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Fundamental Issue

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Newsfundamental

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Optimistic outlook took a hit today as China’s economic growth showed to have slowed to 6.2% y/y in 2Q from 6.4% y/y in 1Q. This was the slowed pace in 27 years (1992). Markets took a bit of comfort in China’s decent retail sales, capital spending, and industrial production data. Last week, China’s export growth slowed from 1.1% y/y in May to -1.3% in June. Yet the steady pace of slowdown continuing as threats of a trade war and slowing global and domestic demand is taking a toll on China outlook. This fall will increase pressure on the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) to further ease and continue with unconventional measures to support the economy. Expectations for the PBoC to wait for signal a new easing bias until the Fed has lowered interest rates are relevant only because the FOMC and forecast 25bp cut, is just around the corner. In reality, the PBoC needs to act and not just with micro tunings such as targeting RRR cuts and medium-term lending facility. Elsewhere, data indicates China has been a net seller of Treasuries for two consecutive months, with total holdings falling to a two year low. Part of this fall is based on revaluation and lower organic demand for USD but there should also consider a political motivation. Clearly, Chinas massive US bond buying operation and low cost funding provides leverage in US-China tariff war.
#16 - July 15, 2019, 09:55:08 AM

zanurreload

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GBP / USD turned strong in yesterday's trading session (19 / July). A report shows that Michel Barnier, head of the EU negotiator for brexit negotiations, is open to alternative solutions to the Irish border problem which has hindered the achievement of the Brexit agreement. In addition, the House of Commons issued an amendment restricting PM replacement Theresa May from suspending Parliament before Brexit
#17 - July 19, 2019, 10:49:31 PM

Alfrians

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The AUDUSD has settled at its lowest level since June 21, and maintains a strong bearish stance, according to technical readings on the daily chart, because it is now developing below all its MAs, and with 20 DMA gaining strength below a larger DMA. The Momentum indicator heads lower below the 100 level, while the RSI accelerates its slump, heading sharply south around 39. In the 4-hour chart, the 20 SMA crosses below a larger SMA, maintaining a strong bearish slope, while the technical indicators have stabilized on extreme oversold levels, more reflecting the lack of volume on weekends than showing fatigue down. A break below 0.6880, immediate support, will anticipate a further decline towards the 0.6820 price zone.
#18 - July 29, 2019, 12:27:50 AM

zanurreload

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Trump plans to increase import tariffs by 10 percent for Chinese goods worth 300 billion dollars as of September 1 because the trade talks in Shanghai do not bring significant progress. This time the 10 percent tariff increase is targeting imported goods from China that were previously "not subject to additional tariffs". This means that currently almost all Chinese goods entering the US market are subject to a higher tariff. Trump's bold move sent a shock wave on global financial markets, hitting risk appetite so that the safe haven currency would benefit most from this condition. Trump, speaking to reporters yesterday, said that he could raise the tariffs on Chinese goods even by 25 percent, depending on the progress of talks with president Xi Jinping in the coming months.
#19 - August 02, 2019, 01:37:34 AM

harianto22

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Quote from: zanurreload on August 02, 2019, 01:37:34 AM
Trump plans to increase import tariffs by 10 percent for Chinese goods worth 300 billion dollars as of September 1 because the trade talks in Shanghai do not bring significant progress. This time the 10 percent tariff increase is targeting imported goods from China that were previously "not subject to additional tariffs". This means that currently almost all Chinese goods entering the US market are subject to a higher tariff. Trump's bold move sent a shock wave on global financial markets, hitting risk appetite so that the safe haven currency would benefit most from this condition. Trump, speaking to reporters yesterday, said that he could raise the tariffs on Chinese goods even by 25 percent, depending on the progress of talks with president Xi Jinping in the coming months.
if donald trump raises the tariff by 10%, the USD is likely to weaken
#20 - August 04, 2019, 10:18:48 PM

donat21

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Quote from: harianto22 on August 04, 2019, 10:18:48 PM
if donald trump raises the tariff by 10%, the USD is likely to weaken
Yes, that's right ... Now the USD has weakened in almost all major pairs
#21 - August 09, 2019, 02:06:55 AM

press

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On Friday (09 / August), the Japanese Department of Statistics released second-quarter GDP data which recorded growth of 0.4 percent quarterly, better than the consensus of economists predicting that the economy of Sakura will only grow by 0.1 percent. Nevertheless, Japan's Preliminier GDP figures in the second quarter were still lower than the previous period which recorded a quarterly growth of 0.6 percent.
#22 - August 09, 2019, 02:17:49 AM

BeJimmieelify

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Unfortunately due to repeated requests to abide to the rules and not doing so I have had to use the "Registered User - Moderated" Group... I do not like doing this but when after repeated requests to abide by the rules and/or offer business services to members without becoming an approved trader and not acting on it, it was the only option left.

From now on all posts made will need to be approved or removed by one of the team BEFORE they appear.

Please DO NOT contact any of the team to ask why, you know why and you will not receive a reply.
#23 - September 23, 2019, 10:26:15 AM

zanurreload

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The US dollar continued its rally after US ISM Non Manufacturing PMI data reportedly rose above expectations. At the time of writing, Tuesday (05 / November) night, the US Dollar Index rose 0.41 percent and traded at around 97.96, the highest since October 30. This afternoon, the US currency also rose, supported by positive developments in the US-China negotiations. ISM reports, the US Non-Manufacturing PMI, or often referred to as the Services PMI, reached the level of 54.7 in October 2019, up from 52.6 in September. These results also far exceeded expectations of a rise to as low as 53.5. According to ISM, the rise in the US service sector was actually more due to the "statistical base effect" due to a greater slump in the index in the previous month.
#24 - November 05, 2019, 11:46:35 PM

zanurreload

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Rumors about the US-China negotiations returned to fresh air. This morning, the Xinhua news agency reported that the two disputing parties had been having "constructive discussions" over the weekend. This is in line with the optimism expressed by White House Adviser Larry Kudlow and US Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross last week. However, market participants are already skeptical.
#25 - November 18, 2019, 10:21:51 PM

feru

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today there is a FOMC meeting, I think we have to be careful trading for today
#26 - November 20, 2019, 03:00:21 AM

zanurreload

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China has demanded the cancellation of import tariffs since the middle of last year. This makes many parties assess if China will withdraw its willingness to compromise with the US if Trump does not promise cancellation of tariffs. In fact, the US President actually intends to increase tariffs again if there is no agreed meeting point. The Chinese hardliner in the US government won a great victory after the Senate passed a bill that could influence diplomatic action or economic sanctions against human rights violators in the current Hong Kong riots. The passing of the legislation by the Senate practically opened the way for him to be immediately signed by President Donald Trump.
#27 - November 20, 2019, 09:54:06 PM

Alfrians

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In early 2020, news of the agreement on the date of the first US-China trade agreement on January 15, 2020, has the opportunity to give an optimistic tone to the market. But tensions in the Middle East still limit the attitude of market participants to be more careful.

On December 31, the US announced that President Trump & Xi would sign the first stage of the agreement between the two countries on January 15, 2020. But the market had not yet responded significantly amid the New Year's holiday and US military action in the Middle East.
#28 - January 02, 2020, 04:05:56 AM
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