its work is simple. The trader makes an offer (offer of cooperation with clearly defined conditions), and investors contribute their funds to such an account. As a result of the trading conducted by the managing trader, the profits obtained are distributed among these parties in the proportion specified in the offer.

Key participants in PAMM services

There are three main parties involved in investing in PAMM services:
1. Managing trader. This is a broker's client who has a certain trading experience, confirmed by statistics.
2. Investor. A person who invests their funds into the account of a managing trader. Profits from the results of managing trader's work.
3. PAMM service. This is a broker, for example, NordFX, where trading and financial settlements between the manager and the investor are carried out.

It should be noted that one investor can simultaneously distribute their funds among several managers, forming an optimal investment portfolio, and one manager can accept funds from several investors at the same time.

PAMM services from a manager's point of view

Any trader can become a manager. To do this, you need to register with a broker, for example, NordFX, open a PAMM account, create an offer that will reflect the trader's commission, top up the account and start trading.

By and large, the activities of a manager are not much different from standard trading, but there is one exception. All trader's results will be recorded and displayed for all to see in the form of detailed statistics. It is necessary so that investors can assess the potential of the manager and decide how well the manager's trading strategies are suitable for the investment.

In the NordFX brokerage company, investors can evaluate a manager's trading by almost 50 different parameters that allow them to predict not only potential profit, but also possible risks. 

The managing trader will receive their share of the profit based on the results of their work. The rest will be distributed among all investors in the proportion specified in the offer. Moreover, all this is closely watched by the broker who provided the platform for the PAMM service, so that the trader does not have to calculate anything manually. There are no risks of conflict between the manager and investors due to miscalculations either.

What is the main advantage of a PAMM account from the manager's point of view? First of all, this is an opportunity to significantly increase your income from trading on the international Forex market. In addition to their own funds, the manager will work with investors' money and receive a percentage of the profit for this. The better the trading results, the higher the profit, the more investors will invest their funds in this manager.

As for the flaws, there are none. The manager conducts their usual trading, risks their own funds as usual  and does not bear any additional responsibility to investors for the results of trading. If successful, the number of investors who want to join the trader will grow. However, if the manager is trading at a loss, there will be no people willing to join their account.

PAMM accounts from an investor's point of view

Not only those who trade on their own, but also those who, for some reason, cannot engage in trading, can make money on the international Forex market. For example, you can't make money, you don't have talent, you don't want to study, you don't have time, and so on. But even in these cases, not all is lost.

The fact is that Forex offers almost limitless opportunities for earning money. It is one of the most liquid markets, with a daily turnover of trillions of US dollars, and many traders are keen to work in it. There is no supply of real assets here, and a trader can conclude a sell transaction with numerous financial instruments, even without possessing them.

For an investor, the Forex market is an opportunity to generate passive income by investing their funds in successful managers. Although this type of work cannot be called completely passive. The fact is that the investor will have to perform a certain amount of analytical work. But it will be connected not with how to predict market fluctuations in currencies, but with how to correctly choose a trader who will be entrusted with managing investor's funds.

What are the main advantages of investing in PAMM?

There are several of them:
1. Investing in Forex through PAMM is very convenient. You, as an investor, only need to choose a suitable manager and connect to their account.
2. Full automation. You don't have to deal with any calculations and settlements. The whole process is fully automated on the broker platform.
3. Control by the broker. The risks of cheating on the part of the trader are excluded. Everything is controlled by the service that provides PAMM investment services. For example, the manager does not have access to the funds that are on the investment accounts connected to him. He or she does not have the slightest opportunity to steal investors' funds and disappear with them in an unknown direction.
4. Investors are offered a convenient investment format. The trading history and comprehensive multifactorial statistics for all managing traders are available, which allows you to evaluate their trading strategies and make competent and weighted decisions.
5. Investing in Forex using PAMM is possible without knowledge of this market. As a depositor, you do not need to dive into the intricacies of trading. All this knowledge is necessary only for the manager.
6. Possibility to create your own investment portfolio. Forex PAMM accounts make it possible for you to diversify your investments by choosing several traders with different trading styles and ratios of profit and risk.

Choosing a manager or how to create your portfolio

Investing through PAMM can be quite profitable. However, there are moments that require effort from those who are going to engage in such activities. The fact is that Forex PAMM accounts, including those at the NordF X broker, are a variety of managers. And the choice is not only about finding the most acceptable conditions in terms of the offer. As mentioned above, investing in the Forex market requires a thorough analysis of the trader?s statistics.

There are three main types of trading strategies that managers use: aggressive, balanced, conservative.

Aggressive managers usually perform well in terms of profit, which can reach hundreds or thousands of percent. But, accordingly, they have quite high risks and large drawdowns. Such accounts are more likely than others to suffer serious losses and can even lead to a complete loss of capital.

Balanced managers show average income. But the risks are also relatively low. Such PAMM Forex accounts suffer losses much less often than aggressive ones.

Finally, conservative accounts show low income. At the same time, investments in Forex with such managers pose the lowest risks. Such traders usually conduct their trading activities the longest, which is reflected in their history on the ?showcase? of the PAMM service.

Which option should one choose?

This is where we come to the need to create an investment portfolio. If you plan to invest using PAMM technologies, investments are not much different from buying stocks or other instruments. Classic portfolios usually include different asset categories, both low and high-risk.

When working with PAMM brokers, such as NordFX, your task is to assemble approximately the same portfolio where risks and potential returns are balanced. That is, you can invest in all the categories of managers described above, from aggressive to conservative. As a result, you will be able to get a fairly high profit with limited risks.

In terms of percentage, there are many guidelines. Some experts believe that it would be ideal to allocate only 20% of the total account to aggressive accounts, and divide the rest between balanced and conservative. However, this ratio is not a must. You can determine how aggressive your portfolio will be and make calculations based on it.

