EUR/USD

Posts: 13 · #46 - July 15, 2019, 09:59:48 AM

Markets flat after Chinese data
It’s looking a little flat ahead of the European open on Monday, with data from China overnight offering another reminder of the damaging effects of trade wars.

China’s economy grew by only 6.2% in the second quarter, its slowest rate of growth in 27 years. There’s no doubt in anyone’s minds that the trade war is a major contributing factor here, especially coming at a time when the economy was already in the midst of a slowdown as it transitions away from the heavy investment, export led model to a more sustainable domestically driven one.

While industrial production, fixed asset investment and, maybe more importantly, retail sales all exceeded expectations, all the focus has been on that lower growth number. Unemployment also rose slightly but this has been volatile in the past so won’t be causing too much concern.
Chinese stocks staged something of a recovery as the session wore on but the trend is not their friend at the moment. Stocks throughout the rest of the region only posted small gains which hasn’t offered much direction for Europe and the US, where futures are looking a little flat currently.

Posts: 1215 · #47 - November 07, 2019, 04:24:02 AM

EURUSD has the opportunity to move down in the short term to test the support level at 1.1040 - 1.1000 behind the latest statement from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) which says that economic growth in the Eurozone can be slower than previously estimated. EURUSD has a chance to move up to test resistance at 1.1100 - 1.1140 if the release of German industrial production data at 14:00 WIB and the EU economic forecast at 17:00 WIB the result is seen as optimistic by the market.

Posts: 21 · #48 - November 14, 2019, 03:17:32 AM

>> EURO weakened in the risk-off market after industrial production shocks.
>> Production rose in September when the market foretold another contraction.
>> But uncertainty over the US-China talks, EU car tariffs weighed on the EUR.
>> Trump's speech in NY sparked questions about the prospects of a trade war.

EURO weakened against the U.S. Dollar and other major currencies on Wednesday even after shocking industrial production data in September, due to concerns over the U.S. trade policy leaving investors in a risk-off atmosphere and holding back appetite for a single currency.

Eurozone industrial production rose 0.1 percent in September when the market sought a 0.2 percent decline, which confirmed a message from a relational data earlier that had explained to investors that the decline in continental industry was not as severe as had been expected in the third quarter.
Figures on Wednesday showed output is still down in Germany, Spain and Italy but is increasing in France, Ireland and other countries.
Headline levels are said to have been driven by results for Ireland which were very strong, although the data did much to raise GDP growth expectations for the quarter.

EURO moved up to the US Dollar on Wednesday, after consumer prices in October rose more than they should and Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell offered an optimistic outlook for the economy .
US consumer prices jumped the most in seven months in October, a report from the Labor Department showed, because health care costs jumped the most in more than three years.
The Fed has cut interest rates by three .

EU moves down 0.04 percent in the range of 1.1010 .
The dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of currencies, moved up 0.02 percent in the 98.35 range.
The closest resistance is in the range 1.1035, a valid breakout above that area will receive an increase up to the range 1.1060 .
On the downside, support is seen in he range 1.0985, a valid breakout below that area will be agreed to return the decline to the range of 1.0955 .

Posts: 9575 · #49 - December 11, 2019, 10:29:59 PM

Today the ECB will announce interest rates in December 2019 which will have a high impact on EURUSD. At the last meeting on October 24, the ECB kept the benchmark interest rate at 0.00%, the lending rate at + 0.25%, and the deposit rate at -0.50%. The central bank also said it would keep interest rates at low levels until the inflation rate rose to near the 2% level according to projections. At today's meeting analysts expect the ECB will still maintain its benchmark interest rate at 0.00%. If the ECB cuts its benchmark interest rate, it is estimated that EURUSD will weaken.