Daily Market Analysis from NordFX

EUR/USD: The US is Not Very Good, Europe is Not Very Bad


On Friday, June 5, the Dollar Index (DXY) hit a three-week low, while the euro showed its largest weekly gain against the dollar in a year. This was due to the US not performing as well as expected and Europe not faring as poorly.

Disappointing private sector employment statistics from ADP (150K versus the forecasted 163K and previous 157K) and an increase in repeated jobless claims (238K versus 234K) for the ninth consecutive week indicate a cooling labour market. The slowdown in business activity in the service sector, the fastest in four years, and the drop in the ISM Index from 53.8 to 48.8 points, below the threshold of 50.00, suggest that the US economy is not as smooth as the Federal Reserve (Fed) would like.

The FOMC's June meeting minutes mentioned that monetary policy should be ready to respond to economic issues, a sentiment echoed by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell. Consequently, this gloomy macroeconomic data increased the likelihood of a monetary expansion cycle and interest rate cuts in September from 63% to 73%. Derivatives are almost certain that there will be two 25 basis point (bp) cuts in 2024, lowering the rate from 5.50% to 5.00%. This caused US Treasury yields and the DXY to drop, while stock indices and EUR/USD rose. The S&P500 set its 33rd record this year, and EUR/USD reached a high of 1.0842 on July 5.

The euro was also bolstered by the situation in France. The left-wing "New People's Front" (NFP) and the government bloc "Together for the Republic" (Ensemble) joined forces to prevent the right-wing from gaining power, which might end successfully. If the right-wing "National Rally" (RN) does not gain an absolute majority in the new parliament after the second round of elections, there will be no confrontation with the EU or Frexit (analogy with British Brexit).

Polls indicate the right-wing will secure 190 to 250 out of 577 seats, while 289 are needed for an absolute majority. The second round of elections will be held on Sunday, July 7, which might cause gaps in euro pairs on Monday.

Last week, the euro was also supported by the European Central Bank, or rather, by the minutes of its June Governing Council meeting. On one hand, 25 out of 26 Council members voted for a 25 basis point rate cut. However, this decision was made with several caveats concerning still high wage growth rates and the persistence of inflation, which resists and does not want to drop to the target level of 2.0%.

Preliminary June data showed that the CPI decreased only by 0.1% from 2.6% to 2.5%, and the Core CPI remained at 2.9% (y/y), above the consensus forecast of 2.8%. ECB officials fear the CPI might rise due to geopolitical tensions, supply chain disruptions, raw material and energy price increases, and other factors. This almost rules out a rate cut at the ECB Governing Council meeting on July 18 and suggests only one act of monetary expansion in the second half of 2024.

Key US labour market data released at the end of the week on Friday, July 5, could change the dollar's position and the EUR/USD dynamics. According to the Bureau of Labour Statistics (BLS), non-farm payrolls (NFP) increased by 206K in June, lower than May's 218K but above the forecast of 190K. Other data showed the unemployment rate rose from 4.0% to 4.1%, and wage inflation dropped from 4.1% to 3.9% (y/y).

After the publication of this data, EUR/USD ended the week at 1.0839. However, this does not mean it will start the next week at this level. Traders are closely watching the French elections and the political situation related to the November US presidential elections. Biden's interview with ABC News at 00:00 GMT on Saturday, July 6, when markets are closed, could also impact dollar pairs.

As of the evening of July 5, analysts' forecasts for the near future are as follows: 55% predict the pair will rise, 45% foresee a fall. In technical analysis, all trend indicators and oscillators on D1 are in favour of the euro, although a quarter indicate the pair is overbought. The nearest support is in the 10790-10805 zone, followed by 1.0725, 1.0665-1.0680, 1.0600-1.0620, 1.0565, 1.0495-1.0515, 1.0450, and 1.0370. Resistance zones are at 1.0890-1.0915, 1.0945, 1.0980-1.1010, 1.1050, and 1.1100-1.1140.

Notable events in the upcoming week include Jerome Powell's testimony in the US Congress on July 9 and 10, updated CPI data for Germany and the US on Thursday, July 11, and US initial jobless claims. The week will end with Germany's retail sales data and the US Producer Price Index (PPI) and the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index.

GBP/USD: The Pound Gained with the Labour Party

The pound sterling and British stocks rose after the opposition centre-left Labour Party secured a convincing victory in the parliamentary elections. The British currency achieved a weekly gain of 1% ? the best in the last seven weeks.

According to Reuters, the Labour Party won 337 out of 650 seats, indicating a majority in the House of Commons. UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak conceded defeat and congratulated his opponents on their victory. In turn, Labour Party leader and Prime Minister-elect Keir Starmer declared that from today "we are embarking on a mission of national renewal and starting to rebuild our country." Starmer will replace Sunak as Prime Minister, ending 14 years of Conservative rule.

The markets responded positively to the national election results. The pound became the only component of the DXY to strengthen (by 0.2%) this year. "Apart from the weakening of the dollar," commented Singapore's DBS Bank, "the markets warmly welcomed the victory of the opposition Labour Party. This will put an end to years of political and economic uncertainty under Conservative leadership following the Brexit referendum in 2016. Labour leader Keir Starmer, while he is alive, has ruled out the possibility of the UK joining three blocs ? the EU, the single market, and the customs union. [?] However, Labour may seek more favourable trade agreements by aligning with EU rules in specific sectors such as agriculture, food, and chemicals."

"As for monetary policy," continued DBS strategists, "the OIS market assesses a 62.4% probability of the Bank of England (BoE) cutting the rate by 25 basis points to 5.0% at the meeting on August 1." However, DBS believes this will not significantly harm the pound, provided that expectations for a Fed rate cut in September increase.

The final note of the five-day period saw the GBP/USD pair at 1.2814. Specialists from another Singaporean bank, UOB, believe the likelihood of the pound strengthening has increased. They note that a strong resistance level is in the area of last month's high of 1.2860. The median forecast for the near term is as follows: 35% of analysts expect further pound strengthening and pair growth, 50% foresee a decline, and the remaining 15% are neutral. As for technical analysis on D1, 100% of trend indicators are green. Among the oscillators, 90% are green, a third of which are in the overbought zone, and the remaining 10% are neutral grey. In case of further decline, the pair will find support levels and zones at 1.2735-1.2750, 1.2680, 1.2655, 1.2610-1.2625, 1.2540, 1.2445-1.2465, 1.2405, and 1.2300-1.2330. In case of growth, the pair will meet resistance at levels 1.2850-1.2860, followed by 1.2895, 1.2965-1.2995, 1.3040, and 1.3130-1.3140.

Among the events of the coming week, the publication of UK GDP data for May on Thursday, July 11, stands out. The next important event, as previously mentioned, will be the publication of a fresh inflation report in the United Kingdom on July 17.

USD/JPY: Back to 1986

The yen lost over 12% against the dollar this year due to the large interest rate differential between Japan and the US. It continued to lose ground in the first half of the past week, reaching a new 38-year high of 161.94 on Wednesday, July 3, but failed to break above 162.00 due to disappointing US statistics.