Some recommendations for choosing PAMM accounts

And now back to the question of how to choose the most suitable Forex PAMM account. There are several important criteria to pay attention to:
1. Age of the PAMM account. This indicator is particularly important for those investors who plan to invest in aggressive strategies. The longer such managers show positive results, the more reliable they are.
2. Average monthly expected return. This indicator is made up of average monthly profits for previous periods. This way you can see how effective the trader's strategy is and what style of trading they use.
3. Maximum drawdown. This is an equally important indicator that reflects the investor's risks. The higher the maximum drawdown, the more aggressive the trader's style is, and the higher the probability of losing your funds.

Important criteria for evaluation are:
1. The used leverage. Naturally, the higher it is, the greater the load on the deposit, the greater the risks.
2. Limiting risks by the managing trader. If they make up more than 30% of the deposit, the manager either does not use stop orders, or shifts or deletes them in the expectation of a price reversal.
3. The use of various aggressive wealth management systems. The most famous in this case is the Martingale, which is described in numerous textbooks and articles on Forex. Some managers indicate the use of this approach in their offers. But even if this is not the case, it is possible to understand that the manager applies a similar method by loading the deposit and increasing losses during periods of long recoilless trends in traded currency pairs.

When planning to invest in a PAMM service, it is necessary to take into account the ratio of risk and return. This applies to a greater extent to those who will compose their own investment portfolios of managers. Many experts say that the profitability should always be 2-3 times higher than the risk. If the profitability is equal to the risk, you may face such a situation when after a certain period of time, your total profit will be equal to ... 0.

When working with PAMM services, it is very important to establish in advance the conditions for exit, that is, the completion of work with one or another manager (at least temporarily). Various criteria can be used for this, including:
1. Exceeding the maximum drawdown. This is one of the important indicators of risk that you should focus on. It says that the trader has started to work even more aggressively and there are chances of receiving serious losses.
2. Change of the manager's trading system. This is not exactly a reason to part with the manager. Rather, it is a reason for analyzing and re-evaluating the terms of this cooperation and the volume of investments. Perhaps the trader's trading system has become more flexible and efficient than in the original version. In this case, the manager can not only remain in the portfolio, but also get a larger share of investments. However, if irrational, from your point of view, changes have been made to the system, it's time to think about stopping such cooperation.


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Forex Forecast and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for April 05 - 09, 2021


First, a review of last week?s events:

- EUR/USD. The U.S. economy continues to recover vigorously. This is evidenced by the impressive data from the labor market. Thus, the number of new jobs created outside the agricultural sector (NFP) has almost doubled compared to the previous period (growth from 468K to 916K) and, moreover, has exceeded the forecast (647K) by almost a third. The ISM Manufacturing PMI has risen from 60.8 to 64.7. Also, according to the ADP report, the employment rate in the private sector has increased from 176K to 517K. All this suggests that fiscal stimulation of the economy and the injection of money into it is working. But is it good for the dollar?
Of course, this scheme also includes yields on long-term US government bonds, as well as the prospects for monetary policy for the next few years. Investors are sensitive to statements by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell on the possibility of curtailing the quantitative easing (QE) program and raising the interest rate.
On the one hand, according to the statements of the management, the Federal Reserve System does not intend to raise interest rates until at least 2023. The Fed is not going to change other parameters of the quantitative easing (QE) program either, believing that injecting $1.9 trillion into the economy will be quite enough. But on the other hand, US President Joe Biden presented a massive $2.25 trillion infrastructure spending plan on Wednesday March 31, along with a financing scheme through tax increases. If, indeed, these funds arise not at the expense of the printing press, but at the expense of an increase in the tax load, this will mean the curtailment of QE, and will entail the flow of capital from the stock market to the government bond market.
But while this is all just planning, the market has frozen in anticipation, and the EUR/USD pair has moved into a sideways trend. As predicted by the majority of experts (70%), the dollar continued to strengthen at the beginning of last week, and the pair came close to 1.1700. But then, largely thanks to Biden's new plan, it turned around and went up. However, this rebound can hardly be called a trend change. The pair just returned to where it had been on March 25-30. It completed the trading week in the same zone, at the level of 1.1760;

- GBP/USD. In general, the chart of this pair was similar to the chart of EUR/USD, with only one fundamental difference. If the euro continues to retreat against the dollar, the British pound, albeit with difficulty, is trying to hold the defense. This time, the UK GDP growth for the fourth quarter of 2020 to 1.3%, as well as the revised upward index of business activity came to help it.
Let us remind that, when making a forecast for the previous week, 40% of experts voted for the strengthening of the dollar, 10% for the strengthening of the pound and 50% for the sideways trend. And in general, everyone was right. The pair both fell to 1.3705, and grew to 1.3850, and eventually finished only 40 points above the start. Having started the five-day week at 1.3790, it completed it at 1.3830;

- USD/JPY. Most analysts (60%) had expected this pair to consolidate above the 110.00 horizon. 100% of trend indicators and 75% of oscillators had agreed with this scenario. And it turned out to be absolutely true. The pair has been relentlessly moving north since January 6 and it renewed this year's high on Wednesday March 31, reaching 110.95.  The long-awaited correction to the south did not happen again, and the pair ended the trading session at 110.65;

