CryptoNews of the Week by NordFX

CryptoNews of the Week


? Bitcoin experienced a rapid ascent on October 23 and 24, reaching a level of $35,188 for the first time since May 2022. This surge in the value of the leading cryptocurrency was driven by a combination of real-world events and high-impact speculative and false news related to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).
For instance, Reuters and Bloomberg reported that the SEC would not contest the court's decision in favour of Grayscale Investments. (To recap, at the end of August, the court granted Grayscale's lawsuit challenging the regulator's refusal to approve its application to launch a bitcoin ETF. Consequently, the company has effectively obtained permission from the U.S. court to convert its flagship fund, GBTC, into a spot bitcoin ETF). Additionally, there was news of the SEC discontinuing its legal proceedings against Ripple and its executives.
Discussions also revolved around the potential approval of an ETF for Ethereum and rumours of BlackRock's spot BTC-ETF gaining approval. BlackRock confirmed last week that this news was false. Nevertheless, the short squeeze prompted by this counterfeit news somewhat bolstered the cryptocurrency's growth, unsettling the market. The initial local trend gained momentum due to a series of liquidations of short positions opened with substantial leverage. According to Coinglass, a total of $161 million worth of such positions were liquidated.
Undoubtedly, the news was fabricated, but as the saying goes, there's no smoke without fire. A spot exchange-traded fund on bitcoin by BlackRock, named iShares Bitcoin Trust, appeared on the list maintained by the Depository Trust and Clearing Corporation (DTCC). BlackRock informed the SEC about the planned commencement of a seed round in October for its spot BTC-ETF, and it may have already initiated the acquisition of cryptocurrency for this purpose. This also fueled speculations and rumors that approval for their ETF is inevitable.
In discussing the catalysts for bitcoin's surge, it's also essential to mention the drop in the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) to monthly lows on October 23rd, a decline attributed to the reduction in 10-year treasury yields. Additionally, several experts believe that technical factors played a role - technical analysis has long signaled the possibility of a bull rally after breaking out of a sideways trend.

? Another reason cited by experts for bitcoin's rise is the inflation issues in the United States and geopolitical risks such as the escalation of tensions in the Middle East. As explained by Zach Pandl, the Managing Director of Grayscale Investments, many investors view bitcoin as "digital gold" and aim to use it to minimize financial risks. According to CoinShares, investments in crypto funds increased by $66 million last week, marking the fourth consecutive week of capital inflow.

? Optimism regarding the SEC registration of many spot bitcoin ETFs has increased, and a positive decision is expected "within months." This conclusion has been drawn by analysts at JPMorgan. Specialists have taken note of the lack of an SEC appeal against the court's decision in the Grayscale case. The regulator has been instructed not to obstruct the transformation of the bitcoin trust into an exchange-traded fund. "The timing of approval [...] remains uncertain, but it is likely to occur [...] by January 10, 2024 - the final deadline for the ARK Invest and 21 Co. applications. This is the earliest of various final deadlines to which the SEC must respond," noted JPMorgan. Experts also emphasize that the Commission may choose to approve all proposals at once to ensure fair competition.

? In the distant future, the security of the first cryptocurrency is threatened not by quantum computing but by changes in the reward model for miners. This statement was made by Dr. Lawrence H. White, a professor of economics at George Mason University. According to him, after the last bitcoin is mined, which is expected to occur around 2140, the primary source of income for miners will be transaction fees. "People are concerned that it may not be possible to attract a sufficient number of miners to ensure the system's security," White warned. At the same time, the professor emphasized that at the current moment, the first cryptocurrency is protected from hacking because an attack on its network using quantum computers is not in the miners' interests.
White considers it unlikely that bitcoin will be used as a means of payment. Although, according to him, other cryptocurrencies that provide "more stable purchasing power" could assume that role.

? Peter Schiff, the President of Euro Pacific Capital, and a critic of the first cryptocurrency, has stated, "It's not a resource; it's nothing." He also likened holders of the asset to a cult. "No one needs bitcoin. People only buy it after others persuade them to do so. After acquiring [BTC], they immediately try to convince others to join in. It's like a cult," Schiff wrote.

? Opinions among members of the crypto community about BTC's future have diverged. Many market participants are confident that a positive news backdrop will support the further rise of the cryptocurrency. For example, Will Clemente, the co-founder of Reflexivity Research, believes that the behavior of the coin should unsettle the bears who planned to buy BTC at a lower price. The forecast of a trader and analyst known as Titan of Crypto implies that the coin will move to $40,000 by November 2023. Optimists are also joined by Michael Van De Poppe, the founder of the venture company Eight, and Charles Edwards, the founder of Capriole Fund.
However, there are those who believe that BTC won't continue to rise. For instance, analysts Trader_J and Doctor Profit are confident that after hitting a local maximum, the coin will enter into a prolonged correction. Their forecast does not rule out a drop in the BTC/USD pair to $24,000-$26,000 by the end of the year. A negative BTC forecast was also supported by a trader known as Ninja. In his view, the technical analysis, which includes an analysis of gaps on CME (gaps between the opening and closing prices of Bitcoin futures on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange), indicates a likelihood of BTC dropping to $20,000.