Until Friday, Japanese officials largely refrained from discussing possible interventions. According to several experts, they may fear the wrath of the United States following sharp remarks from American authorities regarding recent similar actions. However, on July 5, Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki once again stated that the authorities would closely monitor the state of the stock and currency markets. A week earlier, he expressed that he was "deeply concerned about excessive and unilateral movements in the forex market" and hoped that "confidence in the Japanese currency remains."

OCBC Bank economists noted that "USD/JPY will follow US Treasury yields and the dollar. A reversal in USD and a Fed rate cut or a BoJ signal to normalize (rate hike or accelerated balance sheet reduction) is needed for a downward reversal, none of which seem to be happening." OCBC concluded that the path of least resistance for USD/JPY might still be upward unless there is intervention. "Intervention, at best, is a tool to slow the yen's depreciation, not to reverse the trend," they added.

The week ended with USD/JPY at 160.78. UOB Group analysts noted that the pair's upward momentum is starting to weaken, but only a break below 160.45 would indicate that the USD will not strengthen further. If the pair breaks above 162.00, the next level to watch is 163.00. OCBC economists see further targets for USD/JPY at 164.00 and 164.90, with support at 160.20, 158.10 (21 DMA), and 156.90 (50 DMA).

Many traders remain cautious, fearing another intervention by Japanese authorities. 65% of analysts expect another intervention and a southward movement of the pair, while the remaining 35% point north. Among trend indicators on D1, only 10% point south, with the rest looking north. Oscillator indicators are 25% red and 75% green.

No significant macroeconomic data is expected for Japan in the upcoming week.

CRYPTOCURRENCIES: Back to February 26

The last five days of June gave investors hope that the black streak was over. But alas! On the first day of July, the bulls' strength waned, and BTC/USD turned south again, easily breaking support around $60,000 and plummeting to a local bottom at $53,543, a level last seen on February 26.

A long time ago, in 1961, the 35th President of the United States, John Fitzgerald Kennedy, uttered a phrase that became famous: "Victory has a thousand fathers, but defeat is an orphan." So, the current victory of the bears over the bulls also has many "fathers," although not a thousand. Several factors influenced the decline of the crypto market.

Firstly, investor disappointment that bitcoin failed to reach a new all-time high (ATH) after the April halving. Due to the halving of their reward, BTC miners were forced to sell a significant amount of their coins to cover operational costs. It was reported that their reserves reached a 14-year low. Downward pressure was also exerted by the German government, which began selling a large amount of bitcoin (about 50,000 BTC) seized by the police from a pirate site in January.

Sales intensified sharply after the announcement on June 24 that creditor payments from the bankrupt crypto exchange Mount Gox (Mt.Gox) would start in early July. These assets had been blocked, and now 20,000 former clients are to receive a total of 162,100 BTC (about $9 billion). According to a K33 study, the anticipation of this event put significant pressure on digital asset prices. Traders assumed that most recipients would be inclined to sell their tokens, given that BTC's price had risen exponentially since 1994. Real panic ensued when test transactions were observed on wallets associated with Mt.Gox.

According to Quinn Thompson, CEO of the crypto hedge fund Lekker Capital, the market has largely accounted for the German government's actions and Mt.Gox creditor payments. Thus, this negative pressure is expected to gradually weaken, as noted by Fundstrat analyst Tom Lee.

Another disappointment was the anticipated launch of Ethereum exchange spot ETFs last week, which did not materialise. The US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) rejected the applicants' S-1 form submissions, requesting additional adjustments by July 8. Therefore, approval may occur closer to mid-month or later, if at all. As a result, investors withdrew a record $119 million over the past two weeks, the highest since August 2022, making Ethereum an outsider in the crypto market.

Overall, global cryptocurrency exchange-traded funds recorded a third consecutive week of outflows, losing a total of $1.2 billion in investments. Most of the losses came from US spot Bitcoin ETFs, with about half of the inflows coming from retail investors, who typically lack long-term planning and patience. Many whales also began to take profits due to the absence of positive signals. The stock market also played against digital assets. In the last two months, both the S&P500 and Nasdaq Composite consistently hit record highs, prompting some investors to shift their funds from cryptocurrencies to stocks.

Despite the current gloomy outlook, many experts remain cautiously optimistic about the future. MN Trading founder Micha?l van de Poppe believes an upward reversal will occur with the upcoming listing of Ethereum ETFs. Another expert, Ali Martinez, noted that in previous years, when June ended in a downtrend, there was a sharp rise the following month: historically, bitcoin gained an average of 7.42%. However, he believes July may be more challenging than usual due to the shock from Germany's bitcoin sales and Mt.Gox creditor payments.

Santiment analysts observed that both bullish and bearish sentiments in X, Reddit, Telegram, 4Chan, and BitcoinTalk networks are waning, indicating traders' loss of interest in trading. "We interpret this as fear and apathy among the crowd ? a potential bottom signal," Santiment noted. "At the same time, there is increased talk about holding cryptocurrencies, which could be a positive sign."

"Bears still control the situation, but bitcoin is heavily oversold," said analyst Willy Woo. He believes markets will correct the oversold condition, but at this stage, it does not indicate fundamental demand growth or guarantee a sustained bullish trend. Woo emphasized that a breakout of the resistance line on the daily bitcoin RSI chart will create a "technical but not fundamental recovery."

According to Blockware Intelligence experts, bitcoin needs to overcome the $65,000 level to develop a rebound. This level corresponds to the acquisition cost for short-term investors. Currently, the digital gold prices have dropped below the total cost of short-term holders for the first time since August 2023. "Last summer, under similar circumstances, the price remained in a sideways trend for another two months before breaking out again," added Blockware Intelligence specialists.

Pratik Kala, a DigitalX analyst, predicts consolidation and low volatility for the crypto market in July. He stated, "Bitcoin is looking for the next major catalyst to move up. It's not visible on the horizon yet, but things will change as the US elections approach." Quinn Thompson from Lekker Capital also believes that the current "overly bearish" sentiments will gradually shift. He sees the US presidential elections as a growth catalyst for the crypto market, along with increased liquidity from the Fed and the launch of spot ETH ETFs. Another reason for growth could be the increased profitability of mining. Thompson predicts bitcoin will reach $100,000 and Ethereum $7,000 by November.

Galaxy Digital founder Mike Novogratz shares Thompson's view, recently forecasting bitcoin will hit $100,000 by the end of 2024. Tom Lee of Fundstrat expects an even higher figure of $150,000.

As of writing this outlook on the evening of Friday, July 5, BTC/USD is trading at $56,400 and ETH/USD at $2,975. The total crypto market capitalization is $2.06 trillion ($2.24 trillion a week ago). The market lost about $625 billion over the last 30 days. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index dropped from 47 to 29 points in 7 days, moving from the Neutral zone to the Fear zone.


NordFX Analytical Group
 

Notice: These materials are not investment recommendations or guidelines for working in financial markets and are intended for informational purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of deposited funds.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market

https://nordfx.com/

EUR/USD: FOMC - Are Surprises Expected on 31 July?