- cryptocurrencies. Bitcoin is storming the $60,000 threshold again. At the time of writing, the maximum it has reached so far is $60,170. However, as soon as the benchmark cryptocurrency approaches this milestone, another wave of sales follows, causing a pullback. However, these ebbs are not large enough. And this suggests that there are fewer and fewer people willing to part with bitcoin at this level. Investors are waiting for a leap up. And these small corrections just give them the opportunity to replenish their stock of tokens on the pullback.
A huge number of bitcoins are flowing into cold wallets, which indicates that the "whales" institutions are set for the further growth of BTC and see it as an asset for long-term investments. The news background also contributes to this. ?We see Square, Tesla, MicroStrategy and others buying bitcoin,? says ARK Invest CEO Catherine Wood. - Now cryptocurrencies determine part of the business of these companies. And the announcement of the sale of Tesla for BTC will allow you to do business in any region without wasting time and money on exchanging fiat currencies." The major payment system, PayPal, has also joined the crypto race. it intends to provide its customers with the opportunity to pay in bitcoins in all stores that are partners of the company, and there are approximately 29 million of them around the world. According to Reuters, in addition to the main cryptocurrency, PayPal also plans to introduce support for payments in Bitcoin Cash, Ethereum and Litecoin.
We can talk about the gradual adoption of cryptocurrencies in various sectors of the economy at the moment. However, large investors are still very worried about the attitude of regulators to this type of assets. And, first and foremost, the US authorities. According to a number of analysts, while bitcoin and the main altcoins act as a store of value and speculation, the American regulator turns a blind eye to it. But as soon as bitcoin begins to compete with the dollar as a means of payment and international payments even a little, the attitude of the authorities can change dramatically. And it is not at all excluded that the initiatives of PayPal and other payment systems will cause a negative reaction from them. An example of this is Facebook's Libra, which was strangled in the bud.
In the meantime, as mentioned, the main cryptocurrency is trying to gain a foothold above $60,000, and the total market capitalization is trying to exceed the most important psychological level of $2.0 trillion. It reached a volume of $1.993 billion on the first day of April, but it rolled back to the level of $1.936 billion on Friday. It is noteworthy that the dominance of bitcoin in the market has slightly decreased over the past 7 days: from 59.56% to 57.88%. Moreover, its share in the crypto market literally fell to 55.50% on April 1. The reason for this is the closure of long positions when the BTC/USD pair reached the horizon of $60,000.
The Crypto Fear & Greed Index has started to rise again. It rose by 20 points over the week, from 54 to 74, and came close to the strongly overbought zone.


As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the views of a number of experts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

- EUR/USD. Europe is preparing for a new wave of coronavirus. The rate of vaccination, although growing, is slow. Only 16.5% of the EU population has received at least one injection so far, compared to 45.6% in the USA. The situation could be aggravated by another month of lockdowns. Coupled with the absence in the EU of a plan to stimulate an economy similar to the American one, it could provide additional support to the dollar and put pressure on the euro.
Analysts from Japanese bank Daiwa Securities note that dollars are now being bought not only by speculators but also by asset managers. And in their opinion, the USD DXY index will go up while the American economy improves and Treasury yields rise. This scenario is also supported by experts from Nordea Markets, according to whom the EUR/USD pair is expected to decline to the level of 1.1500.
On the other hand, excessive US stimulus measures could overheat the US economy. In addition, according to the WTO estimates, the surplus of dollars in the country will lead to an increase in demand for imports by 11.4%. Most of this demand will be met by exports from Asia and Europe. And if the countries of the Eurozone radically accelerate the rate of vaccination, then the preponderance will be on the side of the European currency.
It is clear that graphical analysis, 75% of oscillators and 95% of trend indicators on D1 are still colored red at the moment. However, the remaining 25% of the oscillators are already signaling that the pair is oversold. The picture is completely different On H4: about half of the indicators have switched to green.
As for the opinion of experts, the pair is expected to grow next week by 55% of them, however, when switching to the monthly forecast, their number grows to 65%. The bears' goals are 1.1700 and the low of November 2020 at 1.1600. The goals of the bulls are 1.1885 and 1.2000.
As for the events of the coming week, we can mention the publication of the ISM index of business activity in the services sector on Monday 05 April, the publication of the minutes of the US Fed's FOMS meeting on Wednesday 07 April and a speech of the head of the organization, Jerome Powell, on Thursday 08 April;

- GBP/USD. The British currency may continue to grow, as it did in the first two months of 2021. Especially so if there is a return to the country of major capital that fled from it due to Brexit. The pound is also supported by the successes of the early stages of vaccination against COVID-19. However, this may not be enough due to the problems after the UK exit from the EU, the impressive trade deficit and the country's budget deficit.
However, the majority of experts (65%) are quite optimistic about the future of the British currency at the moment. 15% predict its weakening, and the remaining 20% insist on a sideways trend.
The 1.3850 level can be designated as the support/resistance zone of the last eight weeks. It is the lateral movement along it that graphical analysis draws. On H4, the borders of the trading range look like 1.3755-1.3850. On D1, they are naturally much wider, 1.3670?1.4000.
85% of oscillators and 70% of trend indicators on D1 look north. Also, the green has an advantage among trend indicators on H4: those are 75%. But as for the oscillators, here 60% are painted in neutral gray, and 20% - in red and green;

- USD/JPY. It has been repeatedly written that the rate of this pair is greatly influenced by the yield of US Treasuries. However, the Bank of Japan has not been able to decide how to respond to rising yields on US securities and what to do with its own. If the yield on 10-year US bonds and commodity prices continue to rise, and the Japanese regulator does not respond to this, it could hit the yen hard. And it has already suffered quite tangible losses, having lost more than 800 points to the dollar over the past three months.
Currently 85% of the trend indicators on H4 and 100% on D1 are facing north. 60% of the oscillators on H4 and 65% on D1 are looking in the same direction, the rest signal that the pair is overbought.
And a very interesting and unexpected picture emerged during a survey of analysts. Giving a weekly forecast, 70% of them were in favor of a correction to the south and 30% - for a sideways trend. The number of votes cast for the growth of the pair is 0. Moreover, when switching to a monthly forecast, the number of bears' supporters grows to 90%. The graphical forecast on both timeframes also supports the bearish scenario. Support levels are 110.35, 109.85, 109.00 and 108.50. The nearest resistance level is 111.00, the targets of the bulls are 111.70 and 112.20;