? The company Matrixport has published an analytical report discussing the growing FOMO (Fear of Missing Out) effect in the cryptocurrency market. Analysts cite their proprietary trading indicators, which allow them to successfully forecast digital asset prices. In their view, by the end of the year, the price of Bitcoin could reach $40,000, and in the event of the approval of a Bitcoin ETF, it could rise to $56,000.
(FOMO - Fear of Missing Out is a term that describes situations where the fear of missing opportunities or valuable resources leads to specific actions. Examples include investments driven by the fear of being left behind while others are making profits.).

? Investor and author of the bestseller "Rich Dad, Poor Dad," Robert Kiyosaki, has stated that once physical gold surpasses the $2,000 threshold (the current price is $1,975), bitcoin will move towards $100,000, with the next target being $135,000. Kiyosaki expressed scepticism regarding the value of the U.S. dollar, referring to it as counterfeit.

? Hal Finney was the first recipient of BTC. Consequently, many members of the crypto community speculate that the late Hal Finney might indeed be the enigmatic Satoshi Nakamoto. However, Jameson Lopp, a former Chief Engineer at BitGo and co-founder of Casa, conducted an investigation and became convinced that Finney is not the creator of the first cryptocurrency. Lopp discovered that Satoshi Nakamoto sent an email to Bitcoin developer Mike Hearn just 2 minutes before Finney completed a 10-mile race in Santa Barbara, California. Given that Finney was running for 1 hour and 18 minutes, it seems implausible that he could have been at a computer to send that email to Mike Hearn.

? As it turns out, traders in Thailand are using Tarot cards and astrology to predict price movements. For example, a popular astrologer who goes by the name Pimfah leads a Facebook group with over 160,000 members. There are also predictors on YouTube, like Ajarn Ton, who has over 26,000 subscribers. His channel features hundreds of videos, and in one of the recent ones, he predicts a 50,000% rise in the altcoin Terra Luna Classic. Considering that the project has collapsed and been abandoned for a long time, it's unlikely that this prediction will come true. However, there have been successful predictions as well. For instance, in August 2022, a well-known local predictor named Mor Plai forecasted the recovery of the crypto market. Several months later, this prediction made headlines in Thai newspapers.


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

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CryptoNews of the Week


? Former Ethereum platform consultant Steven Nerayoff has accused Vitalik Buterin and Joseph Lubin of fraudulent activities. He believes that the co-founders of ETH have misled the crypto community by using social media. Furthermore, according to the lawyer, Buterin and Lubin are involved in manoeuvres that are a thousand times larger in scale than the crimes committed by FTX founder Sam Bankman-Fried.
"Statements by Buterin that he attempted to create a decentralized currency are fake. It was centralized from the beginning, and today, it is likely even more concentrated," Nerayoff wrote. In particular, the lawyer suggests the possibility of a secret agreement between the Ethereum network administration and high-ranking U.S. officials, such as SEC Chairman Gary Gensler and former SEC Chairman Jay Clayton, at the early stages of altcoin initial placements.
"A small circle of ETH investors controls about 75% of all protocol assets. So now it's easy to manipulate the price or even set its lower or upper limit. Most of the trading you see on exchanges is fake or fictitious to create the illusion of liquidity," Nerayoff expanded on his accusations.
Previously, this lawyer speculated that the full-scale attack on Ripple by U.S. regulatory bodies could have been sponsored by influential ETH holders. In his view, Ripple's detractors may include individuals associated with the SEC, the Department of Justice, the FBI, and even some Ripple employees.

? Crypto investigator Truth Labs believes that it is not the U.S. but the Chinese conglomerate Wangxian Group that has decisive influence over the Ethereum network, and organizations close to the Communist Party of China (CPC) control almost 80% of mined ETH. Truth Labs also claims that Wangxian was one of the original sponsors of the Ethereum network in 2015. The group is also attributed with creating original wallets for Buterin.

