Daily Market Analysis from NordFX

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Investment income is credited to the Savings Account on a daily basis and can be withdrawn at any time without restrictions.


Notice: These materials are not investment recommendations or guidelines for working in financial markets and are intended for informational purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of deposited funds.


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Forex and Cryptocurrency Forecast for May 10 - 14, 2021


First, a review of last week?s events:

- EUR/USD. There has been a lot of talk for a long time about how quickly and how well the US economy is recovering. But the head of the Fed, Jerome Powell, warned a week ago that everything is still quite fragile, and the acceleration of inflation is a temporary factor. Apparently, he already knew it then, and now everyone else knows it too: not everything is as rosy as it seemed.
The bulk of US macroeconomic indicators released last week are colored red. The ISM business activity index in the manufacturing sector is 60.7 instead of 65.0 as was forecasted. The ADP report on the employment rate in the private sector is 742K instead of the forecasted 800K. The ISM business activity index in the services sector is 62.7 instead of 64.3. And it is a complete disaster with such an important indicator as the number of new jobs created outside the agricultural sector (NFP): 770K was created in March, 978K was expected in April, but only 266K were actually created, that is, 3.7 times less than the forecast.
Of course, investors had plenty of time to cash in on the recovery of the U.S. economy. And now it seems that the time has come to switch to other regions and, first of all, to the European Union. Moreover, vaccination against coronavirus in Europe is becoming more widespread, EU member states are gradually lifting quarantine restrictions, and the economy is gaining momentum. Unlike the US, retail sales in the Eurozone showed convincing growth, rising from minus 1.5% in March to plus 12.0% in April. And this is against the forecast of 9.6%.
The above has put strong pressure on the dollar and contributed to the strengthening of the European currency. As a result, the forecast given by the majority of experts (60%) came true 100%: the EUR/USD pair went up again and renewed the six-week high on the evening of Friday, May 07, reaching the height of 1.2170. This was followed by a slight rebound and a finish at 1.2165; 

- GBP/USD. The forecast has turned out to be absolutely correct in this case as well. This pair has been moving in a side channel 1.3670-1.4000 for 10 weeks. And the majority of experts had voted for the fact that, having rebounced off the central zone of this corridor, the pair would go up and reach its upper border. This is what actually happened. Having started on Monday at 1.3810, the pair reached the height of 1.4000 on Friday, not far from where, at 1.3990, it finished the working week;

- USD/JPY. When making a forecast for the past week, 70% of analysts had pointed to the south. In their opinion, the pair should have dropped below the horizon of 109.00, and the level of 108.40 was called as a support. And that is what happened. True, the bulls made an attempt to repeat the success of a week ago on Monday, but their strength dried up quickly. The pair turned down, reached the local bottom at 108.35 on Friday 07 May, and then put the last chord at 108.60;

- cryptocurrencies. "Bitcoin is disgusting and contrary to the interests of civilization", said Warren Buffett's fellow, 97-year-old billionaire Charles Munger. ?Of course, I hate bitcoin's success. I do not welcome currency, which is created out of thin air and is so useful for kidnappers and extortionists,? Munger emphasized.
The 97-year-old investor is now likely be attributed not only to the ?sharks? of Wall Street, but also to the ?dinosaurs.? Virtual assets go beyond their perception of the world: after all, they are accustomed to dealing with currencies and securities, which have a very real, and not fictitious, basis. Nevertheless, the clink of digital gold is already heard in almost every financial centre on the planet. Financial data provider S&P Dow Jones Indices has even launched indices based on Bitcoin, Ethereum and on the basket with these cryptocurrencies. The S&P Bitcoin Index received the ticker SPBTC, the S&P Ethereum Index - SPETH, and the S&P Crypto Mega Cap Index which tracks the dynamics of these two assets, - SPCMC.
The adoption of cryptocurrencies is growing not only among large institutional investors, but also among the general population. The American financial services giant Mastercard has presented the results of its research conducted in 18 countries in various regions of the world. According to its data, 40% of consumers plan to use crypto assets for their payments next year. Among millennials, the figure is even higher, reaching 67%.
It would seem that all of the above should only benefit digital currencies. But it is not so. Bitcoin is beginning to increasingly correlate with traditional markets. And after bitcoin, altcoins also fall into this bundle. Thus, the crypto market, as well as the stock market, is now heavily dependent on the policies pursued by the White House and the U.S. Federal Reserve. And if fiscal stimulus programs (QE) are cut, the money stream fueling the cryptocurrency market could dry up quickly enough.
Until this happens, the total cryptocurrency market capitalization is showing smooth growth. It grew from $2.110 trillion to $2.375 trillion, that is, by 12.56%, over the past week. At the same time, the capitalization of the altcoin market showed an increase of more than 20%. Bitcoin continues to lose ground. Its Dominance Index was 72.65% on January 2; it reached the level lowest since July 2018, 47.87%, on April 30, but now, over the past seven days, it fell even lower, to 44.24%.
These numbers indicate that the interests of many investors are now focused not on the main cryptocurrency, but on altcoins, which bring significantly higher returns.
The BTC/USD pair made unsuccessful attempts to test $60,000 again over the past week. However, each dash to the north is followed by a rollback to the south. The pair even fell to the level of $52,950 on May 05. But Ethereum, is rewriting one historical maximum after another in the wake of the growing popularity of the DeFi sector, as well as on the eve of the transition to ETH 2.0. Thus, this coin has shown an increase of more than 80% over the past three weeks. And it made its creator, 27-year-old Vitaly Buterin, the youngest billionaire in the world who made his fortune on cryptocurrency. As noted by Forbes, Buterin's fortune has grown by almost 25 times early 2020.
Litecoin keeps pace with Ethereum. We pointed out significant upside potential for this coin back at the beginning of the year. The argument was that, unlike bitcoin, which had already renewed its all-time high, Litecoin was still very far from the $371 high it reached in December 2017. And finally, the LTC/USD pair was again at this top this week, on May 07, showing an increase of 75% just in the last 10 days.


As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the views of a number of experts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

- EUR/USD. So, the market is again dominated by buyers of shares and sellers of the dollar. As we already mentioned, the weakening of the dollar, which has become almost the main safe haven asset during the pandemic, is facilitated by the growth of inflation expectations, which exceeded 2.4% and reached a high since 2013. The huge financial injections should lead to a record growth in US GDP, which, accordingly, entails an increase in risk sentiment and investors' attraction to the stock market. S&P500 and Dow Jones indices broke their own records again. The former reached the level of 4,238, the latter - 34,732 points. The euro grew together with them, reaching the height of 1.2170.
However, too fast growth of stock indices and a weakening dollar may induce the US Federal Reserve officials to curtail fiscal stimulus programs quicker. Thus, according to Robert Kaplan, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, imbalances in financial markets can lead to the fact that it would be better to raise the issues of folding QE sooner rather than later. Otherwise, the U.S. financial system could be under stress. 
As for the opinion of experts for the near future, 60% of them, together with the graphical analysis on D1, expect the correction of the EUR/USD pair to a strong support in the area of 1.2000, and in the event of its breakout, a fall another 100 points lower. The nearest support is 1.2055.
The remaining 40% of analysts, together with the graphical analysis on H4, believe that the pair's uptrend will continue. The nearest target is the February high at 1.2245, the next target is to reach the January 06 high at 1.2350.
The technical analysis readings are as follows: 100% of the trend indicators and 75% of the oscillators on H4 and D1 are colored green at the time of writing this review (Friday night May 07). The remaining 25% of the oscillators give signals that the pair is overbought.
Among the events of the coming week (and there are not so many of them), the publication of data on the US consumer market on Wednesday May 12 and Friday May 14 should be noted.  Data on the consumer market in Germany is also due out on May 12;

- GBP/USD. The forecast for this pair for the coming week is exactly the opposite of the previous one. If the majority of experts voted for the rise of the pair from the central part of the 1.3670-1.4000 channel to its upper border a week ago, now 70% of analysts, along with graphical analysis, predict it will return back to its center at 1.3800. The decision of the Bank of England, which kept interest rates and the volume of the quantitative easing (QE) programme unchanged at its May 06 meeting, should contribute to this.
True, the regulator has reduced the rate of asset buybacks and is optimistic about the rate of economic recovery. But demand for the pound is being held back by the decision to hold interest rates until there are clear signs of a recovery in output and an inflation rate of 2%. The only one who voted to cut QE volumes was the chief economist of the Bank of England, Andrew Haldane. But his vote doesn't mean much as he retires in a month.
Only 30% of experts believe that the GBP/USD pair will be able to break out of the 10-week trading range and rise above the level of 1.4000. In this case, it will rush to the February 24 high of 1.4240, and the resistance levels on its way will be the levels of 1.4085 and 1.4180.
As for technical analysis, its readings are very similar to those for the EUR/USD pair: 100% of the trend indicators and 85% of the oscillators on H4 and D1 point north. The remaining 15% of the oscillators give signals that the pair is overbought.
Looking at the economic calendar for the coming week, I recall the movie "The King's Speech", dedicated to the British monarch George VI. It is just that it will the speech ofthe head of the Bank of England, and it will be a whole series, since Andrew Bailey will give speeches on May 11, 12, and 13. However, investors are unlikely to hear anything from him that could seriously affect their mood. Of greater interest are the UK GDP and consumer market data, which will be published on Wednesday May 12;

- USD/JPY. The indicator readings on both time frames look quite chaotic. Only the trend indicators on H4 clearly point to the south: 85% is colored red here. Graphical analysis depicts a gradual decrease in volatility and consolidation of the pair in the zone 108.35-108.50. But 70% of analysts side with the bears for the third week in a row. Supports are at levels 108.40 and 107.85, the target is 107.45. ?
The remaining 30% side with the bulls, they expect that the pair will try again to rise above the resistance of 109.00 and gain a foothold in the zone 109.00-109.65;

- cryptocurrencies.  As mentioned in the first part of the review, many investors have shifted their attention from the main cryptocurrency to the altcoin market. The BTC/USD pair has not yet managed to break above the 50-day moving average and rise above $60,000. But is this a harbinger of a new crypto winter? 
If BTC collapses following the domino effect, other coins may follow. But so far, hopes for the growth of the main cryptocurrency are quite real. Despite the fact that the index of its dominance has decreased from 72.65% to 44.24% since the beginning of the year, its trading volumes are quite high: about $70 billion. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index, although has reached the level of "greed", 64 points, but is still far from being overbought.
In the medium term, the fact that the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) postpones decisions on Bitcoin-ETFs may play against the main cryptocurrency. But many experts are still optimistic. Thus, renowned crypto trader and strategist Mikael van de Poppe has shared a bold prediction for the future of bitcoin. ?I am quite confident that we are in a bullish cycle and it is really difficult to rely on a bear market, especially given the inflation of the US dollar,? he said.
?Given the fact that institutional money is flowing in, bitcoin is becoming more widespread. This means that there is now a large demand and a relatively small supply, which will lead to an increase in the price, continues Van de Poppe. - Will Bitcoin get to $300,000 or $500,000? I think so. If we carry out simple calculations, the peak of the BTC rate should be $500,000. Given the data on the top of the cycle, it can be assumed that the average rate will be above $250,000. And it can get to $350,000 - $450,000 within a year.? ?But besides, we will have long sideways,? added the specialist cautiously.
Experts at JPMorgan believe that Ethereum may become even more efficient than Bitcoin in the future. They note that this altcoin is more resistant to external factors. Bitcoin, on the other hand, reacts to almost every major fluctuation in the market, which leads to its correction straight away. With a long negative trend, BTC investors begin to withdraw assets quickly.
According to JPMorgan analysts, ?Bitcoin is very narrow in its application, which is evident from a variety of factors. It is most often used as an asset for investment. All new major projects are developed on the basis of Ethereum. It has more liquidity. ETH has recently substantially increased its position in the spot market as well. Another advantage of Ethereum is its rather large and developed ecosystem,? they note.