- cryptocurrencies. As has been noted many times, the "whales" store large stocks of bitcoins in cold wallets. According to Glassnode, not only the volume of frozen crypto assets is growing, but also the number of such long-term investors. For example, the Norwegian billionaire Oystein Stray Spetalen changed his attitude towards bitcoin in just one day! Back on March 18, he actively demanded that the EU authorities ban the cryptocurrency. And a day later ... he became an investor in the Norwegian crypto-exchange Miraiex, stating that "when the facts change, I also change." Another Norwegian billionaire, Kjell Inge Rokke, who opened a special company to invest in bitcoin, may have caused this turnaround. "I can?t let him make money, but me not," Spetalen said.
So, will there be an opportunity to make money on bitcoin anytime soon? During the current cycle, the price of the cryptocurrency has risen by almost 500% since October 2020 and has updated highs above $60,000. Bitcoin rallied during the first two months of 2021 but ran into a hurdle in March. However, according to a number of experts, historical data indicate that after the March rollback bitcoin's growth may continue in April. ?The season may be the determining factor. - Danny Scott, head of CoinCorner exchange, said in a conversation with Forbes. - April always stands out because it marks the end of the UK and US tax period. If we start from historical information, April may well end with an upswing."
So, the data shows that bitcoin has risen by an average of 51% in April over the past 10 years. If this scenario is repeated, its price may be around of $80,000 by the end of the month. There were only two negative months of April: in 2014 (minus 6%) and in 2015 (minus 4%). But both of these times happened on bearish cycles, and therefore it is worth taking into account the "current sentiment in the industry." ?Now we are, by and large, experiencing a bullish period, and momentum is consistently forming every week,? said Scott. If we apply Fibonacci levels to the charts of the BTC/USD pair, then the next targets for it may be the levels of $73,000 and $92,000.
It is appropriate to quote here the opinion of the popular cryptocurrency analyst Willy Woo, who said that we will see the final stage of the explosive growth of the first cryptocurrency rate this year. But it will also be the last one for a three-year bull cycle. Now the bitcoin rate is at a local bottom and there is no point in selling your BTC reserves, Woo thinks. ?You have to be crazy to sell right now. At the bottom, bitcoin is now being bought up in huge volumes,? the analyst noted, citing the statistics of the Coinbase cryptocurrency exchange as an example. It is surprising that with such optimism of individual crypto enthusiasts, 70% of analysts expect not growth, but, on the contrary, a fall in the BTC/USD pair to the $50,000 mark during April.
And in conclusion of the review, we present you the next "miracle device" in our traditional micro-heading "Crypto Life Hacks". A group of enthusiasts adapted the Game Boy portable game console for cryptocurrency mining. A video about this was released on a YouTube channel. Only its 4 MHz Sharp processor was used directly for mining. However, this invention is unlikely to make the craftsmen millionaires: tests have shown that with a bitcoin rate of about $55,000, they will need 50 thousand years to mine $1.


NordFX Analytical Group


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market

Super Lottery: NordFX Gives Away 100,000 USD to Traders




The $100,000 Super Lottery was launched by the brokerage company NordFX among its clients on April 1. The name speaks for itself: 100 cash prizes of $500, $1,000, $2,500 and a super prize of $ 20,000 will be drawn by the year end.

It is quite easy to take part in the lottery and get a chance to win one or even several of these prizes. It is enough to have a Pro account in NordFX (and for those who do not have it - register and open a new one), top it up with $200 and... just trade.

Having made a trading turnover of only 2 lots in Forex currency pairs or gold (or 4 lots in silver), the trader will automatically receive a virtual lottery ticket. The number of lottery tickets for one participant is not limited. The more deposits and the greater the turnover, the more lottery tickets the participant will have, and the greater their chances of becoming a winner of the prize money.

Unlike trader contests, there is no need for a lottery participant to show exceptional trading results. In this case, both experienced professionals and beginners have equal chances of winning. And they can either use the received prize money in further trading, or take it out without any restrictions.

70 prizes of $500 each, 20 prizes of $1,000 each, 10 prizes of $2,500 and 1 super prize of $20,000 will be drawn. The draws will be held on July 1, October 1, 2021 and January 3, 2022. For more details, visit the NordFX website.

Notice: These materials are not investment recommendations or guidelines for working in financial markets and are intended for informational purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of deposited funds.


#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market

New Mobile App from NordFX




The specialists of the NordFX brokerage company have developed a new convenient mobile app that allows you to conduct full-fledged trading in the financial markets without having to switch to other platforms.

The app supports 12 languages and contains all the functionality traders need, which they can use in just a few clicks. The trading platform integrates indicators and other tools for advanced technical analysis. In addition, the application includes an economic calendar, as well as options for opening and verifying an account, depositing and withdrawing funds.

The line of trading instruments includes 33 Forex currency pairs, gold, silver, Crude and Brent oil, as well as the main cryptocurrency pairs: Bitcoin (BTC/USD), Ethereum (ETH/USD), Ripple (XRP/USD) and Litecoin (LTC/USD).

For all the inquiries, please contact Support support@nordfx.com

You can download the NordFX mobile app from Google Play

as well as from the App Store


Notice: These materials are not investment recommendations or guidelines for working in financial markets and are intended for informational purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of deposited funds.