This review will begin somewhat unusually, not from the start, but from the end of the past work week. On the evening of 18 July and the morning of the 19th, system administrators and users encountered non-functional servers and PCs running Windows. These systems began displaying the "blue screen of death" (BSOD) and entered an endless reboot loop. This global Microsoft outage affected many countries, including the USA, the UK, Spain, Germany, Turkey, and Australia. Many users in China also experienced the "blue screens of death." Critical computer systems, including those of emergency services, hospitals, police, airports, railways, broadcasters, internet providers, telecom companies, and other organisations such as banks and exchanges, either ceased functioning or started malfunctioning. Consequently, the situation in financial markets at that moment became almost force majeure.

The cause of the outage was identified as a software update from cybersecurity firm CrowdStrike, which conflicted with a new Windows update released simultaneously. Microsoft stated that they had identified the problem and were taking easing steps. However, the duration of this work remains unclear.

Now let?s move on to the more "traditional" news of the week and discuss the chances of monetary policy easing. On Thursday, 18 July, the European Central Bank (ECB) held a meeting, and the day before, Eurostat published consumer inflation (CPI) data. According to the statistical office's final assessment, annual inflation decreased to 2.5% last month from 2.6%, in line with market expectations. The core indicator, Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, remained at 2.9%. It?s worth noting that it had shown a downward trend for nine months (from August 2023 to April 2024), reaching 2.7%. However, in May, it accelerated to 2.9% and remained at that level in June. Another inflation indicator, the Producer Price Index (PPI), registered at -0.2% month-on-month (forecast -0.1%) and -4.2% year-on-year (forecast -4.1%).

Commenting on these figures, ECB President Christine Lagarde stated that the regulator had made progress on the path to disinflation, as key inflation indicators are "moving in the right direction." However, she indicated that the ECB would not lower rates in July but did not rule out further steps towards monetary policy easing (QE) at the autumn meetings.

Of course, she knew what she was talking about: on the following day, at its meeting, the European Central Bank (ECB) kept the key interest rate unchanged at 4.25%. At the concluding press conference, Madam Lagarde did not say anything new. She pointed out the weakness of the European economy, noting that the risks to economic growth were leaning towards the downside. Regarding persistently high inflation, Ms. Lagarde reiterated that the ECB's decisions remain data-dependent. While she did not signal an imminent easing of monetary policy, she stated that the decision on the rate at the Governing Council meeting on 12 September remains "open."

The risk-averse market atmosphere and Christine Lagarde's dovish and vague comments prevented EUR/USD from continuing its move towards 1.1000, sending it down to the 1.0900 zone. On Friday morning, ECB Governing Council member and President of the Bank of France, Fran?ois Villeroy de Galhau, stated that uncertainty regarding economic growth had increased compared to a few months ago. He added that the market's expectations regarding the ECB's rate forecast were justified. His colleague on the Governing Council, the head of the Central Bank of Lithuania, Gediminas Simkus, also agreed with the market's prediction of two more 25 basis points (bps) rate cuts by the end of 2024.

Such dovish sentiments from European officials could have exerted significant downward pressure on EUR/USD, but similar rhetoric is also coming from their counterparts across the Atlantic. The next FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) meeting of the Federal Reserve is scheduled for Wednesday, 31 July. According to economists at Goldman Sachs, amid a sharp drop in U.S. inflation from 4.3% to 2.6%, the steepest decline since 1984, and a surge in unemployment from 3.6% to 4.1%, the regulator could begin gradually lowering the rate at this meeting. However, most FOMC officials, including Fed Chair Jerome Powell, assert that the time for easing monetary policy has not yet arrived and that it is necessary to wait for new data. They suggest that any changes could be discussed in September.

Currently, the probability of a rate cut for the dollar in September stands at 96%, while for the euro, it is slightly lower at 80% (considering the 25 bps cut that occurred in June).

So, if nothing happens on 31 July, the Fed rate will remain at 5.50%. Since the ECB rate is 4.25%, this gives a certain advantage to the American currency. If risk aversion continues to dominate the market, it will create additional pressure on EUR/USD.

The pair ended the past week at 1.0883. As of the evening of 19 July, the analysts' forecast for the near term is as follows: 55% of their votes are for the pair's rise, and 65% for its fall. In technical analysis, 80% of trend indicators still favour the euro, while 15% have switched to the dollar. Among oscillators, 85% are green, with 15% turning neutral. The nearest support for the pair is at the 1.0865 zone, followed by 1.0790-1.0805, 1.0725, 1.0665-1.0680, 1.0600-1.0620, 1.0565, 1.0495-1.0515, 1.0450, and 1.0370. Resistance zones are located around 1.0890-1.0915, 1.0945, 1.0980-1.1010, 1.1050, and 1.1100-1.1140.

In the upcoming week, data on retail sales volumes in Germany will be released on Monday, 22 July. Wednesday, 24 July, can be called PPI Day, as a stream of preliminary data on business activity in various sectors of the economies of Germany, the Eurozone, and the USA will be released. On Thursday, we will learn about the state of the American economy in Q2, with GDP figures for this period becoming available. Additionally, the traditional number of initial jobless claims in the United States will be published on this day. The last working day of the week is expected to be very volatile, as on Friday, 26 July, the USA will release the Core CPI inflation figures, which are a key reference for the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decisions.

GBP/USD: Bank of England ? Are Surprises Expected on 1 August?


Our previous review of GBP/USD was titled "Pound Wins with Labour," and indeed, it has. Over the past week, the pair reached a high of 1.3043, rising to levels last seen a year ago in July 2023. In our view, this surge was driven more by political speculations surrounding the opposition's rise to power and the change of government in the UK than by economic indicators. What this reshuffle will actually deliver remains to be seen and assessed. For now, it is merely an opportunity to profit from new Prime Minister Keir Starmer's promises of a "national renewal."

The current macroeconomic statistics for the United Kingdom, published over the past week, did not provide much cause for optimism. Inflation data released on Wednesday, 17 July, was slightly higher than expected. The headline CPI came in at 2.0% year-on-year (market expectations were 1.9%), and the core CPI reached 3.5% (forecast was 3.4%). Although these figures are close to forecasts, they show that UK inflation remains stubborn and is resisting the Bank of England's (BoE) efforts.

On Friday, 19 July, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) published retail sales data for the UK, which also turned out to be disappointing. On a monthly basis, sales fell by -1.2% in June, following a rebound of 2.9% in May. Markets had predicted a decline of only -0.4%. The core retail sales indicator, excluding automotive fuel sales, fell by -1.5% month-on-month, compared to the previous jump of 2.9% and a forecast of -0.5%. The annual volume decreased by -0.2% in June, against a May growth of +1.3%, while the core figure declined by 0.8% year-on-year, compared to +1.2% the previous month.

In light of these data, the British currency began to lose ground, and GBP/USD ended the past week at 1.2912. Specialists at Singapore's UOB Bank believe that "the upward momentum has significantly weakened, and the pair's growth has come to an end." In their opinion, "the pound has likely entered a consolidation phase and will trade between 1.2850 and 1.3020 for some time."