? Co-founder of Estonian LHV Bank Rain L?hmus lost the password to a wallet containing 250,000 ETH. The businessman acquired the coins during an ICO in July 2015, and they remained dormant since then. At that time, the purchase cost him $75,000. On November 10, 2021, when the Ethereum price reached an all-time high of around $4,800, L?hmus's holdings grew to $1.22 billion. However, even now, they amount to approximately $470 million. Now, the businessman intends to recover the password using artificial intelligence. "My plan," he stated, "is to create Rain L?hmus as an AI and see if he can retrieve his memories." The possibility of losing access to his funds, the businessman called a "weak point" of blockchain. "It makes you think that this perfect decentralization carries risks that you don't usually consider," L?hmus shared his conclusions.

? The approval of spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) based on Bitcoin may not benefit either the main cryptocurrency or the people who use it. This is the opinion expressed by the former CEO of BitMEX, Arthur Hayes. He referred to investment giants like BlackRock as "agents of the state." "The state needs its citizens to 'sit in the paper banking system' to tax them with inflationary taxes to repay constantly growing debts. This makes sense for institutional entities that are inherently subject to the state," he said.
According to Hayes, institutional interest in the asset poses a situation that "ultimately may not be to our liking." "Yes, it's good, an ETF emerges, the price rises to a level it can reach. But what is the ultimate benefit of one institution owning all of this cryptocurrency?" he questioned.

? The first cryptocurrency may reach the $47,000 mark by the end of November 2023, according to Rachel Lin, CEO of the decentralized derivatives exchange SynFutures. 'The past weeks have solidified October's reputation as 'Uptober,' with bitcoin gaining nearly 29%. What's even more interesting is that historically, November outperforms October with an average bitcoin return of over 35%. If this November delivers a similar profit, the asset will reach approximately $47,000,' she stated.
As an additional positive factor, Lin noted the growth in the number of users and transactions. In her view, the surge in spot trading volume with a noticeable increase in transfers exceeding $100,000 is particularly noteworthy. 'This is a clear indicator of heightened institutional interest,' the specialist believes. 'Major players are consolidating positions in digital assets, especially in BTC. If we look at the inflow last week, we can see a massive increase: about $325 million entered the sector, with almost $300 million going into bitcoin. Options data also reflect bullish market sentiment.?

? As highlighted by Markus Thielen, the head of research at Matrixport, recent macroeconomic shifts, especially in the Federal Reserve's policies, suggest a potential rally in the market of cryptocurrencies. He reminded us that after the conclusion of the Federal Reserve's policy tightening cycle in January 2019, digital gold (referring to bitcoin) appreciated fivefold. Thielen cautioned against expecting a repetition of such dynamics while explaining that the first cryptocurrency could 'make significant advances' in 2023 and 2024. According to the expert's calculations, bitcoin tends to grow by an average of 23% during the pre-Christmas period of November and December this year.

? Analyst using the alias "Doctor Profit" has shared a rather conservative forecast. He believes that the period leading up to the BTC halving will range between $26,000 and $41,000. In his opinion, investors should be prepared for possible corrections. The expert also does not rule out the possibility of "black swan" events, similar to the one that pushed BTC to local lows before the halving in May 2020 due to the COVID-19 outbreak.

? In an interview with CNBC, the founder of MicroStrategy, Michael Saylor, listed the factors that he believes will lead to a tenfold increase in the price of bitcoin in the medium term. First, he mentioned the upcoming halving, which is expected to increase demand for the cryptocurrency and create a shortage in the market. Another source of buyer pressure will be spot-based ETFs based on the first cryptocurrency.
The third factor will be the soon-to-be-implemented new fair value accounting rules for bitcoin reserves of companies in the United States. Saylor believes that this will open the door for corporations to adopt bitcoin as a treasury asset and create shareholder value. The entrepreneur also pointed out the positive effect of regulatory and law enforcement actions by authorities, including the lawsuit against the former CEO of the collapsed FTX exchange. According to Saylor, "all these early crypto cowboys, tokens that are unregistered securities, unreliable custodians" were liabilities for bitcoin. To take the crypto industry to a new level, it needs "parental supervision." The founder of MicroStrategy also believes that the industry needs to "move away from the 100,000 tokens" that are simply used for speculation and focus on bitcoin. "When the industry shifts its focus away from the small shiny tokens that distract and destroy shareholder value, I think it will move to the next level, and we will see a tenfold increase from where we are now," Saylor concluded.

? The founder of the bankrupt cryptocurrency exchange FTX, Sam Bankman-Fried, has been found guilty of the alleged violations worth billions of dollars. On November 2, the jury delivered a guilty verdict in the case, convicting Bankman-Fried of seven episodes of fraud, money laundering, and criminal conspiracy. According to the law, the controversial businessman faces a minimum of 110 years in prison, essentially a life sentence. However, the judge has the discretion to impose a less severe punishment.