#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market

Forex Forecast and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for April 26 - 30, 2021


First, a review of last week?s events:

- EUR/USD. The US economy is showing impressive growth. Europe, on the other hand, is in a widespread lockdown and, apparently, is experiencing a second recession. The share of those who received at least one COVID-19 vaccine in the EU is 25.1%, while in the United States there are 2.5 times more of them, 63.2%. Can the euro grow in such a situation? Only 25% of experts answered positively to this question last week, and they turned out to be right: the pairEUR / USD reached the level of 1.2080 on Tuesday, April 20.
The majority of analysts (50%) believed that the bulls and the bears would be engaged in ?tug of war? across the 1.2000 line. And they also turned out to be not far from the truth: the pair fluctuated up/down in the range of 1.1995-1.2080 from Tuesday until the end of the week. Although, of course, the victory remained with the bulls, since the last chord of the trading session sounded near the high of the last seven weeks at 1.2100.
There are two main reasons for these dynamics. The first one is in America, the second one is on the other side of the Atlantic, in Europe.
On the one hand, the yield on long-term US Treasury bonds continues to fall, and along with it the US currency continues to weaken. The dollar index against a basket of six major currencies (DXY) declined to 91.0, down 230 points from this year's high of 93.3. This fuels the risk sentiment of investors and continues to push the major US stock indexes up. This happens even despite the proposal of US President Joe Biden to almost double (from 20% to 39.6%) the capital gains tax for citizens with income of $1 million or more.
On the other hand, the euro was supported by positive forecasts for the rate of vaccination in Europe, in particular the news that Pfizer will increase the supply of vaccines to the EU by 100 million doses. The yield on German bonds is growing, which are beginning to catch up with their competitors from the United States. Stronger than expected statistics on business activity in the Eurozone helped the bulls on EUR/USD as well. Analysts polled by Reuters expected on average the PMI to decline from 53.2 points to 52.8. However, it rose to 53.7 in April;

- GBP/USD. First, a few words about another pair, GBC/USD, which may appear in the foreseeable future. While in some countries, regulators ban cryptocurrencies (for example, in Turkey), in others they are trying to put them at their service. The Bank for International Settlements (BIS) has recently conducted a survey and it has turned out that of 66 central banks, 52 are thinking about their own digital currency. And one of these reflective regulators is the Bank of England, backed by one of the country's largest financial conglomerates, Barclays.
The digital pound has already received a playful name "Britcoin", which makes those who know what "Brit Milah" smile. For those who are not in the know, let us explain: this is a rite of circumcision among religious Jews. However, if Brit Milah is rooted in the deep past, then Britcoin is the digital future of the UK that has broken away from the EU. 
But until the GBC/USD pair has appeared in the list of trading instruments, let us return to its ?older sister?, the GBP/USD pair. It went up at the beginning of the week, thanks to the weakening dollar, like EUR/USD. The pair reached a height of 1.4010 on Tuesday, having added 170 points. However, it did not manage to fix above the 1.4000 horizon: the pound lost all its advantage two days later, and the pair dropped to the level of 1.3825. At the very end of the trading week, the pound was helped by strong statistics on business activity in the services sector: the Markit index rose from 56.3 to 60.1 (against the forecast of 59.0) over the month, thanks to which the pair grew slightly and completed the five-day period at 1.3885;

- USD/JPY. Recall that we talked in the previous review about the fact that one of the reasons for the fall in the yield of 10-year US Treasury bonds, and with it the strengthening of the yen against the dollar, may be the return of Japanese buyers to the market. They were actively getting rid of American bonds at the end of the financial year, but they began to replenish their investment portfolios with them now.
The majority of analysts (70%) voted seven days ago for the fact that the growth of the Japanese currency and the decline of the USD/JPY pair will continue, and this forecast turned out to be absolutely correct. The level 107.50 was indicated as a support, which became the local bottom of the week. This was followed by a correction and a finish at 107.85;

- cryptocurrencies. While the task of the bulls on Friday, April 16 was to prevent the BTC/USD pair from falling below $60,000, they are struggling seven days later to gain a foothold in the $50,000 area. After the explosive growth to $64,800, which took place on the eve of the American exchange Coinbase' IPO, we are witnessing an equally rapid collapse now. The price of bitcoin was falling to the level of $47,545 on Friday April 23, showing a 26.6% drop.
It is difficult to single out any one reason for what happened. Prominent analyst Willy Woo said the drawdown was triggered by massive power outages in Xinjiang province, one of the largest regions in China where bitcoin mining is concentrated. According to the BTC Cambridge Energy Consumption Index, Xinjiang accounts for about 25% of the coin's total hashrate. Due to the fact that most of the miners were temporarily out of order, the hash rate of the asset began to decline, and the average transaction fee on the bitcoin network exceeded $50, which has not been the case since 2017.
According to Woo, bitcoin should have returned to growth after the electricity supply situation stabilized. Electricity returned to Xinjiang, but bitcoin continued its decline.
We have repeatedly written that the crypto market is heavily influenced by regulatory risks. And in this case, it is possible that panic has been fueled by the rumors that an investigation may begin in the United States regarding a number of financial institutions on suspicion of money laundering using cryptocurrencies. Additional pressure on the market was made by two news stories. The first is the news that the US Congress has approved the creation of a SEC and CFTC working group to develop cryptocurrency regulation. The second is the plans of US President Joe Biden to raise taxes on capital gains, which could limit investment in digital assets.
The total cryptocurrency market capitalization decreased by 17% over the week, from $2.2 trillion to $1.825 trillion. Meanwhile, bitcoin continues to lose ground. If its share in the total capitalization on January 2 was 72.65%, then it is only 50.70% on April 23. This suggests that investors are looking for more profitable assets for their investments among altcoins, of which there are currently more than 8,000. Just look at the Ethereum quotes. Despite the April 18 crash, this leading altcoin managed to renew its all-time high last week, reaching $2,635. Of course, a wave of sales did not pass it, but the fall in the price of ETH over the week was only about 11%. As for the participation of Ethereum in the total capitalization of the crypto market, its share has grown from 10.79% to 14.49% since the year started.
Summing up the past week, we note that the bitcoin price dropped below the 50-day average, which is quite an alarming factor and may provoke further sales. The BTC dominance index, as already mentioned, is also going down. However, it is still far from the lows of early 2018, when it fell to 32%. Another index, Crypto Fear & Greed Index, dropped from 78 to 55 points during the week and approached the neutral zone.