NordFX Analytical Group


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market

Forex and Cryptocurrency Forecast for May 24 - 28, 2021


First, a review of last week?s events:

- EUR/USD. "Some Committee members would consider it appropriate to start discussing the topic of curtailing monetary stimulus if the US economy is moving quickly towards the targets set by the Fed," the minutes of the meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), which was published on Wednesday, May 19, say. The wording is more than vague. But it was against this background that the bears tried to strengthen the dollar and drop the EUR/USD pair down. As a result, having bounced off the high of the last eight weeks at 1.2245, it dropped by 85 points - to support1.2160.
However, then the markets realized quickly that this phrase, in fact, does not mean anything in reality. And even if the US Federal Reserve starts to discuss in June the possibility of curtailing the QE program and raising interest rates, it is not worth waiting for concrete steps on these issues yet. This "enlightenment" allowed the bulls to return the pair to the 1.2240 high. But they failed to gain a foothold there.
On Friday, May 21, an increase in the yield on 10-year US government bonds from 1.61% to 1.63% and a decline in US stock indices, coupled with weak German business activity, pushed the EUR/USD pair back to support at 1.2160 once again. The last chord of the week sounded not far from there, at the level of 1.2180;

- GBP/USD. The British currency is fluctuating following the risk appetite of investors. And naturally, the dynamics of GBP/USD is influenced by the same factors as the previous pair. At the same time, the pound seeks to renew not only the annual, but also the 36-month high at 1.4241, and has almost reached this target.
Making a forecast for the past week, most experts pointed to the corridor 1.4100-1.4200. And this forecast, with a minimum tolerance, turned out to be almost perfect.
At the beginning of the week, boosted by positive statistics from the UK labor market, the pair climbed from the 1.4075 horizon to 1.4220. Then, after the rebound, trading shifted a few points to the north, to the range of 1.4100-1.4232.
On Friday, during the American session, treasuries growth and impressive data from IHS Markit on the US services sector forced the bulls to retreat again, and the pair ended the five-day period at 1.4153; 

- USD/JPY. Most experts were siding with the bears for four weeks in a row, expecting the pair to drop to support at 109.00 and then at 108.35. And their expectations were justified: breaking through the support at 109.00, the pair went further south. True, it did not reach the second goal, and the local bottom was recorded at 108.56.
The yen was supported by the decline in US bond yields and commodity prices for almost the entire week. Perhaps the pair could go down further, but the rise in oil prices and treasuries yields brought it back to the horizon of 109.00, next to which, at the level of 108.93, it completed the trading session;

- cryptocurrencies. The bullish rally that began in autumn 2020 caused many investors to have a state of euphoria. Having decided that digital assets will grow forever, they forgot that the crypto market is not just volatile, but super-volatile. And that just a small shock is enough to cause its serious fluctuations. And what if there are several such shocks, and they are strong enough? In this case, as with an earthquake, panic immediately arises, and the tsunami wave literally flushes off the market all positions opened using leverage.
The crypto market experienced three such serious earthquakes in the first two decades of May. The first two collapses were associated with Elon Musk.
Tesla first announced the end of the sale of its electric vehicles for bitcoins, explaining this with concern for the environment. ?We are concerned about the use of fossil fuels for mining. The future of our planet depends on the amount of gas emissions into the atmosphere. And we are not going to stay away from solving environmental problems, ?- its press release said.
The second blow to the market was struck by a tweet from Elon Musk that, perhaps, Tesla will still sell the previously acquired bitcoin tokens. Recall that BTC quotes jumped 22% just three months ago on the news that Tesla had invested $1.5 billion in bitcoin. It may get rid of them now.
The third panic hit the crypto market after Chinese financial institutions were banned from providing services related to digital assets. A corresponding statement was issued by three financial regulators overseeing online financial transactions, the payments market and clearing.
Financial institutions in China are now unable to provide services for the storage and management of cryptocurrency, as well as release products related to digital assets. It is also forbidden to use them as a payment instrument. The three regulators said in a joint statement that virtual currencies are "not supported by real value, their prices are easy to manipulate, and trade contracts are not protected by Chinese law".
The head of the US Federal Reserve, Jerome Powell, expressed solidarity with the Chinese authorities, criticizing cryptocurrencies, saying that they pose risks to financial stability, and pointing out that their stricter regulation may be required. In parallel, the US Treasury Department came up with a proposal, according to which information on cryptocurrency transfers worth more than $10,000 should necessarily be reported to the tax service.
As a reminder, bitcoin hit an all-time high at $64,600 on April 14. And now, just five weeks later, on May 19, it fell to $30,225, losing 53%. (For Ethereum, these numbers were, respectively, $4,364, $1,927 and 56%). Then the market seemed to be on the mend, and the BTC/USD pair climbed to $42.285. However, there was another reversal on Friday, May 21, and it dropped to the level of $33,550 by the evening of the same day.
The Crypto Fear & Greed Index fell to a 12-month low on May 20 at just 11 points. By the very end of the working week, May 21, it also grew slightly, up to 19 points, and is now in the "Extreme Fear" zone. According to the index developers, such values indicate that the market is still in a strong panic, and that, possibly, its growth will begin after some time.
It is clear that the panic sell-off has affected not only bitcoin, but the entire crypto market as a whole. If on May 12 its total volume was $ 2.54 trillion, then after only seven days, on May 19, this figure fell to $1.43 trillion. It was at the same level on the evening of Friday 21 May.
Concluding the review of the past week, it will be useful to add a little optimism to this negativity. After all, in addition to those who lost their money, there are those who made big profits on the collapse of prices. According to the itsblockchain portal, one of the whales sold 3,000 BTC on May 9 at an average price of $58,500 and bought 3,521 BTC at an average price of $44,500 from May 15 to May 19. Thus, the profit of this investor was $18.7 million, and at the same time they increased their holdings by 521 BTC. And it is appropriate to remind here that the NordFX brokerage company offers its clients the opportunity to earn not only on the growth, but also on the fall of the market. At the same time, it is enough to have just $150 on the account to open both a long and a short position with a volume of 1 BTC. (Tthis figure is 10 times lower for 1 ETH and equals $15).


As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the views of a number of experts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

- EUR/USD. If in the spring of 2020 the determining factor was the fall of the economy under the blows of coronavirus, a year later everything turned 180 degrees. And now the main driver of the markets has become reflation, that is, the recovery of the economy due to its active stimulation.
The S&P500 and Nasdaq indices update historical highs over and over again. And investors, despite the overheating of the stock market, sell dollars over and over again in order to buy back sinking stocks and other risky assets.
Starting March 30, 2021, the DXY dollar index tends to go down, while the EUR/USD pair goes up.  And although Fed officials say that discussions on the possibility of curtailing QE may begin as early as June, this may strengthen the dollar only in the short term. The weakness of recent macro statistics is unlikely to allow the regulator to deprive the US economy of financial support. And if any concrete steps are taken, it is unlikely to happen until the end of this year.
Of course, no one questions the stable recovery of the US economy. However, this process has recently slowed down noticeably. So, perhaps, it will be Europe that will become an example of recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic. The Eurozone looks much stronger today than it did a few months ago. Accelerating vaccination rates and reducing quarantine measures in many EU countries suggest an imminent recovery of its economy. The European Commission has already raised its GDP growth forecast for 2021 from 3.8% to 4.3%. And now, an attack by the hawks can be expected at the June meeting of the ECB.
The European economy is export oriented. Therefore, the Joe Biden administration can also seriously help it by lowering import tariffs imposed by the previous US President Donald Trump.
All this suggests that the bullish trend for the EUR/USD pair may continue. 70% of experts agree with this forecast, indicating this year's high of 1.2350 as a target. The nearest resistance levels are 1.2245 and 1.2300. In the longer term, we can talk about the growth of the pair to the height of 1.2550.
The remaining 30% of analysts believe that the overbought US stock market should lead to a large-scale correction, as a result of which the pair will break through the support of 1.2160, first drop to the level of 1.2050, and then reach support in the 1.1985-1.2000 zone.
Graphical analysis indicates that the EUR/USD pair will stay in the 1.2160-1.2245 trading range for some time, after which it will go south. There is some confusion among the technical indicators on H4. But their readings are more definite on D1: 85% of oscillators and 90% of trend indicators are colored green.
In terms of macro statistics, Thursday, May 27 seems to be the most interesting. We will find out the volumes of orders for durable goods, as well as data on US GDP on that day;

- GBP/USD. With improved weather conditions, May is likely to have good spending and business performance in the UK. In addition, the country's government is actively lifting the remaining quarantine restrictions, planning to remove all of them on June 21. All this may lead to the fact that the bulls will still achieve their goal, and the GBP/USD pair will renew the 36-month high at 1.4241. 65% of analysts agree with this forecast, supported by 90% of oscillators and 95% of trend indicators on D1, as well as graphical analysis on H4 and D1.
True, graphical analysis predicts a fall for the pound in the first ten days of June. The remaining 35% of the experts are also expecting a correction to the south. Support levels 1.4100, 1.4075 and 1.4000

- USD/JPY. Japan's low CPI (consumer price index), which was released on Thursday May 20, showed that real yields there significantly outperform yields elsewhere. And this is despite the serious weakening of the yen during the first quarter of this year.
The strong pressure on the yen as a safe haven currency is exerted by global reflation, as well as by the growth of yields on long-term government securities of other countries, especially the United States. For comparison, the yield on 10-year Japanese bonds is 0.25%, while the yield on similar US bonds is 1.63%. 
On the other hand, the yen's purchasing power and the resistance of the Japanese economy to rising prices and inflation speaks in favor of the yen. Published data on the PPI showed that the actual yield on Japanese bonds in April was positive, while their US counterparts, thanks to the Fed's printing press, are sinking deeper below zero. 
Like the four previous weeks, the majority of experts (this time they are 75%) believe that the weakening of the yen has gone too far and it should continue to win back the lost positions from the dollar. Although expectations in this case are quite modest: the targets are the levels 108.55, 108.30 and 108.00. And the support at 107.50 is seen as a very distant target. The remaining 25% of experts expect the pair to return to the 110.00 zone. The nearest resistance is 109.35.
The indicators on H4 look rather mixed, there is a slight advantage (60%) for the bears on D1. Graphical analysis on both time frames indicates a sideways movement of the pair in the 108.30-110.00 channel;

