NFP (Non-Farm Payrolls)

ENGLAND AND EU ACHIEVE BREXIT REVISION AGREEMENTS

Britain and the European Union reached a revised Brexit agreement in the final minutes of Monday night with them finally eliminating the biggest obstacle point in their Brexit divorce agreement, just hours before the British Parliament will decide on an agreement on Tuesday (12/3) night.

Ahead of the parliamentary vote, May flew to Strasbourg, France, to look for revisions, guarantees or other changes from European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker who would persuade British legislators who were reluctant to support withdrawal agreements with the European Union.

PM May said the new documents to be added to the agreement provided "legally binding changes" to parts relating to the Irish border. The legal withdrawal agreement of 585 pages was left intact.

"In politics, sometimes you get a second chance. What you do with this second chance is taken into account. Because there won't be a third chance," Juncker warned British lawmakers who would vote or not in the draft on Tuesday night.

May said the changes must address parliamentarians' doubts about the mechanisms in the agreement designed to keep open borders between Northern Ireland and the EU member states of Ireland. The mechanism, known as backstop, is a protection that will keep Britain in the customs agency together with the European Union until there are new permanent trade relations.

Brexit supporters in the UK are worried that the backstop can be used to tie the country to EU regulations without limits even though the UK itself has been released from the EU on March 29.

May said the new words "will guarantee that the European Union cannot act with the intention of implementing backstop without limits."

"Now is the time to jointly support this better Brexit agreement and fulfill the wishes of the British people," he said.

But the change seems to be far from the demands of pro Brexit MPs at the UK exit mechanism from the backstop. They want the UK to decide to leave the customs agency with the EU unilaterally without an agreement with the EU.

Pro-Brexit lawmakers said they would read the draft agreement on the revised results first and await the decision of the British attorney general before deciding how to vote on Tuesday.

ADB PREDICTION OF EMERGING MARKET ECONOMIC GROWTH SLOWS IN TWO YEARS


The Asian Development Bank (ADB) predicts economic growth in emerging market countries in the Asian region is expected to slow for two consecutive years in 2019 and lose further momentum in 2020.

This ADB analysis considers the possibility of increasing economic risk from the protracted US-China trade war and potentially chaotic Brexit.

In the Asia Development Outlook report, ADB revealed that the economy of 45 Asian developing countries in the Asia-Pacific region is expected to grow 5.7 this year. This growth is lower than the projections carried out last year where ADB estimated growth of 5.8 percent in 2018 and growth of 6.2 percent in 2017.

IMF Will Reduce Global Growth

While the International Monetary Fund (IMF) plans to cut further global growth projections this year. The IMF estimates that global economic growth this year will be slower than previous projections. The reason is, two-thirds of world countries tend to experience an economic slowdown.

This was conveyed by IMF Managing Director Christine Lagarde in a speech ahead of the spring meeting with the World Bank, Tuesday (2/4/2019) local time.

According to him, the world economy is vulnerable to shocks caused by Brexit, high debt levels, trade wars, and anxiety in the financial markets. Lagarde will announce this global economic outlook next week.

This is the third time the IMF has cut its forecast for global economic growth. First, in October last year the IMF had cut the global economic outlook, from 3.9 percent to 3.7 percent.

Then on January 21 the IMF estimated global growth this year at 3.5 percent, down from last year's 3.7 percent growth and from the 3.7 percent forecast made last October.

US LABOR MARKET RETURNS BACK IN MARCH, ADDING 196 THOUSANDS OF WORKERS



Job creation recorded a solid increase in March, with the non-farm payrolls figure increasing by 196,000 and the unemployment rate steady at 3.8%, according to the labor statistics bureau report on Friday.

The figure was better than the Dow Jones estimate of 175,000 growth and came after disappointing growth in February that made economists wonder whether the economic expansion that had been around for a long time was nearing its end. For the unemployment rate in accordance with expectations.

For wage growth rates down from the strong pace of late, it only rose 0.14% to the monthly level and 3.2% at the annual rate, below expectations for 3.4% growth,

The US non-farm payroll figure for this month came after a sharp decline in February which only added 20,000, which was finally revised up to 33,000 in a March report. The large increase in January which amounted to 311,000 was also pushed up to 312,000, becoming an average increase in the past three months to 180,000. This is still quite solid under the monthly average increase of 233,000 throughout 2018,

trading of major currency pairs is very active. At the same time there is no one-way trend (unidirectional). The dollar index (#DX) consolidates near bi-weekly highs. Hopes for a trade agreement between Washington and Beijing have led to an increase in demand for risk assets. US President Donald Trump said that the two countries were very close to a trade agreement that might be announced in four weeks. Investors continue to monitor the situation regarding Brexit. On Friday, the US published a fairly optimistic labor market report for March. Financial market participants look forward to the minutes of the FOMC meeting and the ECB meeting.

Economists at Goldman Sachs Group Inc
predict the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike will back up to three quarters of the original forecast. 
The bank from the United States now estimates that the Fed will raise interest in the fourth quarter of 2020 from the first quarter of the same year.

Goldman economists say the Federal Reserve faces the challenge of raising interest rates amid low inflation and political oversight, especially from President Donald Trump, against the central bank's decision.

This shift in the estimated increase in interest occurred even when Sachs raised its estimate of US gross domestic product to 2.5 percent in the second half of 2019 and 2.25 percent in the first half of 2020.

The better factor in US economic growth makes Goldman Sachs sure there will be a second increase in the Fed's interest in 2021.

"Amid the conditions of the expansion of the normal US business cycle on trends, the tightening of a sustainable labor market, and sustained easing in financial conditions, we think that the FOMC is likely to continue at least a very gradual tightening step," Goldman economists included Jan Hatzius and David Mericle in his notes.

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