US Retail Sales

US MANUFACTURER PRICE INDEX UP 0.1% IN FEBRUARY


The US producer price index only rose slightly in February, adding to evidence for a sluggish start to the current economic year.

The US Department of Labor reported that the producer price index rose 0.1% last month, while the core producer price index, which excludes food and energy prices, also only rose 0.1%.

In the 12 months to February, prices rose 1.9% and 2.5% for each.

Coupled with the pessimistic report on Tuesday in consumer price data, data indicate there is little need for the Federal Reserve to change its latest guidelines on interest rates, which say they will be "patient" to determine what sort of misses in the future the target range for interest rates The US is probably the right thing.

The Fed is relaxing this data because high producer prices tend to be passed at high costs to consumers.

U.S. housing development fell more than predicted in February as the number of family home construction fell nearing a two-year low, giving more evidence of a sharp slowdown in US economic activity earlier in the year.

Economic concerns were also underlined by other data on Tuesday which showed consumer confidence receded in March, with households a little pessimistic about the labor market. The economy faces increasing challenges, including slowing global growth, waning fiscal stimulus, trade tensions, and uncertainty over Britain's departure from the European Union.

Concerns contributed to the Federal Reserve's decision last week to stop its monetary tightening policy suddenly, because it decided there would be no increase in interest rates this year.

"The sweetness of the US economy is almost gone," said Joel Naroff, chief economist at Naroff Economic Advisors in Holland, Pennsylvania. "The risk is more towards the negative side than the positive side."

Housing starts fell 8.7 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.162 million units last month, the Commerce Department said. This decline was the biggest in eight months, and bad weather could contribute to the sharp decline in housing construction last month.

Building permits also fell 1.6 percent to the level of 1,296 million units in February, the second consecutive monthly decline in permits, they now go beyond the start, which shows an increase in housing construction in the coming months.

While indicators of economic weakness also came from the consumer confidence index. The Conference Board's third report on Tuesday showed the index of consumer confidence fell 7.3 points to a reading of 124.1 in March. Consumer confidence has been volatile in recent months, the Conference Board said "the overall trend in confidence has softened since last summer, indicating moderation in economic growth."

Consumer assessment of business conditions and the labor market is currently weakening in March. The survey, referred to as labor market differences, came from data about respondents who thought jobs were hard to come by and those who thought employment was abundant, dropped to an eight-month low.

AMOUNT OF US RETAIL SALES DOWN IN FEBRUARY 2019 PERIOD


US retail sales figures fell in February, this is a signal of the latest economic growth that has shifted to low gear when the stimulus from a tax reduction of $ 1.5 trillion and increased government spending fade.

The US Commerce Department reported Monday that retail sales fell 0.2% as households again reduced purchases of furniture, clothing, food, electronics and building materials. Data for January was revised higher to show retail sales rose 0.7% from a previously reported increase of 0.2%.

Previous economists surveyed by Reuters forecast retail sales to rise 0.3% in February. Retail sales in February rose 2.2% from a year ago.

US DOLLARS STRENGTHENED, SUPPORTED AS-CHINA OPTIMISM TRADING

in trading Friday 05.04.2019 USD strengthened.

Optimism to reach a US-China trade agreement helped the US dollar strengthen on Friday, although broad movements in the currency market were limited as investors saw a lot of headlines but there were no conclusions from the trade talks.

Xinhua reported that the Chinese President had said that progress had been made in trade talks with Washington and called for immediate conclusions from negotiations.

US President Donald Trump said on Thursday that an agreement could be announced in about four weeks, but also warned it would be difficult to allow trade with China with the United States if the problem was not resolved.

From the United States the labor statistics bureau reported that the economy added 196,000 workers in March, and the unemployment rate held steady at 3.8%.

The US-China trade talks seem to be heading towards conclusions, at least as seen from the latest statements by US officials. Finance Minister Steven Mnuchin said the two parties would set up a law enforcement office to regulate the compliance of other parties with rules, an important point for China earlier in the discussion.

Reuters reports that the US has supported their earlier insistence that China subsidizes the industrial sector so that their products can be competitive in price.

The market continued to be impressed by Friday's Chinese data, which was surprising because of the increase in exports and saw a significant increase in the growth of public lending. There was a lot of discussion over the weekend about whether improved Chinese data, offsetting global growth concerns, would continue to support equity. A meeting of International Monetary Fund officials in Washington DC issued a joint communique warning about global economic growth, following a gloomy assessment by the IMF chief economist on April 10. The leaders warned of the danger of protectionism, and vowed to "reduce risk, increase resilience, and, if necessary, act immediately to sustain growth" if conditions deteriorate.

news for this week the USD is still slightly stronger.

The US Federal Reserve on Wednesday kept interest rates steady at around 2.25% - 2.50% and signaled that they have not been interested in adjusting interest rates in the near future, taking guidance from the still strong increase in employment and economic growth and the possibility of inflation Weak will move higher.

Fed Chair Jerome Poweel at his press conference after the end of the two-day policy meeting said that we thought our policy stance was right at the moment, we did not see any strong potential to shift it to either increase or decrease. Overall I see we are on a good track this year.

Other Fed policymakers also said that continued economic growth, the strength of the labor market and finally a rise in inflation were still "the most likely results" because US expansion was near a 10-year high.

In a statement overnight the Fed responded to US President Donald Trump's call for a full percentage reduction in interest rates and took other steps to stimulate the economy, saying that labor market was still strong and economic activity had risen to a solid level in recent weeks.

Last week, the testimony of Fed Chair Jerome Powell lit the alarm for the USD bulls. According to him, interest rate cuts need to be done if weighing uncertainty in the global economy that continues to strengthen. Trading tension between the US and China, as well as manufacturing and investment setbacks around the world are called the main reasons the Fed chairman takes a dovish attitude. This of course makes the USD react immediately. The greenback weakened against all major currencies. Even a positive CPI was unable to secure USD bears in its movements. In this case, we will again be forced to focus on being aware of comments by FOMC members to get further clues regarding the possibility of interest rate cuts at the next FOMC meeting. Jerome Powell's speech and one of the FOMC members Charles Evans during the American trading session on Tuesday could potentially shake the USD once again. Then it will be followed by the Fed regulator's speech on Thursday and Friday. If the tone of their speech this time is more hawkish, the USD has a chance to rise. Conversely, more dominant dovish comments will drag the USD down.