? CEO of ARK Investment Management, Catherine Wood, was asked which of the three asset classes she would prefer to hold for 10 years ? cash, gold, or bitcoin. Without hesitation, she replied, "Without a doubt, bitcoin. It is capable of safeguarding savings from both inflation and deflation... It's digital gold." Wood noted that she expects cross-pollination between industries like AI and cryptocurrencies, believing that the first cryptocurrency will only benefit from innovation. As a reminder, according to her predictions, in the next decade, the price of BTC will exceed $1 million.

? While for Catherine Wood, bitcoin is "digital gold," for billionaire Charlie Munger, it's the "dumbest investment," "rat poison," and a "venereal disease." In a recent interview, this associate of Warren Buffett once again criticized digital gold. "When people start creating artificial currency, it's like adding spoiled product to a traditional recipe that has been around for a very long time and used by many people," the investor said. According to him, one of the effective ways to advance civilization is to have a strong currency. It could be shells, corn kernels, gold coins, or debt obligations - the key is that this currency is issued by a central bank.


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market

Forex and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for November 20 - 24, 2023


EUR/USD: November 14 - a Dark Day for the Dollar


In the previous review, the overwhelming majority of experts expressed opinions favouring further weakening of the American currency. This prediction came to fruition. The Consumer Inflation report in the United States, published on Tuesday, November 14, toppled the Dollar Index (DXY) from 105.75 to 103.84. According to Bank of America, this marked the most significant dollar sell-off since the beginning of the year. Naturally, this had an impact, including on the dynamics of EUR/USD, which marked this day with an impressive bullish candle, rising nearly 200 points.

It is noteworthy that exactly a year ago, after the release of data on October inflation, U.S. bond yields plummeted, stock indices soared, and the dollar significantly declined against major world currencies. And history repeated itself. This time, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in the U.S. for October decreased from 0.4% to 0% (m/m), and on an annual basis, it dropped from 3.7% to 3.2%. The Core CPI for the same period decreased from 4.1% to 4.0%: the lowest level since September 2021.

In reality, a 0.1% drop in inflation is not that significant. However, the market's strong reaction demonstrated how overbought the dollar was. As analysts at ING (Internationale Nederlanden Groep) write, a powerful bullish trend in Q3 this year led to a 4.9% increase in the dollar. Keeping the dollar strong was easy due to the high interest rates and increased yields of U.S. Treasury bonds.

But everything comes to an end at some point. The data released on November 14 confirmed the weakening of inflationary pressure and convinced the market that the Federal Reserve (FRS) would no longer raise the key interest rate. Moreover, market participants now do not rule out that the regulator may shift to easing its monetary policy not in the middle of next summer but as early as the spring of the following year. ING economists believe that the onset of a recession in the U.S. will compel the FRS to cut the rate by 150 basis points in Q2 2024. According to MUFG Bank, the probability of a rate cut in May 2024 is now 80%, in March ? 30%. Such a reduction will halt the dollar's bullish rally, support so-called commodity currencies, and, as MUFG believes, EUR/USD could reach the height of 1.1500 over the next year.

As for the near-term outlook, according to Societe Generale economists, regardless of the outcomes of the Federal Reserve meeting on December 13 and the ECB on December 14, seasonal trends for the euro in the last month of 2023 are bullish. However, the dollar may be supported by weak growth rates in the Eurozone. Germany's economy is in a state of stagnation, preliminary GDP data for the Eurozone showed a decline of -0.1% in Q3, and the European Commission lowered the economic growth forecast for 2023 from 0.8% to 0.6%. Therefore, the euro may also come under pressure from speculation about a cut in the ECB interest rate.

EUR/USD finished the past week at the level of 1.0913. Currently, experts' opinions on its immediate future are divided as follows: 60% voted for the strengthening of the dollar, 25% sided with the euro, and 15% remained neutral. As for technical analysis, 100% of trend indicators and oscillators on D1 are coloured green, but 25% of the latter are in overbought territory. The nearest support for the pair is located around 1.0830, then 1.0740, 1.0620-1.0640, 1.0480-1.0520, 1.0450, 1.0375, 1.0200-1.0255, 1.0130, 1.0000. Bulls will encounter resistance in the area, then 1.0945-1.0975 and 1.1065-1.1090, 1.1150, 1.1260-1.1275.

Next week, on Wednesday, November 22, the minutes of the last meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will be published. On Thursday, November 23, preliminary data on business activity (PMI) in Germany and the Eurozone will be released, and the following day will bring similar indicators from the U.S. Additionally, traders should take into account that on Friday in the United States, markets will close early as the country observes Thanksgiving Day.