Of course, much will depend on what happens at the BoE meeting on 1 August. The last rate change was a year ago, on 3 August 2023, when it was raised by 25 basis points to 5.25%. Now, according to analysts at Commerzbank, "the next Bank of England decision should be very interesting." They write, "We still lean towards the Bank of England soon making its first rate cut. However, whether this happens in August or September, the key point is that with the persistently high levels of core inflation and inflation in the services sector, a significant rate cut is unlikely. Therefore, in the medium term, the pound sterling should continue to receive good support.".

For now, the median forecast of experts for the near term is as follows: only 20% of analysts expect further strengthening of the pound and a rise in the pair, 60% predict a decline, and the remaining 20% have taken a neutral stance. As for the technical analysis on D1, 75% of trend indicators are green, and 25% are red. Among oscillators, 75% are green, 10% are neutral grey, and only 5% are red.

In the event of further declines, the pair will encounter support levels and zones at 1.2850-1.2860, followed by 1.2780-1.2800, 1.2610-1.2625, 1.2540, 1.2445-1.2465, 1.2405, and 1.2300-1.2330. In the case of a rise, resistance levels are expected at 1.2990-1.3005, followed by 1.3040, 1.3100-1.3140, 1.3265-1.3300, 1.3375, 1.3315, 1.3555-1.3640, and 1.3750.

The release of preliminary business activity (PPI) data for the UK economy on Wednesday, 24 July, stands out among the events of the upcoming week. No other significant macroeconomic data releases are expected in the coming days. The next important event, as previously mentioned, will be the Bank of England meeting on Thursday, 1 August.

continued below...

EUR/USD: Europe is Not Doing Very Well, the US is Not Doing Very Badly

The main events in the currency market will unfold in the upcoming week, with meetings scheduled for Wednesday, 31 July, when the Bank of Japan and the Federal Reserve's FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) will convene, followed by the Bank of England's meeting on Thursday, 01 August. Even if interest rates and other monetary policy parameters remain unchanged in all three cases, investors will closely listen to the statements made by regulators at the subsequent press conferences, trying to predict their next steps. Therefore, in anticipation of these events, we have focused more on the cryptocurrency market in this review, while still covering Forex.

In early July, one of our review headlines read: "The US is Not Doing Very Well, Europe is Not Doing Very Badly." This time, we have reversed the positions of the US and Europe, prompted by the macroeconomic statistics released last week.

Vladimir Lenin, the leader of the Communists who led the 1917 revolution in Russia, stated in one of his works that "politics is the concentrated expression of economics." In our view, the reverse is also true: not only does politics depend on economics, but economics also depends on politics. This is exemplified by the scales, with the current monetary policy of the Federal Reserve on one side, and the concerning prospects of Donald Trump?s return to the White House on the other.

The restrictive tariffs that Trump aims to implement in the trade war with Beijing will create new problems for the Chinese economy, which is already struggling. This, in turn, will negatively impact Europe, particularly Germany, which accounts for half of the EU's exports to China. Within just three months, Germany's business activity indicators have shifted from slowing growth to abandoning optimism about economic prospects. The recent Business Activity Index (PPI) values for Germany, released on Wednesday, 24 July, were all in the red zone, falling below both previous figures and forecasts. Both the manufacturing PPI and the composite PPI are below 50 points, indicating regression. These German indices have dragged down overall European metrics, which have also turned worryingly red. While the US economy is merely slowing down slightly, the recovery of the Eurozone risks being reversed.

The preliminary data on business activity in the United States, released on the same day, 24 July, showed that the PPI in the manufacturing sector decreased from 51.6 to 49.5 points, disappointing the market, which had expected a rise to 51.7. However, the same index in the services sector increased to 56.0, surpassing both the previous value of 55.3 and the forecast of 54.4.

The Composite Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) rose to its highest level since April 2022. The real surprise, however, came from the US GDP data released on Thursday, 25 July. According to the Bureau of Economic Analysis' initial estimate, the Gross Domestic Product in Q2 2024 grew by 2.8% on an annualised basis. This followed a 1.4% growth in Q1, exceeded the market expectations of 2.0%, and confirmed the belief that the US economy will not fall into recession. Further details in the report showed that the core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index increased by 2.9% on a quarterly basis, which was lower than the 3.7% growth recorded in the previous quarter, though slightly above the forecast of 2.7%.

The unrest that began on 17 July in the stock market (detailed in the cryptocurrency review) increased demand for the dollar as a safe-haven currency, strengthening it by more than 100 points. However, for the last three days of the trading week, EUR/USD moved within a narrow range of 1.0825-1.0870 in anticipation of next week's events, with the final note sounding at the 1.0855 mark.

As of the evening of 26 July, analysts' forecasts for the near future are as follows: 40% predict a rise in the pair, while 60% expect a decline. In technical analysis, 65% of trend indicators on the D1 chart remain in favour of the euro, while 35% support the dollar. Among oscillators, there is considerable confusion: 25% are in green, 35% are neutral-grey, and 40% are red, with a quarter of them signalling oversold conditions. The nearest support levels for the pair are at 1.0825, followed by 1.0790-1.0805, 1.0725, 1.0665-1.0680, 1.0600-1.0620, 1.0565, 1.0495-1.0515, and 1.0450, 1.0370. Resistance zones are located at 1.0870, 1.0890-1.0910, 1.0945, 1.0980-1.1010, 1.1050, and 1.1100-1.1140.

The upcoming week, as mentioned, promises to be very eventful, interesting, and volatile. On Monday, 29 July, retail sales volumes will be released, followed by preliminary data on GDP and consumer inflation (CPI) in Germany on 30 July. On the same day, GDP data for the Eurozone as a whole will also be published.

The key day will be Wednesday, 31 July. On this day, consumer inflation (CPI) data for the Eurozone will be released, followed by the FOMC meeting of the Federal Reserve. It is expected that the regulator will again leave the key interest rate unchanged at 5.50%. Therefore, market participants will be particularly interested in the FOMC's Economic Projections Summary and the subsequent press conference of the Fed leadership. The following day, Thursday, 01 August, final data on business activity (PPI) in various sectors of the US economy will be published.

Additionally, throughout the week (30, 31 July, 01 and 02 August), there will be a significant influx of labour market statistics from the United States, including key indicators such as the unemployment rate and the number of new non-farm jobs created (NFP).

USD/JPY: "The Most Intriguing Pair in Forex"


While the dollar has recently been strengthening against the euro and the pound, the situation with the Japanese yen has been quite the opposite. This wasn't just a retreat of the US currency, but rather a panicked flight. On Friday, 19 July, strategists from ING, a major Dutch banking group, described the USD/JPY pair as a "bundle of surprises," retreating to the 155/156 range. A week later, they referred to it as "the most intriguing pair in Forex." This time, the minimum was recorded at 151.93, in the key zone of 151.80-152.00, which coincides with the highs of October 2022 and 2023.

The yen began its resurgence like a Phoenix on 11 and 12 July when the Bank of Japan (BoJ), to support the national currency, purchased an estimated ?6.0 trillion. On 17 July, USD/JPY came under pressure again due to another currency intervention. Analysts, examining BoJ's accounts, estimated the size of this intervention at approximately ?3.5 trillion.