As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the views of a number of experts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

- EUR/USD. As expected, the European Central Bank
maintained an ultra-soft policy and did not make any adjustments at its meeting on April 22. And its head Christine Lagarde made every effort to limit further growth of the euro. Investors should have concluded from her speech that the ECB will begin to roll back fiscal stimulus (QE) later than the US Federal Reserve, since the EU economy lags behind the American one. (According to JPMorgan forecasts, the GDP of the Eurozone, after a 1% decline in the first quarter of 2021, is expected to grow by 6% in the second quarter. In the US, the same figures are +5% and +10%).
The ECB is not interested in a strong euro, as it interferes with European exports, and considers the current EUR/USD quotes to be quite high. However, Ms. Lagarde was unable to reverse the pair's downward trend. Moreover, it is very likely that the US Federal Reserve Head Jerome Powell will say the same thing at its upcoming meeting on Wednesday, April 28 as she did: that, although the pace of the US economic recovery is impressive, this is absolutely not enough to start discussing curtailment of fiscal stimulus programs.
The next meeting of the ECB will be held on June 10, and a lot can happen during this time. The euro will be pushed upwards by the increasing rate of vaccination and the economic recovery of the EU. And the bears are unlikely to be able to turn the pair south until the yield on US Treasuries starts to rise again.
Goldman Sachs analysts believe that the four largest countries in the Eurozone will vaccinate 37% of their population by the end of May, and this figure will already be 54% by the end of June. As a result, the bank raised its forecast for EUR/USD from $1.2100 by the end of the year to $1.2500.
The latest Bloomberg consensus estimate, on the contrary, decreased. If the figure called in January was 1.2500, now it is 1.2200. Although this value suggests further strengthening of the euro.
The main event of the coming week will be the meeting of the Open Market Committee of the US Federal Reserve System and the commentary of its management on the future monetary policy. Jerome Powell, as already mentioned, is likely to adhere to a rhetoric similar to Christine Lagarde, which may put another pressure on the yield of American bonds and the USD rate.
Growth of the euro in the coming week is expected by 60% of experts, supported by graphical analysis, 100% of trend indicators and 85% of oscillators onH4 and D1. The remaining 15% of the oscillators give signals that the pair is overbought. Resistance levels are 1.2125, 1.2185, the target is the February 25 high at 1.2245.
It should be noted that when switching to the forecast for May, the picture changes sharply, and here it is already 70% of experts, supported by graphical analysis on D1, who expect the EUR/USD pair to fall below the 1.2000 horizon. Supports are located at 1.1940, 1.1865 and 1.1800 levels. The target of the bears is the low of the end of March around 1.1700.
As for the events of the coming week, apart from the Fed meeting, one should pay attention to the statistics on consumer markets: the USA - on Monday April 26, Germany - on Thursday April 29 and the Eurozone? - Friday April 30. In addition, GDP indicators for the first quarter will become known: the USA - April 29, as well as Germany and the Eurozone - April 30;

- GBP/USD. A number of experts believe that successful vaccination of the population will help warm up the UK economy. Quarantine restrictions have been severely relaxed in recent weeks, pubs and restaurants have opened. Macro statistics are encouraging. However, Brexit-related concerns, massive trade deficits and UK budget deficits continue to weigh on the pound. But the dollar is also under pressure. Perhaps that is why the forecast for the GBP/USD pair looks rather contradictory: 45% of experts vote for its movement to the north, 35% to the south and the remaining 20% to the east. The technical analysis readings on H4 look contradictory as well.
On D1, thanks to the uptrend that began 13 months ago, most of the oscillators (65%) and trend indicators (85%) look up. Graphical analysis also indicates that the pair will try again to storm the 1.40000 high, but after that it will go down to the support in the 1.3670-1.3700 zone. The nearest resistance level is 1.3920, the nearest support is 1.3800;

- USD/JPY. The key indicator for this pair was and is the yield on US government bonds. If it continues to decline next week, then the pair USD/JPY will go further down. The nearest support is in the 106.80-107.10 zone, the next one is located near the 200-day moving average of 105.80.
The experts' opinion coincides completely with what was expressed a week earlier. 70% of them believe that the pair will continue to fall. The remaining 30% expect the pair to rebound upward (resistance levels 108.35 and 109.00). There is complete discord among the oscillators on H4, on D1 - 75% are colored red, and 25% give signals that the pair is oversold. Graphical analysis on both time frames shows that at first the pair can rise to the resistance of 108.35, and only then, having bounced off this level, it will sharply go down;

- cryptocurrencies. According to a number of experts, the drop in the share of bitcoin in the total capitalization of the crypto market is a very alarming factor for investors. Recall that the dominance index of the leading cryptocurrency was 85% at the beginning of 2017, and it decreased to 45% before the collapse. Now this figure is just over 50%. Pessimists argue that the rise in BTC/USD quotes before the listing of Coinbase on the NASDAQ exchange was the last stage of the bullish rally, and we need to prepare for a new "crypto winter" now, which could stretch for several years. This is confirmed by the massive liquidation of BTC futures.
However, as is usually the case, in addition to pessimists, there are also optimists. For example, analysts at Santiment believe that bitcoin's trend remains bullish. They have reached this conclusion having analyzed the frequency of tweets with the phrase "buy the dip" and "bought the dip". With the bitcoin price dipping below $51,000, the number of low buy posts hit a weekly record of 2,108 tweets. This allowed Santiment analysts to conclude that this correction is nothing more than a "bump in the road."
However, two thousand Twitter users are unlikely to seriously affect the market. Much more important is the mood of institutional investors who are not crypto enthusiasts at all. And there is a high probability that they will not be active until there is clarity on the attitude of the leading regulators to the sector. Those of the "whales" who purchased the cryptocurrency in the fall of 2020 may well start fixing profits at the current level: the price around $45,000-50,000 is more than acceptable for them. But new large purchases look quite risky.