- cryptocurrencies. After such a collapse, as one would expect, interested influencers rushed together to calm and convince the crypto community that not everything is so scary, and the best is yet to come.
LMAX institutional platform strategist Joel Kruger considers Elon Musk's statements about high energy consumption of bitcoin as only a catalyst for a long-overdue correction. ?There is too much buzz around Tesla and Elon Musk,? he writes. "The pullback is caused by this to a much lesser extent, and by technical overheating after the parabolic movement of the course to a much greater extent."
Popular cryptocurrency analyst Lark Davis believes that bitcoin traders shouldn't worry about Elon Musk's comments or bitcoin's depreciation. Davis advises taking a look at the 2017 bull rally and seeing that bitcoin can survive multiple declines. He noted that there were 4 different corrections in the range of 30-45% then.
Lark Davis is confident that the current growth is only at an early stage and believes that the rates will soar much higher by the end of this year. ?You should look broader,? he advises. - The current bitcoin situation is not a cause for concern. This is a fairly common situation that happens in the cryptocurrency market. The situation is likely to become mega-bullish again after a few weeks. Everyone will start to say again that BTC is a new concept of money and stuff like that. Now is not the time to panic and sell cryptocurrency, but it is high time to buy it in panic. We have excellent buying opportunities."
Analysts at Glassnode confirm Davis' words. According to them, when many new investors panicked out of their positions during the rollback, long-term investors continued to increase their investments. For example, business analytics company MicroStrategy took advantage of the decline in bitcoin and bought an additional 229 BTC worth $10 million. The acquisition was made at an average price of $43,663. Investor Robert Kiyosaki, the author of the popular book "Rich Dad Poor Dad," is planning to buy on the current fall in bitcoin.
Despite the collapse, Ark Invest fund manager Katie Wood reiterated her outlook for bitcoin. In an interview with Bloomberg, she said that the price of the main cryptocurrency will rise to $500,000 in the future. Katie Wood believes that the fall in the price of BTC was due to too strong emotions, which, as a rule, are not related to fundamental factors. At the same time, she still sees a certain connection with the fact that the most volatile and innovative part of the stock market has undergone a significant correction.
A fly in the ointment is Katie Wood's statement that, despite a fall of more than 50%, the price of bitcoin has not yet bottomed out.
As for the main altcoin, there are enough bullish forecasts here as well. For example, the founder of cryptobank Galaxy Digital Mike Novogratz predicted in an interview with New York Magazine an increase in Ethereum quotes to $5,000. This is facilitated by a combination of three factors: payment apps and stablecoins, decentralized finance, and non-fungible tokens (NFT), he said. ?I'm almost 100% sure that the price will rise - it's just mathematics,? Novogratz explained.
And at the end of the review, our mini heading of crypto life hacks. This time, about how you can make money on the negative statements of eminent newsmakers.
Outraged by the mentioned tweets of Elon Musk, crypto enthusiasts have developed a new Fuck Elon Tweet (FUCKELON) token. According to their statement, the maximum offer will be 1 billion coins. FUCKELON is based on the Binance Smart Chain and has over 9,000 wallets already. And most importantly, the coin has already risen in price by 2000% and is trading at $0.005260 at the time of writing.


NordFX Analytical Group


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market

Forex and Cryptocurrency Forecast for June 07 - 11, 2021


First, a review of last week?s events:

- EUR/USD. When giving their forecast for the previous week, 50% of analysts expected the dollar to strengthen and the EUR/USD pair to fall to the 1.2000 area, 30% voted for the continuation of the sideways trend in the channel, 1.2125-1.2265, and another 20% supported the breakdown of the upper boundary of this channel.
The pair did go up at the beginning of the week, and it almost came close to the upper border of the channel on Tuesday June 01, reaching the height of 1.2255. The bulls got strength by the positive data on the Eurozone consumer market. However, this was not enough to continue the momentum, and the ISM PMI in the US manufacturing sector, which also turned out to be "green", turned the pair down. The dollar strengthened even more on Thursday June 03 after the release of strong statistics on the US labor market. The number of applications for unemployment benefits updated the post-pandemic low for the fifth time in a row, falling to 385 thousand. And the employment rate in the private sector from ADP increased by 978 thousand, which is the highest level in almost a year. As a result, the DXY dollar index jumped 0.66%, adding 60 points and returning to the levels of the middle of last month, while the EUR/USD pair, having broken through the lower border of the channel, dropped to 1.2103.
The market froze in anticipation of data on the number of new jobs created outside the US agricultural sector (NFP), which is traditionally released on the first Friday of the month. But it was this data that disappointed those who were expecting further strengthening of the dollar: the figure was 599K instead of the expected 650K. As a result, the pair returned to the side channel 1.2125-1.2265 almost immediately and completed the five-day period at 1.2165;

-GBP/USD. A manager of the Bank of England, Gertjan Vlieghe, announced on Thursday, May 27 that rates could rise in the first half of 2022. This statement made the bulls hope that the pound will soon renew its 36-month high at 1.4240. But the bears decided that it was too early to rejoice, the first half of 2022 is still very far away, and a lot can happen during this time. And then, strong data on the US labor market came out on June 03, and disappointing data on June 04.
In general, just like EUR/USD, the GBP/USD pair swayed on the waves of multidirectional news and finished within the three-week sideways corridor 1.4075-1.4220, placing the final chord in the 1.4165 zone;

- USD/JPY. We called the technical analysis readings for this pair Greenpeace In the previous forecast - green dominated there so powerfully. 60% of the experts supported the bullish sentiment then and made no mistake. Along with the growth of the DXY dollar index and the yield of US Treasuries, the pair renewed the high of the last two months at 110.20 by Thursday June 03 and climbed to a high of 110.32. But then, due to the NFP data, it came under strong bearish pressure and ended the week trading session at 109.50;

- cryptocurrencies. Bitcoin skyrocketed to its highest point of $64,595 per BTC On April 14.  On that day, June futures showed an even higher price, $66,450. And then came May. Thanks to the efforts of Elon Musk and Chinese regulators, bitcoin has lost half of its value, and spent the last two and a half weeks on consolidation in the area of $36,000-37,000.
Usually, such a consolidation is followed by an impressive leap forward. But in which direction: to the north or to the south? Everything that is happening suggests that it makes no sense to make forecasts based on technical analysis here. Even guessing by stars or coffee grounds can lead to more accurate results. The market is ruled by COVID-19, regulators and influencers.
Modern corporate culture, among other things, involves following environmental trends. This is exactly what one of the main influencers, the aforementioned Elon Musk, does. He, by the way, continues to influence investors with his tweets. So last week, he burst into vague speculations about whether Tesla could permanently abandon bitcoin, and thereby put an end to the hopes of bulls to break through the $40,000 level.
It's complicated with regulators, too. We talked in detail in previous reviews about the position of Beijing, which decisively indicated cryptocurrencies to leave. And Pascal Blanc, a top manager at Amundi, one of the largest asset management companies, supported the move, saying that cryptocurrencies are "farce" and "bubbles" and that governments and regulators will eventually "stop this music."
However, the US Federal Reserve and the ECB do not particularly interfere in the game of the "crypto orchestra", do not impose bans and sanctions on market participants, but are limited to observing what is happening. Their calmness serves as an example for other, less significant regulators, who also believe that the there is no sufficient accumulated experience yet to make sudden movements. For example, Norwegian Finance Minister Jan Thor Sanner said that people should have a choice of whether to invest their funds in bitcoins or other assets. Of course, provided that this process is properly regulated.
Changpeng Zhao, the founder of the Binance exchange, agrees with the Norwegian minister. He thinks it is much more effective to work out a clear regulation of cryptocurrencies, rather than trying to "erase" them. No amount of regulatory action will be able to destroy bitcoin and blockchain, Changpeng Zhao said. "You can't destroy bitcoin anyway, because it's in the heads of 500 million people,".
Indeed, the crypto market has become more global, not only small traders and investors are involved in it now, but the world's largest banks, investment funds and payment systems. And bitcoin itself was created in order to bypass various prohibitions and barriers. So, for example, Chinese traders and miners can transfer their activity to another jurisdiction. And it remains to be seen whether China itself will benefit from this.
In general, we will wait and see. In the meantime, as already mentioned, the main cryptocurrency is consolidating in the $36,000-37,000 zone. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index calmed down as well, rising by only 6 points in a week, from 21 to 27. But the Dominance Index went down smoothly again, dropping from 43.11% to 41.7% of the total crypto market capitalization, which was $1.663 trillion as of the evening of June 04.


As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the views of a number of experts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

- EUR/USD. The EUR/USD pair has been holding in the side channel 1.2125-1.2265 For the third week in a row and attempts to break it to either side do not succeed. Therefore, if we sum up the readings of technical indicators, both trend ones and oscillators, we get a neutral gray color.
As for macroeconomic factors, the data indicate a continuing recovery in the US labor market. And the number of new jobs created outside the agricultural sector of this country (NFP) in May, although less than expected, is still twice higher than in April.
60% of experts believe that strong data on the labor market may persuade the Fed to reduce earlier bond buybacks and curtail QE programs. And this will lead to an increase in the yield of long-term Treasury bonds and strengthen the position of the USD. Warm summer weather, a large number of people vaccinated against COID-19, as well as the lifting of quarantine restrictions are cited as additional arguments.
However, Europe is not standing still either, as the remaining 40% of analysts say, so the strengthening of the dollar - if it happens, of course - may be temporary. According to these experts, the current improvement in the situation on the US labor market fits well into the Fed's plan and is not at all a reason for tightening economic policy and raising interest rates. Without this, investors will start looking for more attractive international assets over time, and the upward trend of the EUR/USD pair will gain new strength.
The nearest target of the bears is the zone 1.1985-1.2000, the support levels on the way to it are 1.2135, 1.2100 and 1.2060. The bulls are still aiming to break the upper border of the 1.2265 channel and the pair to rise to this year's high of 1.2350.
As for the events of the coming week, the following should be noted: the release of data on GDP in the Eurozone on Tuesday June 08, and the decision of the European Central Bank on the interest rate (forecast - unchanged, at 0%) the next day, June 10, as well as the comments of the ECB on monetary policy. Also, the leaders of the G7 countries will meet on Friday 11 June and Saturday 12 June. The event, of course, is important, however, is not worth waiting for an instant reaction to it; 

- GBP/USD. The three-week sideways trend also affected the forecast of experts on the British currency: 35% of them vote for the pair's movement to the north, 35% look to the south, and 30% point to the east. However, when switching from a weekly to a monthly forecast, the number of supporters of the dollar strengthening grows to 55%. 
Graphical analysis draws the following picture until the end of June: first, the pair declines to support 1.4000, then a local low follows in the 1.3900-1.3925 zone and the pair returns to the 1.4200-1.4220 zone. Oscillators give multidirectional signals, while trend indicators are mostly colored green. These are 85% on H4, 95% on D1;

- USD/JPY. Technical indicators give chaotic readings for this pair. Only in trend indicators on D1 do greens still have a clear 75% advantage.
Graphical analysis forecasts are also controversial. It expects first a decline to the level of 109.00, and then a fall to the May lows in the region of 108.35 on H4. On D1, the forecast is the opposite: renewal of the March 31 high, 110.95. Resistances along the way are 109.70, 110.00 and 110.30.
The green summer season continues among analysts. The overwhelming majority (75%) expect the pair to grow, the remaining 25% look down.
Perhaps the yen's positions will be supported by the GDP data for the first quarter of 2021, which will be published by the Japanese Cabinet of Ministers on Tuesday, June 08. According to forecasts, the fall in GDP may slow down from minus 1.3% to minus 1.2%, which will indicate the possibility of the country's economy coming out of the recession;