Then came a new surge. It is worth noting that on 03 July, USD/JPY reached a high of 161.94, a level not seen in 38 years. Now, in just three weeks, it plummeted by 1,000 (!) points, triggering widespread liquidation of positions across all markets, affecting everything from the yuan to various asset classes, including Japanese stocks, gold, and cryptocurrencies.

On Thursday, 25 July, the yen's exchange rate against the dollar rose to its highest level in over two months. This time, the cause seems to be not the currency interventions of the Japanese central bank but the expectation that the interest rate gap between Japan and the US will narrow on 31 July. Swap markets are currently pricing in a 75% probability of a BoJ rate hike on Wednesday, compared to 44% earlier in the week. Moreover, economists at ING believe the BoJ might raise the rate by an unprecedented 15 basis points (bps) for Japan.

They note that "Tokyo's consumer price data showed that core inflation fell to 2.2% year-on-year in July (from 2.3% in June), but the BoJ's preferred measure, core inflation excluding fresh food, rose to 2.2% in July from 2.1% in June." Based on this, ING suggests a 50% chance that inflationary pressure in the services sector will continue to rise, which could lead the BoJ to increase the rate by 15 bps at the upcoming meeting and simultaneously reduce its bond purchase program.

If something like this occurs, macro strategists at State Street Global Markets believe that the resurgence of the Japanese currency could lead to a significant adjustment in global trading strategies in the foreign exchange market, particularly in carry trades. Carry trades involve borrowing in low-yielding currencies, such as the yen, to invest in higher-yielding currencies.

USD/JPY ended the past trading week at 153.75. According to analysts at State Street Global Markets, "the yen rally may continue ahead of the Bank of Japan meeting next week." As for the median forecast by experts for the near term, it is as follows: 20% expect the pair to move south, further strengthening the yen, 30% predict a rebound north, and the remaining 50% have taken a neutral stance. Among oscillators on the D1 chart, 90% favour the Japanese currency, with 20% indicating the pair is in the oversold zone, and the remaining 10% are neutral. Trend indicators show 85% favouring the strengthening of the yen, while 15% support the dollar. The nearest support level is around 151.80-152.00, followed by 149.20-149.50 and 146.50-147.25. The nearest resistance is located in the 154.70-155.20 range, followed by 157.20-157.40, 158.25, 158.75-159.00, 160.20, 160.85, 161.80-162.00, and 162.50.

Apart from the Bank of Japan meeting on Wednesday, 31 July, no other significant events, including the release of important macroeconomic statistics concerning the state of the Japanese economy, are scheduled for the coming days.

CRYPTOCURRENCIES: Politics Engages with the Digital Market

As early as the mid-19th century, French writer Charles de Montalembert warned, "You may not be interested in politics, but politics is interested in you." This sentiment is vividly illustrated by recent developments in the market for risk assets, including cryptocurrencies.

The past week was disappointing for investors, although the troubles began earlier, on Wednesday, 17 July. On that day, the shares of some of the world's largest semiconductor manufacturers plummeted, causing the stock market to reach its worst condition in several months. This reaction was due to the tensions in US-China trade relations and comments from former (and possibly future) President Donald Trump regarding Taiwan. Shares of several semiconductor companies sharply declined under the weight of geopolitical tension, with some losing over 8% and a giant like Nvidia dropping by 6%. As a result, the S&P 500 Index fell by 1.39%, marking its largest drop since late April, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq fell by 2.77%, its worst performance since the end of 2022.

However, the troubles for the stock market did not end there. Exactly one week later, on Wednesday, 24 July, the US stock market closed with even greater losses. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices dropped by 3.6% and 2.3%, respectively, after Tesla's Q2 results revealed a profit decline of more than 40% compared to the previous year. Tesla's shares fell by more than 12% in just one day. Alongside Tesla, shares of Alphabet, Visa, Microsoft, Nvidia, and other technology companies also declined. The seven largest IT giants lost $770 billion in market capitalization in one day. This turmoil occurred amidst ongoing issues with Microsoft's global Windows system outage, which affected many sectors.

Naturally, such market dynamics impacted the riskiest of assets?cryptocurrencies. It's worth noting that the prices of both bitcoin and ethereum appeared quite strong at the start of the past week. However, they eventually succumbed to the pressure and also declined. In addition to global geopolitical factors, cryptocurrencies had their own specific reasons for this downturn.

The market was shocked when US President Joe Biden announced on Sunday, 22 July, that he would not seek re-election. This decision sparked a debate about how it might impact the digital assets market. Many analysts and influencers argue that only a victory by Donald Trump could provide a strong bullish impulse to the industry. This view is shared by experts at JPMorgan. Analyst Josh Gilbert stated, "The longer we see Trump leading in the election odds, the more valuable crypto assets will become after his victory." He further explained, "It's hard to imagine Kamala Harris or another Democratic candidate overthrowing Trump's lead in the polls just three months before the end of this election race.".

Trump's Republican ally, Senator Cynthia Lummis, suggested backing the dollar with bitcoin to improve the country's financial system. A similar approach was proposed by Markus Thielen, founder of 10x Research. He believes that Trump could announce at the upcoming Bitcoin-2024 conference that he plans to make bitcoin a strategic reserve asset for the US government. Currently, the government holds only 212,800 BTC, worth approximately $15 billion, compared to its gold reserves of around $600 billion. If the government were to double its bitcoin holdings, it would have an impact on the price nearly equivalent to the net inflow effect on spot BTC-ETFs since the beginning of the year.

Bloomberg reports that bitcoin miners and crypto companies, previously hindered from going public in the US, could benefit under a second Donald Trump presidency. The agency cites the opinion of Christian Catalini, founder of the Crypto-economics Lab at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. He believes that "almost everyone in America will benefit if they choose to operate under new rules after they are implemented."

In June, Trump met with miners and expressed his desire for all remaining bitcoin to be "made in the USA." Following Joe Biden's poor performance in debates and an unsuccessful assassination attempt on Trump, the price of bitcoin rose by 10%, while shares of the two largest public miners, Marathon Digital and Riot Platforms, increased by 30%. Cipher Mining's stock prices gained nearly 50%. For the first time since the crypto market crash in 2022, companies in the sector are planning initial public offerings (IPOs). Stablecoin issuer USDC, Circle, filed for an IPO in January with a valuation of $33 billion. Crypto miner Northern Data, which is actively expanding its AI computing division, is considering listing in the US, with a potential valuation of $16 billion. Kraken, the second-largest exchange in the country, is also preparing to go public.

However, all of this is speculative and dependent on future developments. Josh Gilbert, while optimistic about Trump's influence on the cryptocurrency market, cautions that "a lot can happen between now and the election, so nothing is certain." Gary Black, Managing Partner of The Future Fund, echoed this sentiment, warning his 433,000 followers on X that a Trump victory is far from assured. "Those who think Trump/Vance will secure an easy win are getting ahead of themselves," Black wrote.