NordFX Analytical Group


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

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Forex and Cryptocurrency Forecast for May 03 - 07, 2021


First, a review of last week?s events:

- EUR/USD. The last week of April was marked by three events?: the Fed meeting, as well as the publication of data on the US and Eurozone GDP.
As for the US Fed, the results of its meeting were predictable. The interest rate was left unchanged at 0.25%. The volume of the quantitative easing program (QE) remained the same, $120 billion monthly. And the head of the regulator Jerome Powell uttered almost word for word what we wrote in the previous forecast: although the pace of the US economic recovery is impressive, this is completely insufficient to talk about curtailing fiscal stimulus programs. So far, everything is rather fragile, the acceleration of inflation, according to Powell, is a temporary factor, and the number of people employed remains 8.5 million lower than in February 2020.
On the other hand, US GDP growth in the first quarter was higher than forecast and amounted to 6.4% (against 4.3% a quarter earlier), showing the best dynamics since 1984. The country's economy needs to add just 1% to reach the pre-crisis high. And, most likely, it will fully recover even before the beginning of July by to this indicator.
Such strong statistics led to an increase in the yield of US Treasuries. But this did not help the dollar much until the end of the week, since European bonds were also growing. Germany's 10-year debt rates have hit their highest since March 2020.
The gap between the US and the EU in terms of the speed of return to pre-crisis indicators may also soon be narrowed. ECB President Christine Lagarde said on April 28 that "a light is already visible at the end of the tunnel as the pace of vaccination in the EU accelerates" and that economic recovery is expected to accelerate in the second half of the year.
As a result of the above, the fight between the bulls and the bears on EUR/USD has been going on with varying success all week. Strong inflationary expectations continue to weigh on the dollar. President Joe Biden continues to flood the economy with colossal amounts of money. Following the $1.9 trillion stimulus already approved by Congress, $2.25 trillion in infrastructure development and $1.8 trillion in social support are awaiting their turn. As a result of such steps by the US administration, the dollar went down and the EUR/USD pair renewed its two-month high on Thursday, April 29, reaching 1.2150.
However, thanks to not the most impressive macro statistics from the EU, the European currency nevertheless lost ground on Friday. An additional impetus to the dollar was given by the auction for the placement of treasury bonds on Friday evening, April 30. The US Treasury Department sold $130.6 billion worth of debt securities there. This withdrawal of liquidity from the financial system provided additional support to the American currency. As a result, the pair completed the five-day period significantly below the start of the week, at the level of 1.2020;

- GBP/USD. When providing last week's forecast for the pair, 45% of experts voted for its move north, 35% to the south and the remaining 20% to the east.
As expected by most of them (45%), the pound was strengthening its positions the first four days, and investors started to hope that the GBP/USD pair would break through the 1.4000 level again and return to steady growth, as it had been since the end of March 2020 until the end of February 2021 However, having reached 1.3975, its movement stalled, the bearish pressure intensified, and it collapsed downward at the very end of the week, as 35% of analysts had expected. Pushed by the results of the auction held by the US Treasury, the pair reached the local bottom at the 1.3800 horizon. This was followed by a couple of small bounces and a finish at 1.3810, which can be considered the Pivot Point of the last 9 weeks. So, those 20% of experts who voted for the sideways trend of the pair were also satisfied;

- USD/JPY. It has already been said that the yield on US government bonds has been the key indicator for this pair. It was growing over the past week. The dollar grew along with it against the yen. As a result, the USD/JPY pair rose above the level of 109.00 and, having added 145 points, completed the trading session at 109.30; 

- cryptocurrencies. When making a forecast seven days ago, we wrote that the main task of the bulls last week would be to keep the BTC/USD pair in the $ 50,000 area. And, they succeeded, though with difficulty. Despite the fact that the quotes fell to $47,000 on April 25, they managed to rise again to the $50,000-55,000 zone. Investors and speculators began to actively acquire coins at the bottom, counting on further profits. And if the total capitalization of the crypto market was at the level of $1.750 trillion on April 26, it had already reached $2.110 trillion on the last day of the month.
Although not much, the news background helped the bulls. So, the news portal Coin Desk reported that the American financial giant JPMorgan had finally decided to launch a fund focused on BTC. Reporters found out that this bitcoin fund will start operating this summer.
The launch of Bitcoin-ETF could serve as another support factor.  However, the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) postponed its decision on the VanEck application until June. At the moment, a total of 10 applications for launching ETFs have been submitted, and the regulator decided that it needs more time to study them.
So, the main cryptocurrency stayed in the area around $50,000. But it was never able to rise above the 50-day moving average, which has served as sustained support for the BTC/USD pair since October 2020. As the quotes approach this line, which has now become resistance, the activity of buyers begins to fall sharply. And this is a rather alarming sign for investors: the market is in thought, which is confirmed by the Crypto Fear & Greed Index located in the heart of the neutral zone: at the level of 51 points.
We have repeatedly said that in such a situation of uncertainty with the reference cryptocurrency, many investors are turning their attention to altcoins. Bitcoin continues to lose ground. If its share in the total capitalization was 72.65% on January 2, and 50.70% on April 23, then it fell even lower by the end of the month, reaching the level lowest since July 2018: 47.87%.
On the other hand, the attractiveness of Ethereum is constantly growing. CoinMetrics calculates that the hashrate in the Ethereum network has grown by 89% over the past 100 days. And the ETH/USD pair, unlike Bitcoin, continues to update historical highs over and over again, rising to a height of $2,790 on April 29.