- cryptocurrencies. Let us start with a pessimistic view of the future. According to Yahoo Finance, the strategist of the JPMorgan financial holding Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou did not rule out a further decrease in the price of the first cryptocurrency. We stated previously, he says, that the failure of bitcoin to break the $60,000 barrier will automatically lead to bearish momentum and further exits. According to the expert, the market crash in May has greatly weakened institutional demand, which is why the price of BTC cannot recover to its former levels. In the medium-term perspective, Panigirtzoglou is confident that the fundamentally justified value of bitcoin is in the range of $24,000- $36,000.
?There is no doubt that the recent boom-and-bust dynamics is a barrier to institutional adoption of cryptocurrencies,? explains the JPMorgan strategist. "The rise in volatility, especially in relation to gold, presents a barrier for large investors, and makes digital gold less attractive than traditional gold."
Unlike Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, TV host and founder of Heisenberg Capital, Max Kaiser, is optimistic and expects the bitcoin price to hit $220,000 in the second half of 2021. "This is an aggressive price target, which is explained by the serious problems of the US dollar," the TV host said.
Kaiser also stressed that the price of bitcoin is not as important as the hash rate and other fundamental metrics of the network. According to him, the price only reflects the state of the dollar: when the dollar weakens, the rate of the first cryptocurrency rises, and vice versa. ?I don't look at the price, I watch the hash rate. And this indicator has been in a very predictable and stable bull market for the last 10 years,? he explains.
The growth of the BTC/USD pair is also predicted by analysts of the American company Fundstrat. They came to this conclusion after studying the patterns on the chart of the first cryptocurrency rate. According to them, despite the fall in May, the bitcoin rate may return to the $50,000 mark in the near future. At the same time, it should be recalled that the co-founder of Fundstrat Tom Lee said earlier that the BTC rate could exceed the level of $100,000 this year, and the ethereum rate - $10,000.
But the cryptanalyst PlanB, known for applying the Stock-to-Flow (S2F) model to bitcoin, turns out to be a fatalist. He informed his 517,300 followers that he considers his BTC investment as a call option. "I will either bring it to zero or to $1 million," - he defined his position, noting that the upside potential of bitcoin exceeds the risks of a move in the opposite direction.
PlanB did not ignore the sale of bitcoins last month. ?So, what happened in May? Weak hands sold about 1 million BTC at $30,000-35,000, which they bought in April at $ 55,000-60,000, and suffered a staggering loss of tens of billions of dollars. Good news: these 1 million bitcoins are now in strong hands,? PlanB summed up their assessment of the situation.


NordFX Analytical Group


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

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Forex and Cryptocurrency Forecast for June 14 - 18, 2021


First, a review of last week?s events:

- EUR/USD. The key day last week was Thursday, June 10. There were two important events on the day: the European Central Bank meeting and the release of US consumer market data. Now let's talk about everything in order.
The ECB raised its forecasts for Eurozone GDP from 4.0% to 4.6% for 2021 and from 4.1% to 4.7% for 2022. Inflation is expected to rise by 1.9% this year and 1.5% next year (the previous forecast was 1.5% and 1.2% respectively). At the same time, the pace of economic recovery has not particularly impressed Ms. Lagarde, especially as it is lagging seriously behind the US. The ECB chief also considers the jump in inflation a temporary phenomenon. While prices may continue to rise in 2021 Q3 and Q4, they should go down as the ?temporary factors disappear.? So, the overall inflation rate in the Eurozone, she believes, will remain below target ?throughout the forecast horizon.?
As a result, the result of the ECB meeting was... no result. Despite the debate, the Bank's Governing Board has not made any decisions regarding the winding down of QE, leaving the current stimulus measures in place. The interest rate on the euro was also unchanged, at 0%. But it was because of such passivity that Ms. Lagarde succeeded in achieving what she wanted: keeping the euro from rising.
And now about the second event on Thursday - the publication of data on the US consumer market (CPI). It was just that, according to the reaction of the market, it resembled the moment when the regulator announced new interest rates. The CPI figures turned out to be much higher than forecasted, showing the fastest rise in consumer prices in the United States in more than 12 years.
Such a rise in inflation could scare investors, however, exactly the opposite happened: the S&P500 index updated another high, reaching 4250 (against 4244 exactly a month ago), and the yield on 10-year Treasuries fell to a 3-month low.
As for the EUR/USD pair, this is where the bears won. Their logic was as follows: the ECB postponed the decision to roll back QE in Europe, but in the US, a jump in inflation could push the Fed to take some real steps in this direction. And some goals are likely to be identified at the next meeting of the regulator next Wednesday, June 16. This expectation of tightening monetary policy has driven the dollar higher. Additional strength for the bears was given by the growth of the Consumer Confidence Index of the University of Michigan in the USA, which was published on June 11. As a result, the dollar won back about 100 points from the euro, and the EUR/USD pair finished just below the lower border of the four-week side channel 1.2125-1.2265, at around 1.2108;

- GBP/USD. The statistics from the USA pushing the pair down was mentioned above. As for the UK's performance, it's not all that simple. Data released on Thursday June 10 supported the pound, showing a sharp rise in the Manufacturing PMI, which indicated a strengthening of industrial production and trade in the UK. However, another package of macro-statistics, published the next day, aroused caution among investors.
The center of the British economic recovery has shifted from manufacturing and the housing market to the service sector. Here, thanks to vaccinations and the easing of quarantine measures, activity has increased and even exceeded forecasts. But the figures were not so rosy in other sectors of the economy.
Construction volumes declined by 2%, while industrial production for April fell 1.3%. When compared to the same period in 2020, it added 27.5% during that time. It would seem that the growth is evident. But, according to a number of experts, there is nothing much to be happy about. If we compare the absolute values, they are 3% lower than the levels of February 2020 and 6.5% below the local peak in March 2019. And this speaks of the stagnation of the sector, which, apparently, was provoked not only by the COVID-19 pandemic, but also by Brexit.
These multidirectional statistics resulted in the GBP/USD pair failing to reach beyond the 1.4075-1.4220 side channel, along which it was drifting for the fourth week, and put the last point at 1.4115;

- USD/JPY. Having started the five-day period at 109.50, the pair completed it at 109.70. At the same time, it was below these levels almost all the time, bouncing over and over again from the support in the area of 109.18-109.30. However, thanks to strong statistics from the US, the pair managed to climb to the height of 109.85 at the end of the week. But even taking into account this spurt, the weekly fluctuation range of 45 points looks more than modest;

- cryptocurrencies. The crypto market is calm. Bitcoin has been consolidating around $36,000-37,000 for the third week in a row. An attempt by the bears on to turn quotes downward June 8 ended in failure: the lowest point they managed to reach was $31.065. Having stayed there for only a few minutes, the BTC/USD pair turned around, climbed to $38.325, and then went back to the consolidation area.
Elon Musk is back in the news of the week, which could somehow influence the market sentiment. The owner of Tesla and SpaceX received a video allegedly from the Anonymous hacker group. It states that his tweets regarding cryptocurrency ruined the lives of ordinary working people, and their dreams were shattered by Musk's public tantrums.
The man in the video, in the group's familiar Guy Fawkes mask, changed his voice and called the billionaire a Bond villain who pretends to be a visionary, but in fact is a narcissistic rich man desperately in need of attention. The video indicates that Musk abandoned bitcoin only because he feared Tesla would lose subsidies from the state. And the hackers called Musk's recent initiative to create a Council of Bitcoin Miners an attempt to take control of the industry.
The video, which has already garnered about 2 million views, ends with a challenge: ?You consider yourself the smartest, but this time you will play against an equal opponent. We are Anonymous! We are legion! Wait for us".
Another newsmaker, analytical software provider MicroStrategy Inc. announced a $400 million convertible bond offering maturing in 2028.  The company will use the funds raised from the placement to buy bitcoins.
According to Bitcoin Treasuries, MicroStrategy currently owns 92,079 BTC worth more than $3.37 billion.. And if you study the history of its crypto assets? replenishment, it becomes obvious that the company is moving towards averaging its position in the market. And this happens due to borrowed funds.
Averaging is considered a rather risky investment method. For those who don't know, we'll explain in a simple example. Averaging is when you buy 3 BTC: the first one for $5,000, then you buy the second one for $20,000, and the third one for $35,000. The average price of 1 coin in this case will be equal to $20,000 ($ 60,000/3). And if quotes fall below this level, you will be at a loss. This is why some experts believe MicroStrategy has embarked on a "journey on thin ice."
At the time of writing the forecast, the BTC/USD pair is in the $37,000 zone. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index, as well as the coin itself, demonstrates "consolidation": it was equal to 21 points on May 28, 27 on June 04, and again 21 points on June 11, which corresponds to the average Fear indicator.
Among the 10,332 existing cryptocurrencies, bitcoin, despite its decline in its share in the total crypto market capitalization, still leads by a huge margin. Its dominance index is 44.03% at the moment. The capitalization of the entire digital currency market fell from $1.663 trillion to $1.585 trillion over the week.


As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the views of a number of experts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

- EUR/USD. As mentioned above, the Governing Council of the ECB has not made any decision regarding the winding down of the quantitative (QE) program. But the Fed can discuss this issue at its meeting on Wednesday, June 16, and, as a result, publish a "road map". If not publish a detailed road map, then at least indicate its certain stages. And if this happens, we can expect a rapid rise in the dollar and a decline in the EUR/USD pair to the level of 1.2000. The next support is 1.1945, then the zone 1.1880-1.1900.
If the Fed gets off with general phrases that the rise in inflation and the current improvement in the US labor market are not at all a reason for tightening economic policy again, then the pair may return to the upper border of the 1.2125-1.2265 channel. The next target for the bulls is the growth of the pair to this year's high of 1.2350.
So, all the market's attention is now focused on this event. And analysts avoid any predictions until it's over. Graphical analysis is in disarray as well. Among the trend indicators, 55% are colored red on D1, and 100% on H4. The picture is slightly different among oscillators. Here, 60% of them are looking down on both time frames, 20% have taken a neutral position, and the remaining 20% are signaling that the pair is oversold.
In addition to the Fed meeting and comments on June 16, other events of the week include the release of statistics on the German consumer market and on retail sales in the United States. Both numbers will be released on Tuesday June 15;

- GBP/USD. The Bank of England now faces a difficult choice of which way to go further: to support economic growth by continuing fiscal stimulus programs, or to start fighting inflation and prices that have already exceeded pre-Covid levels.
If you look at the ECB and the Fed, they have preferred the first option so far, postponing the second one for later. The renewed trend towards the stagnation of the UK manufacturing sector indicates that the Bank of England should follow the example of its colleagues.  Especially since the country's coronavirus curve has moved up sharply again, and there is increasing discussion about moving the full abolition of the quarantine restrictions scheduled for June 21.
If this happens, the pound will be under strong pressure. However, there will be June 16 before June 21, when the Fed meeting will take place - the key event of the week for almost all dollar pairs. As in the case of EUR/USD, expert opinions are now almost impossible to be brought to any common denominator. Graphical analysis also indicates the continuation of the pair's sideways movement in the coming days within the range of 1.4075-1.4220. Oscillators on both timeframes give multidirectional signals, although the red ones have a slight advantage here. The trend indicators on D1 are split evenly: 50% pointing north, 50% pointing south. And it is only among the trend indicators on H4 that there is an overwhelming majority: 85% of them are colored red.
The targets of the bears: 1.4075, 1.4000, then the low in the 1.3900-1.3925 zone. The bulls' targets: 1.4185-1.4225 and 1.4250, having reached which, they will then try to break through the resistance of 1.4300 and refresh the 2018 highs.
Among the important events of the coming week: the release of UK labour market statistics and Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey's speech on Tuesday June 15, as well as data on the country's consumer market on Wednesday June 16;

- USD/JPY. Giving a weekly forecast, the majority of experts (60%) vote for the strengthening of the dollar and the growth of the pair to the zone of 110.00-110.30. Graphical analysis and 65% of oscillators on H4, as well as 100% of trend indicators on H4 and D1 agree with them.