GBP/USD: Surprise from UK CPI

The strengthening of the pound on U.S. inflation data turned out to be even greater than that of the euro. On November 14, GBP/USD rose by 240 points, from 1.2265 to 1.2505. This is good news for the British currency. However, there is also bad news: inflation in the United Kingdom is on the decline.

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) in October decreased from 0.5% to 0% (m/m) and fell from 6.7% to 4.6% on an annual basis. The Core CPI for the same period decreased from 6.1% to 5.7%. All these figures turned out to be below expectations and were a surprise not only for the market but also for British officials.

Megan Greene, a member of the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee, stated in an interview with Bloomberg TV on November 16 that despite the current decline in inflation, wage growth in the UK remains incredibly high, and labour productivity is low. These two factors complicate the movement toward the target CPI level of 2.0% and make one wonder whether the Bank of England's policy is restrictive enough. According to Megan Greene, BoE might have to stick to a restrictive policy longer than anticipated.

If inflation does not bring new surprises, it is unlikely that the Bank of England will continue to raise interest rates in the coming months. But even if it continues to keep it at the current level of 5.25%, while the Federal Reserve starts lowering rates, it will benefit the pound. However, at the moment, making any forecasts is quite challenging.

"We remain cautious for now," write economists at German Commerzbank. "One surprise does not mean everything is settled. And given the remarkable instability of inflation in the UK, there is a risk that the return to the target inflation level will be uneven. Wage data released on Tuesday also confirms this view. At the moment, the Bank of England can breathe a sigh of relief, but caution is still necessary."

GBP/USD ended the past week at the level of 1.2462. As for the median forecast of analysts for the near future, here their voices were divided equally: a third of them pointed north, a third to the south, and a third to the east. For D1 trend indicators, 90% point north, 10% to the south. All 100% of oscillators are looking up, with 15% of them signalling overbought conditions. In the event of the pair moving south, it will encounter support levels and zones at 1.2390-1.2420, 1.2330, 1.2210, 1.2040-1.2085, 1.1960, and 1.1800-1.1840, 1.1720, 1.1595-1.1625, 1.1450-1.1475. In the case of the pair rising, it will face resistance at levels 1.2500-1.2510, then 1.2545-1.2575, 1.2690-1.2710, 1.2785-1.2820, 1.2940, and 1.3140.

Events of the upcoming week in the calendar include a speech by Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey on Tuesday, November 21. The following day will see the release of the Inflation Report and discussion of the country's budget, and on Thursday, November 23, preliminary data on business activity (PMI) in various sectors of the UK economy will be released.

USD/JPY: U.S. Treasuries Expected to Rescue the Yen

On November 13, USD/JPY reached a height of 151.90, updating a multi-month high and returning to where it traded in October 2022. However, on U.S. inflation data, the yen staged a comeback.

Unlike the U.S. CPI, macro statistics from Japan had minimal impact on the yen, though there were notable points to consider. For instance, the country's GDP in the third quarter showed a decline of -0.5% after a 1.2% growth in the previous period and a forecast of -0.1%. Against this backdrop, the head of the Bank of Japan (BoJ), Kadsuo Ueda, made a surprising statement on Friday, November 17, stating that the country's economy is recovering and is likely to continue doing so, albeit at a moderate pace.

Ueda is not certain that the weak yen negatively affects the Japanese economy. On the contrary, this weakness has a positive impact on exports and the profits of Japanese companies operating in the global market. Therefore, the head of the regulator is unsure about the order and extent to which the Bank of Japan will change its monetary policy. "We will consider ending the YCC policy and negative rates if we can expect our inflation target to be reached on a stable and sustainable basis," vaguely stated Kadsuo Ueda.

Meanwhile, Japan's Finance Minister, Sin'iti Sudzuki, stated that he is ready to take necessary measures in case of increased speculative pressure on the national currency. Deputy Minister Ryosei Akazawa supported his chief and reiterated that the government would intervene in the foreign exchange market to curb excessive volatility. The words of both officials somewhat strengthened the national currency, and on Friday, November 17, it found a local bottom at the level of 149.19. The final chord sounded slightly higher ? at 149.56.

Hopes that the BoJ will eventually tighten its monetary policy continue to linger among market participants. Strategists at Danske Bank, for example, predict a decline in USD/JPY below the 140.00 mark within 6-12 months. In their view, this is primarily due to the fact that the yield of long-term U.S. bonds has peaked. "We expect that in the coming year, the yield differential will contribute to the strengthening of the Japanese yen," they write. "In addition, historical data suggest that global conditions characterized by slowing growth and inflation favor the strengthening of the Japanese yen."