As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the views of a number of experts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

- EUR/USD. The weakening of the dollar, which has become almost the main safe haven asset during the pandemic, is facilitated by the growth of inflation expectations, which exceeded 2.4% and reached a high since 2013. The huge financial injections should lead to a record growth in US GDP, which, accordingly, entails an increase in risk sentiment and investors' attraction to the stock market. According to Dow Jones Market Data, the S&P500 rose 11% during Joe Biden's first 100 days as President of the United States. This was the best result since President Franklin Roosevelt in 1933, and on average, since 1929, stock indices grew by 3.2% annually.
On the other hand, being the most powerful in the world, the US economy will pull up with it the economies of other countries, leveling the gap in the speed of their recovery. The dollar should also be helped by an increase in yields on US Treasury bonds.
So far, giving a forecast for the coming week, 60% of experts expect that the EUR/USD pair will try to go up again. The nearest resistance is 1.2055 and 1.2100, the target is to reach the April 29 high of 1.2150. 70% of oscillators and 75% of trend indicators on D1 agree with this forecast. The remaining 30% of the oscillators are colored neutral grey.
When moving from a weekly to a monthly forecast, the opinion of experts changes radically. Here, 75% of them are waiting for the dollar to strengthen and the pair to drop to the 1.1900 zone, and then another 100 points lower. The target of the bears is to update the March 31 low of 1.1704.
Graphical analysis on D1 indicates the movement of the pair in the trading range of 1.1945-1.2150. At the same time, according to its readings on H4, the pair first faces a decline to the lower border of this channel, and then a rebound upward.
As for the events of the coming week, one should note the publication of ISM business activity data in manufacturing (May 3) and private (May 5) sectors of the United States. We are also waiting for US employment data: the ADP report will be released on Wednesday May 5, and the number of new jobs created outside the agricultural sector (NFP) will be known on Friday May 7.
The European consumer market is likely to delight investors on May 3 and 6. The fall in retail sales in Germany is forecast to narrow from -9.0% to -3.15%. Retail sales in the Eurozone as a whole may, according to forecasts, grow from -2.9% to + 9.4%;

- GBP/USD. The main event for the British currency will be the meeting of the Bank of England on Thursday, May 6, which will be devoted to monetary policy. The interest rate is most likely to remain unchanged at 0.1%. As for QE, the volume of purchases of government bonds may be reduced from ?895 to 875 billion. If this happens, the market will receive a signal about the intention of the British regulator to start tightening its policy.
The bank may also revise its forecasts regarding the speed of economic recovery in the country. There are many reasons for this. Thus, unemployment in Great Britain decreased by 0.1% in the first quarter, from 5.0% to 4.9%. Almost 30 million people have already been vaccinated in the country, of whom more than 2.5 million received two doses of vaccines against COVID-19. Some of the quarantine restrictions have been removed. And all these are positive factors for the pound, which may push the GBP/USD pair up again. This is confirmed by the forecasts of graphical analysis on H4 and D1.
As for the readings of technical indicators, they look rather indistinct on D1 due to the sideways movement of recent weeks. On H4, naturally, most are painted red, although 25% of oscillators signal the pair is oversold. 
As for the experts, 60% expect the pair to grow at least to the level of 1.4000. In case it manages to break through it, the next target is 1.4240. The nearest resistance levels are 1.3860, 1.3925 and 1.3975.
The remaining 40% of analysts side with the bears. The main support is in the zone 1.3670-1.3700, then - 1.3600;

- USD/JPY. The experts' opinion coincides completely with what was expressed a week earlier. 70% of them believe that the pair will go south again, below the horizon at 109.00. The next supports are 108.40 and 107.45. The remaining 30% of analysts expect the pair to continue to rise. Resistance is at 110.00, the target is to rise another 100 pips to 111.00.
As for the indicators, 75% of oscillators and 100% of trend indicators on H4, and, respectively, 70% and 95% on D1 are coloured green. The remaining oscillators signal that the pair is overbought. Graphical analysis on both time frames indicates a fall of the pair to the level of 107.45;

- cryptocurrencies. So, as it was said in the first part of the review, the BTC/USD pair did not manage to break above the 50-day moving average on the last day of April. And this looks like a wake-up call for investors. Especially because the fall below this line happened for the first time since the beginning of October last year, when the pair just broke the $10,000 level.
The Bitcoin Dominance Index also fell below 50%, which, attracting institutions, dragged the entire crypto market up with it like a locomotive.
Taken together, both of these factors, according to a number of analysts, strongly resemble the situation in January 2018, which marked the beginning of a protracted crypto winter.
But, along with pessimists, the voices of optimists are usually heard. Thus, the creator of the stock-to-flow model, a popular cryptocurrency analyst known as PlanB, believes that the current decline in bitcoin is quite normal and expected, and only confirms the bullish trend. The analyst stressed that one should not expect constant growth, sometimes pullbacks should also occur: ?Nothing grows without pullbacks. Bitcoin has already been growing for 6 months in a row. This is similar to the mid-cycle correction we saw in 2013 and 2017.?
PlanB noted that he even ?calmed down to some extent?: the market was too overheated, and now a small ?cooling? phase awaits it. In addition, the rate of the first cryptocurrency turned out to be lower currently than the expectations of the S2F model, which means it may well continue to grow.
Dan Morehead, CEO of venture capital firm Pantera Capital, is also positive. According to the businessman, BTC is doomed to further growth, as more and more investors begin to understand that storing capital in cryptocurrency is much more efficient than in traditional instruments.
According to the calculations by the head of Pantera Capital, the value of BTC adds $200 every time 1 million new users register on its network. If such dynamics persist, the price of cryptocurrency in 2022 will approach or even exceed the $200,000 mark.
According to Dan Morehead, the spread of bitcoin is a result of, among other things, the growth in the number of smartphone users. There are now about 3.5 billion people in the world who own such devices, making bitcoin available anywhere and at any time.


NordFX Analytical Group


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market