The remaining 40% of analysts, along with graphical analysis on D1, expect the pair to decline to support at 108.00-108.35. The next strong support is at 107.50.
When switching to the monthly forecast, the picture changes in a mirror-like manner: here it is already 60% that side with the bears. 40% remain on the side of the bulls, with only half of them believing that the pair will be able to rise above 111.00 and renew the March 31 high.
As for the events of the next week, one could note the decision of the Bank of Japan on the interest rate and the subsequent press conference. However, the likelihood that the bank's monetary policy will undergo changes that could seriously affect market sentiment is close to zero;

- cryptocurrencies. Goldman Sachs experts have downgraded bitcoin's rating from gold to copper. According to them, it is still difficult to put the main coin on a par with gold, since it does not have such a powerful support as this precious metal. Commodities expert Jeff Curry explained that the volatility of the main coin is very similar in nature to the price swings of copper in the global market.
Previously, a similar point of view was voiced by JPMorgan experts. According to them, the main cryptocurrency is a cyclical commodity, and therefore cannot compete with precious metals or fiat. Investment companies are well aware of this, which is why they have portfolios that only consist of a few percent of bitcoin and other digital assets.
The opposite point of view to bankers was expressed by the CEO of the crypto exchange Gemini and bitcoin billionaire Tyler Winklevoss. He believes that bitcoin is still in its early stages of development. ?Bitcoin is Gold 2.0,? Winklevoss said, ?and its market cap should be over $10 trillion, just like gold. It is currently at the level of $1 trillion, that is, growth may be at least 10 times more. "
In his opinion, even a rate of about $35,000 is an excellent opportunity to enter a long-term investment. With a capitalization of $10 trillion, 1 BTC will be worth $500,000, and this may happen within the current decade, or maybe within the next 5 years.
?We will hodl to at least $500,000, and even then, we will not have to sell the asset, because it can be lent, used as collateral, etc.,? the billionaire added. And then he flew into space in his fantasies, claiming that bitcoin could be used for transactions between planets in the future: ?Bitcoin is a project that continues to evolve and can achieve much more. It could become the global reserve digital currency of the world or even several planets when we get to Mars."
The forecast (or rather, its absence) by another billionaire, the founder of Avenue Capital Management Mark Lasry, seems to be much more mundane. According to him, the cryptocurrency market has already formed, and nothing threatens it, and the rapid growth of bitcoin in 2021 has exceeded his expectations. That being said, ?to be honest, I don't know where bitcoin is heading,? Larsy admitted. "I can justify why it will rise to $100,000, but I can also justify why it will fall to $20,000."
And it is difficult to argue with him about this. At least in the current situation, any movement of digital gold can be justified. Suffice it to recall two authoritative predictions:
: of the American company Fundstrat analysts, according to which, despite the fall in May, the bitcoin rate may return to the $50,000 mark in the near future,
- and of the JPMorgan financial holding strategist Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, who is confident that the fundamentally justified value of bitcoin is in the range of $24,000- $36,000.

***
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NordFX Analytical Group


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market

Forex and Cryptocurrency Forecast for June 28 - July 02, 2021


First, a review of last week?s events:

- EUR/USD. The data on the labor market and the US economy released last week did not have much positive to please. Q1 GDP growth (6.4%) coincided with forecast data, which is no better but also no worse than market expectations. And then there were some disappointments. Initial jobless claims were 411K with a forecast of 380K. The increase in durable goods orders for May was lower than expected at 2.3% instead of 2.7%. And capital goods orders fell into the negative zone, minus 0.1%. And all this is against the back of Markit's business growth in Germany (60.4 in June versus 56.2 in May) and in the Eurozone as a whole (59.2 vs. 57.1).
Despite the slowing American economy, the risk appetite of those willing to invest in it has not subsided, but, on the contrary, even grew. They were backed by President Joe Biden's Senate-approved infrastructure plan. This plan includes the construction of new roads and bridges, ports, investments in water supply, clean energy and broadband internet. The total investment will amount to $1.2 trillion. Such an infusion will create thousands of new jobs and add points to the United States in the economic confrontation with China.
The rise in related investor optimism has already led the Dow Jones to gain more than 1,400 points over the week, the S&P500 and Nasdaq Composite once again updating historic highs, and The VIX Fear and Volatility Index fell to a one-year low.
The outflow of funds to the stock markets weakened the dollar. The DXY dollar index fell from 92.32 to 91.80, while the euro was winning back 110 points from the American currency at the week's high. Starting from 1.1865, the EUR/USD pair reached 1.1975 on Friday June 25, after which the bulls dried up, followed by a fightback and finish at 1.1940;

- GBP/USD. A meeting of the Bank of England took place on Thursday, June 24. As for the specific momentary steps of the regulator, no one expected any surprises from it. It was clear to everyone that the Bank of England would not make drastic moves and would leave the parameters of its monetary policy unchanged. So it happened: the asset buyback program was maintained at ?895bn and the interest rate at 0.1%.
However, investors had hoped that positive UK labor market data would prompt the Bank's management to start discussing moves to wind down programs for quantitative easing (QE) soon. Just as their colleagues from the other side of the Atlantic intend to do.
On these expectations, as most analysts predicted (55 per cent), the GBP/USD pair moved north, reaching the key 1.4000. However, then the degree of optimism went down. The first tub of cold water was poured on Wednesday June 23 following the publication of the June Markit PMI for the UK services sector. It turned out to be lower than in May: 61.7 compared to 62.9. And then a whole chilling waterfall followed: the Bank of England not only did not change the parameters of the quantitative easing (QE) program but did not give a hint that these parameters could be changed in the foreseeable future.
Carried away by a stream of sobering water, the GBP/USD pair groped the local bottom only at 1.3870. And barely pushing off from it, it was able to complete the week 20 points higher, at the level of 1.3885; 

- USD/JPY. When making a forecast for the past week, the majority of experts (65%) voted for further strengthening of the dollar and the growth of the pair above the 111.00 horizon. They were supported by graphical analysis on H4, as well as 85% of oscillators and 95% of trend indicators on D1. And they were all right: despite the fact that the dollar was falling against the euro and the pound in the first half of the five-day period, it was growing against the Japanese yen, reaching the height of 111.10 on June 24. True, the Japanese currency failed to gain a foothold there, and it placed the last chord at 110.75;

- cryptocurrencies. Although these currencies are virtual, the news regarding them is quite real. Let's start with a brief overview.
The developer of the well-known anti-virus of the same name, ?crypto-baron? John McAfee has been found dead in a cell at a prison in Barcelona. The cause of death, Forbes reports citing the Spanish Ministry of Justice, is believed to have been suicide after a Spanish court decided to extradite McAfee to the United States. There, among other things, he was accused of money laundering, tax evasion and orchestrating altcoin fraud. The US DOJ claimed McAfee and his partner earned more than $2 million on cryptocurrencies.
However, this 2 million seems a ridiculous figure compared to the $3.6 billion that Africypt's creators, brothers Raees and Ameer Cajee, from South Africa, stole from investors. And if John McAfee was already 75, then these scammers were barely 17 and 20 years old, respectively.
According to Bloomberg, the Cajee brothers' scam could become the largest in the history of the cryptocurrency market. So far, the top line has been held by Canadian QuadrigACX project creator Gerald Cotten, emptying the pockets of $162 million worth of customers.
These amounts are large, of course. But the main losses for investors do not come from the actions of fraudsters, but because of the regulators. The total crypto market capitalization decreased by almost $400 billion in just 10 days, from June 15 to June 25, - from $1.734 trillion to $1.336 trillion. It even fell to $1.164 trillion at the low, returning to the values of February 2021. In addition, almost $900 million of futures positions were liquidated in just one day, June 23.
Along with the fall of the crypto market, the hash rate of the BTC network also decreased. However, according to a number of experts, this may be due to the relocation of miners from China to other countries.
The negative news background led to a drop in bitcoin quotes below the dangerous psychological level of $30,000. As a result, the BTC/USD pair returned to where it was five months ago, on January 27, 2021. The local bottom was reached at $29,240 (a loss of about 55% from the April 14 high).
According to a number of experts, the benchmark currency could have fallen down to $25,000, but buyers came to its rescue, who were waiting for the moment to buy an asset at a large discount. As a result, the pair grew slightly, and on the evening of Friday June 25, BTC traded in the region of $32,000-33,000 per coin.
It would seem that in such a situation, the Crypto Fear & Greed Index would have to fall deep into the Extreme Fear zone, to zero. However, having shown a minimal drawdown of up to 22 points, it quickly returned to where it was a week ago, to the 25-point mark.
According to some experts, the fact that bitcoin has held up in the $30,000 area proves its exclusivity. Without it, altcoins would most likely just go into free fall.