Arthur Hayes, the former CEO of the crypto exchange BitMEX, also expressed skepticism. He believes that voters who support cryptocurrency may lose influence over politicians once the presidential election is over in November 2024. If a regulatory framework for digital assets is not established before the election, the elected president and their administration may shift their focus to other pressing issues. Geopolitical concerns could overshadow discussions about cryptocurrencies, with the president's attention potentially diverted to international conflicts, particularly involving Iran and Russia. Hayes argues, "The capital needed to support laws promoting cryptocurrency development could be redirected towards addressing more urgent foreign policy issues. Therefore, regulatory clarity should be sought now, before the political landscape changes post-election."

continued below...

July Results: Bitcoin Surpasses Gold in NordFX Trader Rankings

The brokerage company NordFX has released the performance results of its clients' trading activities for July 2024. The evaluation also covered the social trading services, PAMM and CopyTrading, as well as the profits earned by the company's IB partners.

● The highest profit in July was achieved by a trader from East Asia, account No.1609XXX, with a profit of 50,792 USD. This solid result was driven by the strengthening of bitcoin (BTC/USD).
? The second position in the ranking of the most successful traders of the month was secured by a client from South Asia, account No.1749XXX, who earned 45,106 USD from trades involving the 'golden' currency pair XAU/USD.
? The third place on the July podium was taken by a compatriot (account No.1771XXX), who achieved a result of 42,461 USD through operations with both the XAU/USD pair and the relatively exotic GBP/NZD pair.

● The following situation unfolded in NordFX's passive investment services:
? In the PAMM service, we continue to observe the account Zenix 786, which has shown a profit of 106% over 131 days. The account Gold24 also attracted attention, with its name suggesting exclusive trading in the XAU/USD pair. The number '24' in the name might refer to 24-carat purity (pure gold without any additives) or perhaps that trading is conducted 24 hours a day. Both interpretations are possible. Regardless, the manager of this account managed to achieve a profit of over 60% in just 62 days. The results of both accounts are impressive; however, the maximum drawdown, while not dramatic, is also not the smallest ? 36% and 32%, respectively.
? On the CopyTrading showcase, highly attractive signals, at least at first glance, occasionally appear among the startups, showing astronomical returns. Currently, the signal Bro has surged to the forefront, increasing the initial deposit by 554% in just 6 days! However, the maximum drawdown for the same period has already approached 43%. Therefore, while these super-results are impressive, it's important to understand that they are achieved through super-aggressive trading. When subscribing to such signals, one must consider that the risk of losing invested funds is also extremely high.
Among the more stable and calm signals, NordFXSrilanka and Quiet_trade_USD stand out. While their profits are significantly lower than those of Bro, they still far exceed the interest rates on USD bank deposits. For instance, NordFXSrilanka showed a 47% increase over 205 days with a maximum drawdown of less than 10%, and Quiet_trade_USD yielded a profit of 12% since early March with a drawdown of only around 15%. It is worth noting that the longevity (or lifespan) of signals and PAMM accounts, along with maximum drawdown, are crucial indicators confirming that they won't collapse like a house of cards in the face of the first challenging situation in the financial markets.

● Among NordFX's IB partners, the TOP-3 is as follows:
? The first place was taken by a partner from South Asia, account No.1576XXX, who was rewarded with 16,445 USD in July;
? The next position was secured by another partner from South Asia (account No.1618XXX), who received 13,859 USD;
? Finally, rounding out the top three is a third partner from the same region, account No.1229XXX, who received a reward of 6,610 USD.

Notice: These materials are not investment recommendations or guidelines for working in financial markets and are intended for informational purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of deposited funds.

CryptoNews of the Week



? Another bearish bitcoin cycle started on 29 July after the BTC/USD pair reached a high of $70,048. The primary cryptocurrency continues to be pressured by the potential sale of coins returned to creditors of the bankrupt exchange Mt.Gox, as well as those assets confiscated by law enforcement agencies, including the US.
The decline in quotations is occurring amidst investors fleeing risks and a global stock sell-off triggered by concerns about the prospects of the world economy in general and the economies of countries such as Japan and the US. Negative sentiments are further exacerbated by tensions in the Middle East, uncertainty regarding the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, and the policy of the new US president to be elected in November.
On Friday, 02 August, bitcoin spot ETFs experienced the largest outflow of funds in the past three months. The head of cryptocurrency investments at Evergreen Growth, Hayden Hughes, believes that digital assets have become victims of the unwinding of carry trade operations using the Japanese yen after the Bank of Japan raised interest rates. However, the more apparent driver for the sell-off was the publication of extremely disappointing data from the US labour market.
The US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report showed that the number of non-farm payrolls (NFP) increased by only 114K in July, lower than both the June figure of 179K and the forecast of 176K. Additionally, it was revealed that the unemployment rate has been rising for the fourth consecutive month, reaching 4.3%. These data have raised concerns about a possible recession in the US, triggered a fall in Treasury bond yields, panic on Wall Street, and a sell-off of risky assets, including stocks and cryptocurrencies.
On "Black Monday," 05 August, bitcoin temporarily fell to $48,945, and ethereum to $2,109. The drop was the sharpest since the collapse of the FTX exchange in 2022. Long leveraged positions worth almost $1 billion were liquidated. In total, from Sunday evening, the overall market capitalization of the crypto market fell by more than $400 billion.

? At the opening of stock exchanges on Monday, 05 August, MicroStrategy shares, the largest corporate holder of BTC, immediately fell by 22%. (It is worth noting that just last week, MicroStrategy increased its bitcoin reserves to 226,500 BTC, and the company's founder, Michael Saylor, announced that bitcoin quotations would reach $13 million per coin by 2045).
Metaplanet securities, which calls itself the "MicroStrategy of Japan," fell by 18% ? from 820 yen to 670 yen. "Black Monday" also affected the crypto exchange Coinbase, whose shares lost 18.5% in value. Public miners' shares also suffered significant losses: the three largest US companies by market capitalization ? MARA, CleanSpark, and Riot Platforms ? fell by 19.1%, 24.9%, and 16.7%, respectively.

? Disappointing macroeconomic statistics indicate the need for active measures to support US economic growth. According to several analysts, the current situation should push the Federal Reserve to start easing monetary policy and lowering interest rates as early as September. Recent shocks in traditional markets "increase the likelihood that less restrictive monetary policy will come sooner rather than later ? which is good for cryptocurrency," claims Sean Farrell, head of digital asset strategy at Fundstrat Global Advisors.

? According to Jan3 CEO and former Blockstream head Samson Mow, evaluating the situation with bitcoin during periods of market financial turmoil is challenging. However, an analyst under the pseudonym Rekt Capital believes that the first cryptocurrency could see a price surge as early as October. He says the forming chart creates a bullish flag, which inspires optimism. "While bitcoin shows the possibility of a downward deviation in the near future, [however] the first cryptocurrency is slowly approaching its historical breakout point 150-160 days after the halving," notes Rekt Capital. He believes that although a price breakout will occur, it is not worth expecting an update to the historical maximum reached in March in the medium term.
The expert also emphasized that the current position in the crypto market suggests that BTC is unlikely to fall to $42,000, as buyers show strong support for the asset.