Speaking of the near-term prospects for the pair, 65% of analysts expect further strengthening of the yen, while 35% anticipate a new advance of the dollar. As for the technical analysis on D1, the forecast here is maximally neutral. Both among trend indicators and oscillators, the ratio between red and green is 50-50. The nearest support level is in the zone of 149.20, then 148.40-148.70, 146.85-147.30, 145.90-146.10, 145.30, 144.45, 143.75-144.05, 142.20. The nearest resistance is 150.00-150.15, then 151.70-151.90 (October 2022 maximum), further 152.80-153.15, and 156.25.

There is no planned release of any other significant statistics regarding the state of the Japanese economy in the upcoming week.

CRYPTOCURRENCIES: When Will You Become a Bitcoin Millionaire?

According to the Wayback Machine web archive, the surge in the value of the main cryptocurrency has led to a threefold increase in bitcoin millionaires since the beginning of the year. As of November 12, their count reached 88,628, a significant jump from the 28,084 recorded on January 5. Notably, bitcoin's price rose from $16,500 to $37,000 during this period.

Now, envision the potential scenario envisioned by Galaxy Digital CEO Mike Novogratz, where digital gold could soar to $500,000 within the next five years. Could the number of millionaires surpass a million? Moreover, when the BTC rate exceeds $1 million, as forecasted by ARK Investment CEO Catherine Wood, could we also join the ranks of those possessing this coveted wealth? It's highly desired that these aspirations materialize. Now, let's delve into why they could become reality and why they might crumble into fragments.

The experts at Matrixport have identified six drivers that, in their opinion, will contribute to the emergence of a BullRally in the coming months. These are: 1) SEC approval of spot bitcoin ETFs with trading expected to commence in February-March 2024; 2) the IPO of Circle, the issuer of USDC; 3) court approval for the relaunch of the FTX exchange in December 2023, with actual resumption of operations in May-June; 4) the bitcoin network halving; 5) the implementation of EIP-4844 following the Dencun hard fork in the Ethereum blockchain in Q1 2024; 6) the potential onset of easing in the monetary policy of the US Federal Reserve by mid-2024.

Diving deeper into two of these factors, the first and the fourth: they currently play a crucial role in accelerating the accumulation of BTC by hodlers, surpassing the issuance of new coins by 2.2 times. Notably, over 57% of coins from the circulating supply have been dormant in wallets for over two years. Simultaneously, the supply from short-term holders and speculators is sharply decreasing. This dynamic creates a significant deficit in the digital gold market, propelling prices upward. Many experts anticipate that this trend will intensify significantly after the approval of spot ETFs and the 2024 halving.

According to the analytics agency Glassnode, since mid-2022, due to the decline in crypto asset prices, miners have been compelled to sell nearly all the coins they mined to cover operational expenses and payments on debts, amounting to approximately $1 billion per month. After the halving and a 50% reduction in rewards, this volume is expected to decrease to $0.5 billion. Some companies may struggle to sustain mining operations altogether. The influx of new coins is projected to drop from 81,000 to 40,500 per quarter, further amplifying the supply shortage and driving prices upward. Historical data indicates that, in the year following halvings, BTC prices surged by 460% to 7745%.

Regarding the potential influx of institutional capital upon approval of a Bitcoin spot ETF by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), much has already been discussed. Let's delve into a few more forecasts. According to analysts at CryptoQuant, the overall cryptocurrency market capitalization would rapidly increase by $1 trillion in this scenario. Approximately ~1% of assets under management (AUM) from managing companies would enter the bitcoin market, potentially raising the market capitalization of digital gold by $450-900 billion. In terms of price, this suggests a short-term increase for the BTC/USD pair to $50,000-73,000.

Analysts from Bernstein predict that, in the event of bitcoin ETF approval, the asset's price could reach $150,000 by 2025. Meanwhile, their counterparts at LookIntoBitcoin advise profit-taking when the coin appreciates to at least $110,000. To determine the peak height to which BTC will rise, LookIntoBitcoin specialists calculated the so-called Terminal Price. This is computed considering various factors, including the time between bitcoin mining and spending, as well as the quantity of coins in circulation. Calculations indicate that bitcoin will reach the Terminal Price during the next bull rally, expected to conclude by the end of 2025. Looking at a longer horizon, one can explore the forecasts of Mike Novogratz and Catherine Wood for the next five to seven years (see above).

And now, a bucket of cold water poured on the hot heads of crypto optimists by analysts at JPMorgan, one of the world's largest banks. They recently released a sceptical report that scrutinizes investor expectations. The main theses are as follows: 1) The introduction of spot ETFs will only lead to a capital shift from existing investment products (such as Grayscale Bitcoin Trust) but will not generate new demand; 2) Lost SEC cases [against Ripple and Grayscale] will not increase loyalty in crypto regulation, and as the regulatory framework takes shape, the situation will only become more stringent; 3) The impact of the halving is unpredictable, as the reward reduction is already factored into the price.