As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the views of a number of experts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

- EUR/USD. Recall that after the June 16 meeting, the hawkish forecasts of Federal Reserve executives have dramatically revived the market's appetite for the dollar. Inspired by their rhetoric, investors rushed to buy USD even despite weak US macro statistics.
As a result, having started on June 16 from a height of 1.2125 and flying down 280 points, the EUR/USD pair completed the five-day period at 1.1845 on Friday June 18. And it turned around again and went up on Monday, June 21.
What is that? Have investors changed their minds? Or is it just a correction on the downtrend path?
On the one hand, representatives of the FRS continue to insist that the US labor market is still far from the pre-crisis level, and therefore, for now, it is necessary to maintain soft financial conditions. Such statements, coupled with improved global risk appetite and positive economic data from the Eurozone, should push the EUR/USD pair higher.     
But on the other hand, Jerome Powell and his colleagues recognized the need to discuss the process of winding up stimulus programs (QE). There was also a signal of their intention to raise interest rates earlier than expected. The ECB, on the contrary, declares that they are not going to rush to reduce QE volumes, and that the current inflation rate in the Eurozone does not cause concern. And these factors are already not playing on the side of the dollar.
The macroeconomic indicators published next week may tip the scales in one direction or another. Data on the German consumer market will be released on Tuesday June 29 and Thursday July 1, and a preliminary consumer price index will be released on Wednesday, showing the level of inflation in the Eurozone as a whole. As for the statistics from the United States, we will find out the change in the ISM business activity index in the country's manufacturing sector on July 1. And data on the US labor market will come out on June 30 and July 02, including such an important indicator as the number of new jobs created outside the agricultural sector (NFP).
In the meantime, 60% of analysts, supported by 85% of oscillators and trend indicators on D1, expect the dollar to strengthen and the pair to decline to the June 18 low of 1.1845. The next target for the bears is the March 31, 2021 low. 1.1700. The nearest support is 1.1915 and 1.1880.
The remaining 40% of the experts side with the bulls, which will try to regain the positions lost over the last month. The first serious resistance is in the 1.1985-1.2000 zone, the next one is 100 pips higher. The goal is to update the May 25 high at 1.2265;

- GBP/USD. As a reminder, British Prime Minister Boris Johnson has postponed the full opening of the country's businesses for a month. This is due to an increase in cases of infection with the Delta coronavirus strain, first discovered in India, which doubles the risk of hospitalization. The number of infections has approached 20,000 a day, and this is putting pressure on the pound. (Although only 18 people died from COVID-19 during the same period. The ratio is less than 0.001, which is a very optimistic indicator).
The increasingly unstable relations between London and Brussels after Brexit continue to put pressure on the pound. This is especially true for trade between Northern Ireland and the rest of the UK.
However, at the same time, 50% of experts hope that the British currency will find the strength to retest the level of 1.4000 and rise another 100 points higher. The nearest resistance is 1.3940. More distant targets are 1.4150 and 1.4250.
20% of analysts are betting on the victory of the dollar and the fall of the pair to the zone 1.3670-1.3700. The remaining 30% believe that the pair will remain in the sideways channel 1.3800-1.4000. 
The indicator readings look like this: 85% of the oscillators are colored red, the remaining 15% give signals that the pair is oversold. Trend indicators are also overwhelmingly in the red zone. Those are 100% on H4 and 85% on D1. Graphical analysis draws the following trading ranges: 1.3850-1.4050 for H4, 1.3770-1.4000 for D1.
As for the events of the coming week, we can note the publication of UK GDP data on Wednesday June 30, as well as the speech of the head of the Bank of England Andrew Bailey on Thursday July 1;

- USD/JPY. Who will win: USD haven currency or JPY's safe haven?  Or, if you like, you can ask the question the other way around: a safe haven currency JPY or a safe haven USD? 80% of oscillators and 90% of trend indicators on D1 bet on the dollar to win. However, the remaining 20% of the oscillators are signaling that the pair is overbought.
Graphical analysis believes that having pushed off the support in the 109.75-110.100 zone, the pair will go up, break through the resistance at 111.00 and try to first update the high of last year March 24 at 111.70, and then the high of February 20, 2020, of 112.25.
Experts? opinions on the pair's movement in the coming week were divided equally, 50 by 50. However, in the transition to the forecast for July, 75% side with the bears, believing that the USD/JPY pair will be able to drop to the area of 108.00-108.55.
In terms of macro statistics, the Bank of Japan will release the Tankan Index for Q2 of this year on July 01. This Large Producers Index reflects the general business environment for the country's large, mostly export-oriented companies. A reading above 0 is positive for the JPY, while a reading below 0 is negative. The index is projected to rise to 15, up from 5 in Q1 2021. 

- cryptocurrencies. It is highly likely that the bull and bear fight in the area of $30,000 will continue. The medium-term goal of the latter is to bring the BTC/USD pair back to the $20,000 mark, the December 2017 high, after reaching which the market was pinned down by ice frosts. Now the pair has lost about 55% in just two months. So, the current crypto winter could turn out to be much harsher than in 2018. As mentioned above, investors are actively closing long positions and liquidating futures transactions. And the heads of financial giants JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs have again declared bitcoin an unwanted investment.
Investor and founder of the hedge fund Scion Capital, Michael Burry who had predicted the 2007 mortgage crisis, warned his subscribers about the collapse of the cryptocurrency market. "All the hype and speculation is just attracting retail traders before the mother of all the crashes. Parabolic [uptrends] will not pass. [...] History has not changed,? Burry wrote. The investor also noted that the problem of the digital asset market lies in too much leverage. ?If you don?t know how much leverage is in cryptocurrencies, you don?t know anything about cryptocurrencies,? he stressed.
Burry had earlier warned that the market had inflated "the biggest bubble in history." In his post, he used the hashtag FlyingPigs360, which, according to Business Insider, may be a reference to the adage about investment: "Bulls make money, bears make money, but pigs get slaughtered."
The author of the bestselling "Rich Dad Poor Dad" entrepreneur Robert Kiyosaki joined Michael Burrie. He also expects the crypto market to collapse. ?The biggest bubble is getting bigger. The biggest crash in world history is approaching. Buy more gold and silver. Expect bitcoin to drop to $24,000,? he wrote. (Recall that in 2020, Kiyosaki advised buying the first cryptocurrency until its price exceeded $20,000 and predicted the growth of the asset to $50,000).
Jim Kramer, former Cramer & Co hedge fund manager and host of CNBC's Mad Money show, sold most of his bitcoins following news of China's mining restrictions. "When China pursues something, they tend to bring the matter to an end. I think they see bitcoin as a direct threat to the regime because of what it is - the system is beyond their control,? he said and he added that a decrease in the rate of mined coins could have a positive effect on the rate of the first cryptocurrency, but this did not happen. ?When mining is limited, bitcoin obviously has to go up, unless holders are going out all over the place.?
However, as usual, there are not only those who sell in the market, but also those who buy. Thus, for example, the founder of the Point72 Asset Management Fund Steve Cohen, unlike Jim Cramer, on the contrary, reformatted completely to cryptocurrency. Cohen, whose net worth is estimated at $14 billion, said that he does not care about the current price of bitcoin, as he is still an early investor: ?Now I definitely won't miss anything. I missed the first part, but I still feel that I got involved quite early,? says the billionaire.
The MicroStrategy company also replenished its reserves of the main cryptocurrency, having bought another 13,005 coins. This Michael Saylor firm now owns 105,085 BTC, making it the largest corporate investor in digital assets.
The company made the purchase after it raised $500 million through the placement of high-priority securities. As Sailor wrote on Twitter, the 13,005 coins were bought for just under $500 million at an average price of $37,617. In total, the businessman invested over $2.7 billion in bitcoins, and the average purchase price was $26,080, which allows the company to remain in the black for now.
In terms of forecasts, the scenario described by the popular PlanB analyst is interesting. As usual, the specialist relies on a stock-to-flow ratio (S2F) model. PlanB emphasizes that the current price pattern is consistent with a bearish scenario, however he is confident that bitcoin will hit its all-time high by October. And the price will reach $135,000 by the end of the year.
?Bitcoin fell below $34,000 due to Elon Musk's tweet about the unsustainability of bitcoin, as well as due to the panic caused by the Chinese repression against miners,? PlanB tweeted. ?However, there are more fundamental reasons for the June decline. Perhaps they will spread to July. My worst-case scenario for 2021 (based on on-chain analysis): August> $47,000, September> $43,000, October> $63,000, November> $98,000, December> $135,000." The most optimistic scenario assumes an increase in BTC to $450,000.
The weighted average forecast of experts for the coming week looks like this: 70% of them expect the BTC/USD pair to return to the $36,000 zone, the remaining 30% see it at $28,000-29,000.


NordFX Analytical Group


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market

Forex and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for July 05 - 09, 2021


First, a review of last week?s events:

- EUR/USD. Making a forecast for the previous week, the majority of analysts (60%), supported by 85% of oscillators and trend indicators, voted for the strengthening of the dollar and the decline of the EUR/USD pair to the June 18 low of 1.1845. The forecast turned out to be absolutely correct, and the pair reached the set goal as early as Wednesday, June 30. But the dollar did not stop there and its DXY index renewed a three-month high on Friday, July 02, peaking at 92.699. 
The growth of the American currency was due to the expectation that the pace of the US economic recovery will force the Fed to accelerate plans to reduce the programs of financial and credit stimulus (QE). And the market expected the strong labor market data, which was due out in mid-Friday, to push the dollar even higher.
According to the Department of Labor, the number of new jobs created in the non-agricultural sectors in the United States (Nonfarm Payrolls) actually turned out to be higher than the forecast by 150 thousand: 850 thousand instead of the estimated 700 thousand. The EUR/USD pair fell further downward, however, having reached the level of 1.1805, it unexpectedly turned around and soared to the north no less rapidly. The reason was the second published indicator: according to forecasts, the unemployment rate should have decreased from 5.8% to 5.7%, however, contrary to expectations, it rose to 5.9%.
This result showed a weak recovery in the US labor market, investors' expectations regarding the imminent tightening of the Fed's monetary policy weakened, and this supported the risk sentiment. The Dow Jones index went up, and the S&P500 and Nasdaq Composite renewed all-time highs once again. The DXY fell to 92.24 and EUR/USD closed the weekly session at 1.1863;

- GBP/USD. Concerns about the Delta COVID-19 strain are putting a lot of pressure on the pound sterling. Investors were not pleased with the data on the UK GDP for Q1, which turned out to be worse than the forecast (minus 1.6% versus minus 1.5%).
With regard to inflation, in his speech on Thursday July 1, the head of the Bank of England Andrew Bailey stressed that its high rates are temporary, as the British economy returns to the average and slows down the growth rate. This announcement pushed the pound further down. And if not for the disappointing US unemployment data, the GBP/USD pair would probably have tested the 1.3670 support. In reality, its fall was stopped at the 1.3730 horizon, and the last chord of the week sounded 100 points higher, at 1.3830;

- USD / JPY. the Bank of Japan published the value of the Tankan index for Q2 of this year on July 1. This index reflects the general business conditions for large companies in the country. A reading above 0 is considered to be a positive factor for the JPY, while a reading below 0 is considered negative. The index was projected to rise to 15, up from 5 in Q1 2021. Tankan did grow, though not to 15, but to 14. But neither its growth nor its value have had virtually any impact on the USD/JPY pair. As it was not strongly influenced by the decline in the yield of US Treasury bonds. The pair basically just copied what was happening with the DXY index. The dollar grew, and the pair also grew, breaking through the important resistance of 111.00 and finding itself at a height of 111.65 - very close with the high of March 24, 2020 - 111.70. Then the dollar collapsed, and so did the pair. True, it was able to stay above the horizon at 111.00 and finished at 111.05;