? Renowned analyst and trader, head of Factor LLC Peter Brandt noted that as a result of the market collapse, the situation has become similar to that recorded in 2016. Eight years ago, bitcoin fell by 27% after the halving that took place in July, and this year the coin's price dropped by 26%.
After hitting a low of $465 in August 2016, the price of bitcoin rose by 144% by early January 2017. Drawing an analogy between trends, Brandt suggests that an upward trend may soon emerge, and the BTC price could update its all-time high (ATH) in eight weeks (i.e., in early October). If this time digital gold appreciates to the same extent as in 2016, its price will be $119,682.
However, ITC Crypto blockchain project founder Benjamin Cowen holds a different view and believes that the bitcoin exchange rate dynamics will reflect the trend seen in 2019 when the coin appreciated in the first half of the year and depreciated in the second. In this case, the downward trend will continue, and BTC will see new lows.

? Analysts at Bernstein believe that bitcoin's reaction as a risky asset to general macroeconomic and political signals is not surprising. "A similar situation was observed earlier during the sudden collapse in March 2020. However, we remain calm," explained Bernstein. The experts noted that the launch of spot BTC-ETFs helped simplify investments in the first cryptocurrency and prevented its price from falling to $45,000. This time, the crypto industry's response to external factors will also be restrained, and the recovery of stock market indices will allow cryptocurrencies to show a slight but noticeable growth.
The company's analysts also warn that the "Trump factor" will influence the first cryptocurrency's price. "As the gap between Trump and Kamala Harris narrows, bitcoin and altcoins have traded weakly. We expect bitcoin and cryptocurrency markets to remain in a narrow range until the US elections, changing in response to catalysts such as presidential debates and the final election result," said Bernstein experts.

? Back in December 2022, the Reserve Bank of India launched a digital version of the rupee (CBDC), stating that transactions in such currency would be more confidential than in fiat. Initially, only Indian banks could conduct transactions with it through their mobile apps. The implementation process of the national CBDC was quite slow, and by the end of June this year, just over 1 million retail transactions had been recorded. This figure was achieved only after local banks began offering customers bonuses for using the virtual rupee and started paying part of employees' salaries in CBDC.
Most likely due to the low popularity of the novelty, the regulator announced in April 2024 that any financial companies with payment services could participate in the project. It was recently revealed that companies such as AmazonPay, GooglePay, and Walmart-backed PhonePe have expressed their desire to join the testing of the electronic rupee. Besides these US payment giants, Indian fintech companies Cred and Mobikwik plan to join the project.

? QCP Group has proposed a rather unexpected version regarding the cause of the crypto market crash. "The drop in cryptocurrency quotations to more than a five-month low was mainly caused by the sale of ethereum by the Jump Trading team," QCP Group believes. According to their information, Jump Trading unlocked 120,000 wETH tokens on Sunday, 04 August. Most of the coins were sold on 05 August, negatively impacting ethereum and other assets' prices. QCP Group suggests that the market maker either needs liquidity urgently on the traditional market or has decided to exit the market entirely due to reasons related to LUNA tokens.
For reference: On 21 June 2024, the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) launched an investigation into Jump Trading's activities, as the company acquired LUNA tokens at a price 99.9% below market value, and the subsequent sale of the coins caused a collapse in the asset's quotations. On 24 June, Kanav Kariya, president of Jump Crypto, a subsidiary of Jump Trading, resigned.

CryptoNews

? Undoubtedly, the recent arrest of Pavel Durov, the programmer, creator, and owner of the Telegram messenger, has become the event of the past few days. The billionaire was detained on 24 August at Le Bourget Airport in Paris, where he had arrived by private jet from Azerbaijan. At the time, Russian President Vladimir Putin was on an official visit to the Azerbaijani capital, Baku. According to one version, Durov sought to meet with him but was refused.
According to media reports, the detention at Le Bourget is linked to an investigation being conducted in France regarding the Telegram messenger created by Durov. Investigators believe that the lack of moderation and insufficient cooperation by the messenger's administration with the country's authorities have complicated the fight against drug trafficking, money laundering, fraud, paedophilia, and other offences, leading to the commission of a "wide range of crimes" on the platform. In addition to his Russian citizenship, Pavel Durov holds citizenships of Saint Kitts and Nevis, the UAE, and France. As a French citizen, he is obliged to cooperate with the country's authorities.
The incident has sparked a strong reaction worldwide. Some influencers have accused the French authorities of attempting to restrict citizens' rights and freedom of speech, while others have supported their actions. Commentators also note that Durov's arrest could pose a significant problem for Russia, as his Telegram application is one of the primary communication channels for Russian troops in Ukraine. Moreover, the messenger is also actively used by the Russian authorities, including members of the Government and Parliament, and their correspondence may contain highly important and top-secret information.
For reference: Pavel Durov was born in 1984 in Saint Petersburg. Immediately after graduating from university, he created the social network VKontakte, which is currently the largest in Russia. In 2014, it became known that due to pressure from the Russian security services, he was forced to sell VKontakte and leave the country. As the entrepreneur stated, "I'm afraid there is no way back for me, especially after I publicly refused to cooperate with the [Russian] authorities." And now he is facing new problems: this time due to his refusal to cooperate with the French authorities.

? Samson Mow, a bitcoin maximalist and one of the most prominent figures in the crypto industry, has surprised many by drastically lowering his BTC price forecast by tenfold. Just recently, in July, Mow announced that the leading cryptocurrency would reach $1 million within a year. However, in a new comment, he stated that "as long as the bitcoin price remains below $0.1 million, coins are being sold at a discount." This has led the crypto community to believe that he may have lost faith in a strong bull rally. The $0.1 million figure refers to $100,000. In other words, anything below this figure is considered a discounted price, while $100,000 is deemed the fair value according to Mow.
For reference: Samson Mow is a crypto investor, entrepreneur, blogger, and TV host. He was the CEO of the blockchain company Pixelmatic and the Chief Strategy Officer at Blockstream. Currently, he serves as the CEO of JAN3 and CEO of Pixelmatic.

? Inflation is one of the key indicators influencing the monetary policy and the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions in the United States. These, in turn, are among the primary factors determining the attractiveness of cryptocurrencies to investors. A further confirmation of this was provided by the dovish speech given by Jerome Powell, the Chairman of the U.S. Federal Reserve, at the Annual Economic Symposium in Jackson Hole (USA) on the evening of Friday, 23 August. Powell did not rule out the possibility of a gradual reduction in the interest rate for the remainder of the year. The market reacted to this with a drop in the DXY Dollar Index to 100.60 and a surge in the BTC/USD pair by nearly 7%: from $60,800 to $65,000.

? After the surge to $65,000, the rally did not continue. According to analysts at QCP Capital, the hesitation among market participants regarding the future of the leading cryptocurrency acted as a brake, leading traders to quickly lock in profits. In this situation, QCP Capital believes that although the market is showing bullish sentiment, a rapid increase in BTC prices should not be expected for now. For the resumption of significant growth, signals indicating renewed interest in BTC from major institutional investors are necessary.