So, what awaits the leading cryptocurrency? This is the question posed by Peter Schiff, the president of Euro Pacific Capital, known as the "gold bug" and a fervent critic of bitcoin. This billionaire conducted a poll on X (formerly Twitter) on the topic of when the crash of the leading cryptocurrency will occur. The majority of respondents (68.1%) believe that the asset should be bought and held. 23% of those surveyed predicted the coin's crash after the launch of spot bitcoin ETFs. Only 8.9% voted for the crash to happen before the launch of these exchange-traded funds.

Now about the current situation. Bitfinex exchange analysts warn that the price of bitcoin has reached a local maximum and may correct in the near future. According to their report, the average purchase price of BTC by short-term holders (Short-Term Holder Realized Price ? STH RP) is currently at $30,380, and the difference between this figure and the current price of the asset is the highest since April 2022. Historically, this indicates that the coin's price has reached a local maximum and may correct to the STH RP level, dropping to the $30,000?$31,000 range.

Doctor Profit, an analyst, also anticipates a correction and believes that the next correction following the positive trend will bring BTC back to around $34,000. "The market is overheated right now. Correction is a matter of time," he wrote on his microblog.

On the contrary, Matrixport analysts believe that a confident breakthrough above $36,000 will push the price of the leading cryptocurrency towards the $40,000 resistance. After that, it may open the way to the $45,000 height, which could be reached by the end of 2023. "Considering the steady growth in the number of buyers during US trading hours, we can see price growth by the end of the month (and year). Santa Claus rally can start at any moment," emphasized the specialists.

Many members of the crypto community supported Matrixport's positive forecast. Analyst CrediBULL Crypto believes that BTC will soon realize an impulse that will send the coin to $40,000. Trader CryptoCon also joined the optimists. According to his calculations, BTC has room to reach $47,000. However, he believes that this level may only be reached in the summer of 2024, after which a correction to around $31,000 is possible. The active growth phase due to the halving, according to CryptoCon, is expected by the end of 2024 ? the beginning of 2025.

As of the writing of this review on Friday, November 17, BTC/USD is trading at $36,380. The total market capitalization of the crypto market is $1.38 trillion ($1.42 trillion a week ago). The Crypto Fear and Greed Index has dropped from 70 to 63 points but still remains in the Greed zone.


NordFX Analytical Group


Notice: These materials are not investment recommendations or guidelines for working in financial markets and are intended for informational purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of deposited funds.

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CryptoNews of the Week


? The share of bitcoins potentially yielding profit has reached 83.7% of the total supply. This is the highest figure since November 2021, according to a report from Bitfinex analysts. Meanwhile, market activity is low. Experts have noted that coin owners are reluctant to sell, and buyers are not actively seeking them. "One reason for this is that the actual size of unrealized profits remains modest," added Bitfinex.
According to analysts, the ratio between short-term and long-term holders of digital gold is shifting in favor of the latter. The active supply of bitcoin has fallen to a five-year minimum: only 30% of coins have moved in the past year. Accordingly, approximately 70% of bitcoins, or "unprecedented" 16.3 million BTC, remained inactive throughout the year. At the same time, 60% of coins have remained motionless for two years. According to Bitfinex specialists, these indicators signify that the market is "in a relatively strong position" as coin owners see a positive return on their investments and are not in a hurry to liquidate assets.

?  As a result of the resolution of the U.S. authorities' claims against Binance and its former CEO Changpeng Zhao, bitcoin is now poised to exceed $40,000 by the end of the year, according to statements from Matrixport. Various estimates suggested that Binance could face fines of up to $10 billion, with allegations of illegal misappropriation of user funds or market manipulation. However, on November 21, an agreement was reached, with the company agreeing to pay $4.3 billion to U.S. authorities. Changpeng Zhao stepped down as CEO and posted a bail of $175 million to remain free. This outcome is considered by Matrixport experts as a "turning point in the crypto industry," indicating that Binance will likely retain its position among the largest crypto exchanges for at least the next two to three years.
In light of this news, Bitcoin initially experienced a temporary correction but then rebounded from $36,000. This confirmed a strong trend, and according to Matrixport experts, a rise above $40,000 in December appears "inevitable." However, they assess the probability of this "inevitable" outcome not at 100%, but at 90%.