- cryptocurrencies.  The forecast, which was given seven days ago, said that "with a high degree of probability, the fight between bulls and bears in the $30,000 area will continue." This is exactly what happened. The local bottom was reached at $30,200. Then the bulls managed to raise the BTC/USD pair to $36,590, but they could not keep it above the psychologically important level of $36,000, and the price of bitcoin dropped to $32,700 on Friday, July 02.
The lack of significant victories on both sides was facilitated by a fairly calm news background. We list just a few, more or less noticeable, of these news stories:
- There was a rumor that Paraguay could be the next country after El Salvador to recognize bitcoin as legal tender. However, then it was clarified that the purpose of the bill, which will be presented to Parliament on July 14, is completely different and is to regulate digital assets, and not to turn bitcoin into a national currency.
- The panic after the mining ban in China is gradually subsiding. In China itself, authorities have banned energy companies from supplying electricity to miners. In theory, this should have brought the hash rate down to zero in the country. However, some enterprising crypto miners are trying to continue their business using small private hydroelectric power plants. Another part of mining companies migrates - some to the USA, and some, for example, to Kazakhstan. Against this background, the President of Kazakhstan signed a law on the introduction of additional payments for electricity when mining cryptocurrencies, which may negatively affect the country's attractiveness for this industry.
- Ark Invest, managed by Katie Wood, is the ninth company to apply to the US Securities and Exchange Commission to launch a Bitcoin Exchange Traded Fund (ETF).
- According to the analytical service Chainalysis, the number of crypto investors in India has exceeded 15 million, and investments in cryptocurrency over the past year have grown from about $200 million to almost $40 billion, which means an increase of 20,000%.
- A veteran of the crypto market and one of the largest holders of BTC, 41-year-old Mircea Popescu, drowned in Costa Rica. He was known as a blogger and self-proclaimed "greatest erotic writer in the world." The crypto community called him "the evil genius of bitcoin maximalism", "the father of toxicity around bitcoin" and the "sleeping giant" who "could at one moment bring bitcoin to virtually zero and hold the price for some time." The actual number of coins owned by Popescu could be between 50,000 and 300,000 BTC, making him one of the largest cryptocurrency holders in the world. Now, this huge number of bitcoins seems to have disappeared forever.
And a few words about Elon Musk (we can't do without him!). Perhaps the billionaire has already played enough with bitcoin and Dogecoin, and now he has a new hobby - BabyDoge. After his tweet with three repeated unpretentious text "Baby Doge, doo, doo, doo, doo, doo, ...", the value of this coin has increased by 500% in two weeks, and the trading volume has tripled. It is still unknown whether Musk himself made money on such a "pump".
As for the crypto market as a whole, unlike BabyDoge, its capitalization increased very slightly over the week: from $1.336 trillion to $1.381 trillion. The Bitcoin Dominance Index fell from 47.05% to 45.52%, and the BTC Crypto Fear & Greed Index found itself in the Extreme Fear zone once again, at around 21 points.


As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the views of a number of experts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

- EUR/USD. The data on inflation and consumer markets in Germany and the Eurozone are not the most encouraging. Tourism revenues are falling, due to the Delta strain of the coronavirus and the divorce from the UK. In general, optimism about the recovery of the European economy is declining.
As for the United States, Congress has raised its forecasts for 2021 both on the growth of inflation - from 1.7% to 2.8%, and on the growth of the country's economy - from 3.7% to 7.4%. The IMF expects US GDP to grow by 7%, the fastest pace since 1984. As for the interest rate, according to the IMF experts, the Fed will raise it either at the end of 2022 or at the beginning of 2023. Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia President Patrick Harker suggests starting to wind down the Asset Purchase Program (QE) as early as this year. And the faster that happens, the sooner the interest rate will be raised in 2022.
The Fed is constantly saying that it will raise the interest rate in full employment only. And if the labour market data released on July 02 were positive, it would have sent EUR/USD to the March 31 lows of 1.1700. However, instead of falling, the unemployment rate rose from 5.8% to 5.9% in June, casting doubt on the continuation of the pair's downtrend.
Before the release of unemployment data, 70% of experts sided with the bears. Now the situation has changed, and 65% expect the pair to grow during July. The same applies to indicators: 100% of oscillators and trend indicators on H4 and D1 were colored red until mid-Friday July 02. But by the time the markets closed, the color scheme on H4 had changed: some of the indicators turned into neutral grey, and some even turned green.
The nearest target of the bulls is 1.1975, then 1.2000, 1.2050 and 1.2150. The challenge for July is to update the May 25 high of 1.2265. The bears' task is to test the March low of 1.1700. The supports on the way to this target are 1.1845, 1.1800 and 1.1765.
The economic calendar for the coming week looks rather modest. It highlights Tuesday, July 06, when the Eurozone retail sales data and the ISM business activity index for the US services sector will be released;

- GBP/USD. There is no unity in inflation estimates in the ranks of the Bank of England's senior management. Suffice to listen to the soothing statements of the head of the Bank, Andrew Bailey, and the exact opposite - of the chief economist Andy Haldane, who is greatly alarmed by inflationary risks. We have already said in the first part of the review that thanks to Bailey's position, the pound came under pressure, and its quotes were ?saved? from a further fall by the increased unemployment in the US. Otherwise, the pound would have continued its decline as a pair with the euro.
The GBP/USD forecast, as with EUR/USD, changed the vector dramatically at the very end of the past week as well. If before the US unemployment data was published, 60% of analysts had expected the UK currency to weaken further, 75% vote for the growth of the pair during the month. Technical analysis readings on H4 have also mixed, although 90% of oscillators and 100% of trend indicators on D1 are still facing south. Graphic analysis on H4 indicates the pair's growth to 1.3900, and D1 shows its movement during the week in the range 1.3730-1.3870.
Support levels are 1.3800, 1.3730 and 1.3670, resistance - 1.3900, 1.4000, then the zone 1.4100-1.4165;

- USD/JPY. The indicators for this pair are almost no different from those of their EUR/USD and GBP/USD counterparts. (Only in this case, their color changes from red to green). But the opinion of experts here turned out to be more constant, it just changed quantitatively: if 55% had voted for the strengthening of the yen and the decrease in the pair, then their number increased to 75%. Graphical analysis on H4 indicates a sideways movement of the pair along the support/resistance line of 111.00, on D1 it forecasts first a decline to 110.40, and then an increase above the high of March 24, 2020, at 111.70.
The targets of the bears are the zones 109.75-110.100 and 108.00-108.55. The bulls, subject to taking the height of 111.70, will seek to raise the pair to the high of February 20, 2020, 112.25;

- cryptocurrencies. According to a report by cryptanalytics company Glassnode, institutional demand for bitcoin is declining. One of the main factors supporting the upward trend in BTC was the influx of institutional investments into the GBTC Grayscale trust fund. Glassnode analysts note that declining GBTC premiums, net outflows from ETFs, and stagnating Coinbase balance sheets indicate that demand for the main cryptocurrency from institutions remains weak.
Despite this, many of the experts are optimistic about the current situation. According to JPMorgan analysts, "the cryptocurrency market is not yet quite healthy; however, the healing process has already begun." Although bitcoin is still far from highs, cryptocurrencies are gradually recovering from the collapse. For example, the lack of activity in the bitcoin futures market is described by JPMorgan strategists as a ?positive factor.? However, the short-term outlook, in their opinion, is "extremely difficult."
Sam Trabucco, a trader at Alameda Research, also believes that the bitcoin market is already preparing for an upswing. In his opinion, a number of negative news that have been released recently have no fundamental value and is only aimed at creating short-term negative sentiments.
Trabucco writes that negative news from China, Elon Musk's concerns about the environmental friendliness of bitcoin and the likely insolvency of MicroStrategy associated with the fall in BTC are causing an overly negative reaction. Previously, the price reacted in the same way to the Tesla purchase for BTC and Musk's optimistic messages. ?But none of this news in any way affects the value of bitcoin and how people should evaluate it in the medium term,? the expert said. And he adds that the $30,000 price should be taken as a buy signal.
Jason Urban, co-head of trading at Galaxy Digital, is waiting for the market to turn north as well. He notes that negative news should exhaust itself by autumn, and bitcoin will continue its upward movement. Urban believes that many institutional investors have not yet entered the crypto market due to regulatory uncertainty, however, they will sooner or later, creating an increased demand for BTC. According to the specialist, ?we will soon see an update to the historical high,? and the quotes could reach $70,000 by the end of this year.
Former Gyft CEO and Civic project co-founder Vinny Lingham also spoke out. He was once nicknamed "the oracle" for the fact that he was able to predict the future value of the oldest cryptocurrency.
Lingham's predictions for BTC are not always optimistic, and his calls are traditionally more conservative than those of people with fantastic ideas. However, like many others, he believes there is a possibility that BTC could hit six figures as early as this year. Oracle wrote in his Twitter account that if the price continues to hold at $30,000, then we will probably see bitcoin at $100,000 by the end of the year.
Billionaire Ricardo Salinas Pliego, who is one of the top three richest people in Mexico according to Forbes, said that when choosing an asset for the next 30 years, ?would I never choose the stinking fiat?, and preferred bitcoin. Salinas believes that bitcoin should be part of every investor's portfolio. ?This is an asset that has international value and is traded globally with incredible liquidity. That's enough for it to be part of every portfolio, period."
The key advantage of bitcoin, according to the billionaire, is its limited emission. For the same reason, he does not believe in Ethereum, explaining that unlimited emission leads to the depreciation of existing assets.
Former Cramer & Co hedge fund manager and host of NBC's Mad Money show Jim Kramer is of the opposite opinion. He has again increased his savings in the second most capitalized cryptocurrency. Surprisingly, it was the positive dynamics of... bitcoin that pushed him to buy Ethereum. ?I went back to Ethereum because bitcoin held above $30,000,? he claimed. And he explained that he gave preference to this altcoin, since Ethereum is much more useful for people than the main cryptocurrency.


NordFX Analytical Group


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market

Forex and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for July 12 - 16, 2021


First, a review of last week?s events:

- EUR/USD. As predicted by the majority (65%) of experts, the dollar continued to weaken at the beginning of the week, and the EUR/USD pair went up. Disappointing data from the US labour market, released on July 02, affected the dollar. According to forecasts, the unemployment rate was supposed to fall from 5.8% to 5.7%, however, contrary to expectations, it rose to 5.9%.
The US business activity indicators released on Tuesday July 6 saved the American currency from further falling. And although the ISM index in the services sector fell to 60.1 in June (from a record 64 in May), this did not frighten investors, as a result above 50 is seen as positive and is in favor of the dollar. This is exactly what happened: having reached the height of 1.1895, the EUR/USD pair reversed and went down, reaching the local level at 1.1780 on Wednesday, July 07.
The minutes of the June meeting of the FRS, published at the end of the same day, showed that although curtailing financial and credit stimulation (QE) programs was discussed at it, it did not come to specific decisions. The regulator will still not rush to tighten monetary policy, relying only on inflation indicators, and will wait for the full recovery of the labor market. And on that end, as mentioned above, the indicators are not particularly optimistic at the moment, indicating a slowdown in the American economy.
The next day, Thursday, July 8, was the day when the euro was able to win back losses, not only because of the dovish position of the Fed, but also thanks to the publication of a new inflation target by the European Central Bank. Previously, the goal was to keep inflation ?below but near 2%.? Now, the official target level allows for exceeding or lagging the indicator at certain points in time. At the same time, the head of the ECB Christine Lagarde stressed that her bank will not copy the new strategy of the Fed and will not specifically stimulate the growth of consumer prices in order to reach the average.
The growth of the European currency and a decrease in global risk appetite caused by the spread of the delta strains of coronavirus helped. Carry traders began to close positions open on high-interest currencies in developing countries and return to fund currencies such as EUR and JPY.     
As a result of all the fluctuations and changes in trends, the five-day total can be considered close to zero, the EUR/USD pair ended the weekly session almost the same as it started ?at 1.1877;