? Anthony Scaramucci has recently stated in an interview with CNBC that the bullish reversal for bitcoin accelerated this year after the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) approved spot BTC ETFs. According to the expert, this is the most successful launch of exchange-traded funds in history. The SEC's approval of such funds has increased the legitimacy of the crypto asset. The entrepreneur added that BTC ETFs remain a catalyst for the growth of the leading cryptocurrency, as the number of traditional investors in the crypto market has significantly increased. Bitcoin, he said, will continue to be an effective store of value despite the 30% increase in the price of gold over the past two years.
Previously, the head of SkyBridge Capital predicted that digital gold would reach $100,000 by the end of 2024. However, he now warns that achieving this target might be delayed due to regulatory uncertainty and the increasing frequency of crypto fraud. "I might be wrong about the timing, not the actual outcome. I truly believe bitcoin will reach $100,000; it will just take more time," he wrote.
For reference: Anthony Scaramucci is a financier and the founder of SkyBridge Capital. He is also known for his record-short tenure as the White House Communications Director, a position from which he was dismissed by then-President Trump after just 10 days.

? Renowned macroeconomist Henrik Zeberg is convinced that a recession in the United States is inevitable and could occur as early as the fourth quarter of this year. Moreover, he believes it will be the worst recession since the Great Depression of 1929. According to Zeberg, the upcoming bear market will unfold in two stages: a deflationary phase followed by stagflation, with an intermediate rebound as the Federal Reserve intervenes in 2025. This will be followed by what he calls the "blow-off top," where prices soar to unsustainable levels and then plummet rapidly.
Alongside this forecast, Zeberg has revised his target figures for stock indices and bitcoin upwards. According to his BlowOffTop business cycle model, the price of the leading cryptocurrency is expected to rise to $115,000-120,000 by the end of 2024. However, the economist warns that this will be a short-lived surge.

? Robert F. Kennedy Jr. has withdrawn from the U.S. presidential race, announcing his support for Donald Trump. The former presidential candidate admitted that if Trump were to win, he would be willing to lead the CIA. American media outlets are speculating that Kennedy Jr. might join Trump's campaign and possibly even his team. Following this, users on the decentralized prediction platform Polymarket have wagered $87 million, indicating a 51% likelihood that the Republican candidate will become the next President of the United States. The chances for the Democratic candidate, Kamala Harris, have dropped to 48%.
Like Trump, Kennedy Jr. positions himself as a crypto-friendly politician. As for Kamala Harris, she continues to refrain from expressing her views on cryptocurrencies, which could negatively impact her campaign in the future. According to analysts at Coinbase, digital asset holders and cryptocurrency supporters could significantly influence the election outcome.

? On 25 August, Michael van de Poppe, the head and founder of MN Trading, noted that bitcoin has not yet definitively broken out of the "lower range" between $61,000 and $62,000. According to him, this is a crucial level for confirming a rally towards BTC's all-time high. The trader also pointed out that the prevailing bearish sentiment has caused Ethereum to sharply decline against bitcoin, with the ETH/BTC pair reaching new lows. However, van de Poppe believes that sentiment will soon shift, leading to the beginning of an altcoin season.
Earlier, specialists at CryptoQuant also stated that the correction in Ethereum's price is nearing its end. According to their forecasts, the asset is expected to soon experience a price surge.

? At present, the market capitalization of the leading cryptocurrency, bitcoin, is approximately $1.27 trillion, which is about 3.8 times higher than that of the main altcoin, Ethereum, at around $330 billion. Nick Tomaino, CEO of the crypto investment firm 1confirmation, believes that "both assets will continue to grow, but ETH will surpass BTC within the next five years. The reason is simple. Bitcoin has a straightforward narrative (digital gold), which has already attracted institutional investors. Ethereum, on the other hand, has been the most influential blockchain in the industry over the last five years, but it remains not fully understood." This latter factor, according to Tomaino, will be the driving force behind the altcoin's rise.
"Since Ethereum's market capitalization is currently significantly lower than bitcoin's, Wall Street can acquire a larger amount of ETH. They will do so and aggressively promote the asset in the coming years," Tomaino writes. The analyst also believes that the value of Ethereum will be bolstered by the technological advancements of its network and its popularity as the leading smart contract platform.

? According to a survey by Date Psychology, the majority of women (77%) find cryptocurrency enthusiasts to be unattractive. The only group viewed less favourably are those who collect Funko figures (toys dedicated to characters from films, comics, cartoons, etc.). This may be due to the perception that women consider digital assets to be unserious and, as a result, project this view onto men who are involved with them.
The most attractive hobbies among male respondents were reading, learning foreign languages, and playing musical instruments. However, other surveys indicate that women working in the crypto industry often achieve greater success and frequently hold higher positions than their male colleagues.

August 2024 Results: Three NordFX IB Partners Earned Over $77,000 in a Month


The brokerage company NordFX has summarized the trading performance of its clients for August 2024. Additionally, the social trading services, CopyTrading and PAMM, along with the profits earned by the company?s IB partners, were evaluated.

● In August, the top, "golden" spot on the podium was claimed by a client from South Asia, account No. 1782XXX, who earned 142,908 USD from trading gold (XAU/USD).
? The second place was secured by a trader from Western Asia, account No. 1785XXX, who also traded the XAU/USD pair, earning 32,471 USD.
? The TOP-3 is rounded out by a client from East Asia, account No. 1609XXX, with a profit of 24,196 USD. However, unlike the top two leaders, this impressive result was achieved through bitcoin (BTC/USD) trading.

● The situation in NordFX's passive investment services is as follows:
? A month ago, in our CopyTrading review, we mentioned the signal Bro, which, at that time, had increased the initial deposit by a staggering 554% in just 6 days (!). However, we cautioned that such exceptional results could only be achieved through highly aggressive trading, which also meant the risk of losing the entire investment was extremely high. This warning proved to be well-founded, as by 13th August, the deposit losses had reached 100%. Thus, Bro lasted only three weeks before ceasing to exist.
This is precisely why it is essential to consider not only profit but also drawdown. For this reason, we continue to monitor the signals NordFXSrilanka and Quiet_trade_USD. Of course, their profits may not seem as impressive at first glance, but they still far exceed the interest rates on USD bank deposits. Thus, NordFXSrilanka has shown a growth of 48% over 236 days with a maximum drawdown of less than 10%. Quiet_trade_USD has achieved a profit of approximately 15% since the end of February this year, with a moderate drawdown slightly exceeding the same 15%.
? On the PAMM service showcase, a startup Gold24 has already appeared. The name of this account speaks for itself ? trading is conducted exclusively on NordFX's popular XAU/USD pair. The number "24" in the name could signify 24-carat purity (pure gold without any alloys), or perhaps it indicates that trading on the pair is conducted 24 hours a day. We consider both possibilities equally likely. Regardless, in just three months of operation, the manager of this account has achieved a profit of 73% with a maximum drawdown of 31%.
 
● The TOP-3 NordFX IB partners received the following commissions in August:
? The highest commission of 36,691 USD was awarded to a partner from South Asia, account No. 1576XXX.
? The second place goes to another partner from the same region, account No. 1678XXX, who earned 27,244 USD.
? Finally, the TOP-3 is completed by yet another partner from South Asia, whose account No. 1678XXX differs only in the last three digits. His commission amounted to 13,690 USD.
 
Notice: These materials are not investment recommendations or guidelines for working in financial markets and are intended for informational purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of deposited funds.