- GBP/USD. The dynamics of the British pound against the dollar last week followed the movements of its European counterpart. The prediction given by the graphical analysis proved to be the most accurate, it indicated first the GBP/USD growth to 1.3870-1.3900 and then its lateral movement in 1.3730-1.3870 channel. In reality, adjusted for a few points, that's what happened. As for the last chord of the week, it sounded near the upper boundary of the channel, at 1.3890;

- USD/JPY. The competition over which currency is the best refuge from financial storms continues. And the yen won it with a clear advantage last week, having outperformed the dollar by 100 points. As predicted by the vast majority of experts (75%), the pair moved purposefully south for the entire first half of the week, recording a local low on the horizon of 109.50 on July 07. At one point, thanks to flight from stock market of investors and falling US government bond yields, its superiority was as much as 150 points.
Then, against the backdrop of the recovery in the yield of US Treasuries to 1.3433%, the dollar was able to win back some losses, and the pair finished at 110.10;

- cryptocurrencies. A poll by Morning Brew found that what retail crypto investors fear most is... Elon Musk's tweets. This was confirmed by another survey conducted by Investing.com. According to its results, one in five respondents who sold bitcoin in May 2021 associated this decision with Musk's criticism of the cryptocurrency.
To be sure, his tweets, like bans on cryptocurrency transactions in China, triggered the collapse, which saw bitcoin collapse from a height of $64,600 to $30,000. However, many experts believe that the main reason for what happened is the use of leverage in the crypto market, otherwise margin trading, which allows traders to open large positions with little funds. And it was the avalanche-like closing of such positions that led to a drop in quotations and a decrease of more than 45% in the total capitalization of the crypto market.
As for the Chinese authorities, they continue to squeeze virtual currencies out of the country. The People's Bank of China said bitcoin and stablecoins pose a threat to financial security and social stability and has banned the provision of a range of services to companies associated with the market, including software development, rental of premises and marketing services.
At the moment, large capital is watching the migration process of miners from the PRC. And the country in which they will resume their work is of particular interest. If it's going to be the US, it's likely to bolster the industry's image in the eyes of institutionals. Especially since Crypto Head estimates that of 76 countries, the United States is the best prepared for mass adoption of digital assets. However, it is believed that miners fear the US authorities no less than the Chinese. And therefore, they can choose the countries of Central Asia - Kazakhstan, Mongolia, etc., where there are territories with a cold climate and access to relatively cheap energy resources. Although not everything is so smooth here. For example, as we wrote, Kazakhstan had already passed a law on additional energy charges for cryptocurrencies in anticipation of miners.
Note that due to the bans introduced in China, the hash rate in the blockchain fell by almost 50%. This led to major changes in the complexity of the algorithm, and an equally serious increase in the profits of the remaining miners. They are now earning income, about the same as at BTC's $60,000 cost.
As for investors, they have been watching the main cryptocurrency trying to rise above the resistance of $ 36,000 for the third week. Another attempt by the bulls last week was unsuccessful again, and the BTC/USD pair was trading in the $32,500-33,500 zone by Friday night July 09.
The total crypto market capitalization has changed insignificantly over the week: from $1.358 trillion to $1.370 trillion. That being said, there has been a small flow of funds from altcoins (including ethereum) to bitcoin over the past few days. JP Morgan?s analyst Nikolaos Panigirtsoglou also noted this in an interview with CNBC. This move has reversed a trend that began in April when there was a large inflow of funds into altcoins and could mean that the bear market for BTC is coming to an end. But it is clearly premature to talk about any serious progress. This is confirmed by quotes, capitalization volumes, and readings of the Crypto Fear & Greed Index, which is still in the Extreme Fear zone, having dropped by 1 point over the week, from 21 to 20.


As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the views of a number of experts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

- EUR/USD. It seems that the epidemiological situation associated with the spread of new strains of COVID-19 is coming to the fore again. Risk cravings are falling and investors, fearing a repeat of last year's situation, are once again beginning to gravitate towards protective assets. Stock indices - Nasdaq, Dow Jones, S & P500 - stopped growing, going into a sideways trend. And impressive black candles appeared on their daily charts. In parallel, demand for U.S. Treasury liabilities rose: the yield on Treasuries fell to a new multi-month low, to 1.25%.
Despite the worsening epidemiological situation, the European Commission has raised its forecast for GDP growth in the Eurozone from 4.3% to 4.8% in 2021. The growth of economic activity should be influenced by the softening of quarantine measures (if it continues, of course) and the mass vaccination of the population. GDP is expected to return to pre-crisis levels as early as Q4 of this year, a quarter earlier than forecast, and this could prompt the ECB to start winding down QE programmes more quickly.
But if European inflation and GDP are growing by 2% and 4.8%, then the growth of similar American indicators is 5% and 7%, respectively. And who will start tightening monetary policy earlier, we wonder? Yes, the Fed has taken a wait-and-see, almost dovish position. But there are not so many hawks among the ECB's leadership, and its current position is more like a compromise between supporters of monetary expansion and their opponents.
Experts? opinion on the EUR/USD pair's immediate future can also be considered a compromise, with 40% in favour of growth, 45% in favour of falling, and 15% for continuing the side trend. At the same time, the number of supporters of a weaker dollar and a stronger euro rises to 60% when you move to the forecast by the end of summer.
Among the trend indicators and oscillators on H4, 70% are colored green, 30% - red. On D1, the situation is different: 70% of trend indicators look down, and the oscillator readings are a mixture of red, green and neutral gray. Graphical analysis on H4 indicates a sideways trend within the 1.1780-1.1900 channel.
The nearest target of the bulls is 1.1900, then 1.1975, 1.2000, 1.2050 and 1.2150. The challenge for July is to update the May 25 high of 1.2265. The bears' task is to test the March low of 1.1700. The supports on the way to this target are 1.1845, 1.1800 and 1.1780.
The following events can be noted in the economic calendar for the coming week. German and US consumer market data will be released on Tuesday July 13. US Federal Reserve Chief Jerome Powell is scheduled to speak in Congress on Wednesday and Thursday, and another set of US consumer data, including retail sales and the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index, will close the working week on Friday July 16;

- GBP/USD. The UK's GDP, trade and industrial production figures did not reach forecast values. And this will put some pressure on the pound. But despite this, 60% of analysts vote on the GBP/USD pair's move north.
It finished the last week, rising to the 1.3900 zone. The mid-term chart clearly shows that this level is in the central part of the 1.3700-1.4000 channel. Therefore, the pair has many chances to continue the upward movement to its upper border.
The remaining 40% of experts, in agreement with the graphical analysis on H4, believe that the British currency will not be able to break through the resistance of 1.3900 so far, including due to a new wave of COVID-19 spread in the country.
The indicators' readings are almost completely consistent with their readings for EUR/USD. In terms of macroeconomic statistics, the June Consumer Price Index (CPI) will be known on Wednesday 14 July, which is projected to rise from 2.1% to 2.2 per cent. And the next day, a portion of data on the state of the UK labour market, including claims for unemployment benefits and the country's unemployment rate, awaits us. Recall that a rise in the same indicator in the US hit the dollar on the first Friday in July. For the United Kingdom, it is expected to remain flat at 4.7%;

- USD/JPY. It is almost impossible to bring the indicator readings for this pair to any denominator, neither on H4, nor on D1. Will it continue its upward trend, which began in early January? Will it be able to gain a foothold above 111.00? A new impetus to this movement was given after the correction on April 26, and only now the first hint of a trend breakdown and a breakout of the lower border of this channel has appeared.
We spoke above about the reasons for the strengthening of the yen last week. However, it is not possible to catch investor sentiment, as well as indicators, for the week ahead. The experts' voices are almost equally divided: 30% side with the bulls, 40% side with the bears, and 40% just shrug their shoulders.
Graphical analysis on D1 first indicates a sideways movement of the USD/JPY pair in the 109.50-111.00 trading range, and only then does it rule out the continuation of the uptrend and its breakout to 112.00.
The Bank of Japan's interest rate decision and the traditional subsequent press conference of its management may be of some interest the week ahead. Both of these events are scheduled for Friday July 16. And most likely, there will be no surprises for us, and Japan will once again reaffirm its title as an ultra-quiet haven for investors;

- cryptocurrencies. Bitcoin's daily trading volume has dropped to its lowest level since early 2021, according to analyst firm Arcane Research. The BTC/USD pair is trying unsuccessfully to climb above the $36,000 horizon for the third week in a row. The fact that it has been trading near local lows since the end of May, of course, scares investors. A dip below the current low of $28,800 could lead to another massive sell-off and a new crypto winter.
At the same time, a number of experts interpret the current situation as a phase of accumulation according to the Wyckoff method. This means that $28,800 is the minimum of the correction (?Spring?), and a stepwise growth should be expected in the future. Wyckoff's scheme will be confirmed if bitcoin fixes above the $36,000 resistance.
- Popular cryptanalyst PlanB (609,000 subscribers) outlined the worst scenario of the main cryptocurrency movement. This expert is known for applying to bitcoin the stock-to-flow ratio (S2F) model, previously traditionally applied to commodities such as gold and silver. According to PlanB's calculations, the worst-case scenario for bitcoin in July is closing the month at $28,000. In August, this is where the worst-case closing scenario could be $47,000. According to him, the next six months will determine whether, by the end of the bull race, BTC will actually be able to reach the six-digit range and, as a result, reach the $288,000 mark.
It should be noted that the forecasts of the institutions look much more modest. For example, CNBC conducted a Wall Street survey of nearly 100 investment directors, financial strategists and portfolio managers. 44% of them believe that bitcoin will close 2021 with a price below $30,000. 25% of respondents believe that the rate of the first cryptocurrency at that time will reach $40,000. A similar proportion of respondents chose the $50,000 level, with only 6% predicting a rise to $60,000.
Discussing the results, the channel's hosts agreed with the short-term outlook in general, noting that even $30,000 for the end of the year would alleviate many of the concerns of market participants by setting a long-term bottom.
While assessing altcoin prospects, many experts, including Galaxy Digital cryptocurrency bank founder Michael Novogratz, say that Ethereum may well weaken bitcoin in the future and become the foundation for pricing in the market. BTC became popular as a means of saving. But if you sum up the number of projects and directions working on the ETH blockchain, the advantage of Ethereum becomes obvious. Stablecoins, De-Fi, and NFT tokens work on its blockchain. The ETH platform has the potential to become the foundation for the upcoming Web 3.0. However, there is one issue: Ethereum is facing stiff competition from Solana, Terra and other ecosystems in this direction.
Experts from Goldman Sachs, one of the largest investment banks, also believe that today ethereum is the cryptocurrency with the highest real use potential that can overtake bitcoin. But at the same time, the bank's experts are also confident that neither bitcoin, nor ethereum, nor any other cryptocurrency will overtake gold in popularity in the near future. Because of its high volatility, digital assets cannot be accepted as a safe haven by investors, and therefore lose out in direct competition with this precious metal.


NordFX Analytical Group


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

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