? During a speech before students in Frankfurt, Christine Lagarde, the President of the European Central Bank, shared that despite "numerous warnings," her son invested in cryptocurrencies. However, the investments turned out to be unsuccessful, and he lost approximately 60% of the invested funds. Nevertheless, according to the head of the ECB, the investment amount was not very significant.
"He ignored my recommendations. Of course, it's his right. But when we talked about it next time, he admitted that I was right. I have a very negative attitude towards cryptocurrencies. People can invest in anything and speculate on anything. But they don't need to enable participation in various criminal and sanction-evading schemes and businesses," concluded Ms. Lagarde.

? The TRON (TRX) blockchain, created by the head of the cryptocurrency exchange HTX and Poloniex, Justin Sun, has reportedly surpassed bitcoin in popularity among terrorists, according to experts interviewed by Reuters. They claim that this is due to the higher transaction speed and lower cost of transactions. The TRON company stated that they do not control the users of the blockchain, adding that theoretically, any technology can be used for criminal activities.
Reuters-analysed experts also stated that the dominant asset in the TRON network is the stablecoin USDT from the company Tether. Tether has previously faced accusations of aiding fundraising for terrorists from US legislators. The company has denied these allegations, emphasizing its active participation in freezing suspicious funds, including in collaboration with Israeli authorities. It's worth noting that the National Bureau for Counter Terror Financing in Israel froze 143 wallets on the TRON blockchain from July 2021 to October 2023.
However, journalists point out the difficulties in accurately assessing the amounts collected by terrorists in cryptocurrencies, and it is challenging to determine whether the assets in the frozen wallets were indeed intended for such groups.

? Specialists from the analytical company Santiment have noted an increase in the correlation between the cryptocurrency and stock markets. In November, bitcoin, Ethereum, and the S&P 500 index, on average, grew by 9.2%. The strengthening correlation was observed after bitcoin traded in a narrow price range in late October to early November, showing no significant fluctuations. According to historical data, if bitcoin continues to outpace stocks, it will once again disrupt the correlation, which is considered one of the factors for the formation of a bullish crypto market, according to Santiment.
On November 24, the price of the leading cryptocurrency reached $38,300 for the first time since May of the previous year, prompting bitcoin traders to start taking profits. This is indicated by the slowing growth of the number of wallets with a positive balance. From November 23 to 27, the indicator increased by only 0.25%, reaching 50.91 million wallets.

? The trader, analyst, and founder of the venture company Eight, Michael van de Poppe, predicts that a few weeks before the approval of the first spot bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF), the coin's price may rise to $48,000. The expert anticipates that the bitcoin ETF will be approved by the SEC in the next five to six weeks. Consequently, the price of BTC could increase in December as investors seek to profit from the potential rally.
However, after approval, the price of the leading cryptocurrency may experience a sharp decline. The potential retracement target is the 200-week exponential moving average (EMA), currently around $26,500. Van de Poppe suggests that this downward trend may persist even after the upcoming halving. The analyst suspects that it is during this period that traders will actively accumulate coins, triggering the next bullish rise with a target ranging from $300,000 to $400,000.

? Strategists at Standard Chartered Bank believe that BTC could reach $50,000 this year and $120,000 by the end of 2024. The bank's initial forecast hinted at a potential surge to $100,000 but was later revised upward. The price of $120,000 is nearly three times the current value. The optimism from Standard Chartered's experts is linked to the increased profitability of mining when selling a smaller quantity of tokens to maintain the same cash flow volume, ultimately leading to price growth.

? The term "Bitcoin Santa Rally" is gaining popularity on social media platforms, fuelled by the impressive growth of the leading cryptocurrency by approximately 10% in November and 130% since the beginning of the year. This phenomenon echoes the historical "Santa Claus Rally" in the stock market when stocks surge between Thanksgiving and Christmas.
In the crypto market, a similar rally first occurred in late November 2013 when the price of bitcoin was less than $1,000. Throughout December, the bitcoin price consistently rose, reaching a peak of $1,147 by December 23. The next significant surge happened during the holiday season in 2017. Bitcoin embarked on a steep upward trajectory, surpassing $19,000 by mid-December and touching $20,000 for the first time.
However, in 2021, Santa Claus didn't bring joy to crypto traders; the result was the opposite. On November 10, the asset reached an all-time high, approaching $69,000, but in December, the price was influenced by volatility and low trading volumes during the holiday season. By the end of the year, bitcoin was trading around $46,000.
Naturally, this year, members of the crypto community are hopeful for bitcoin's growth, as indicated by Google Trends data.

? Charles Hoskinson, the founder of Cardano (ADA), criticized the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) for not classifying bitcoin as a security, thereby granting it "complete freedom of action," unlike other cryptocurrencies. According to Hoskinson, BTC is not as decentralized as the SEC believes: more than 51% of the hashing power can be controlled simply by taking the three largest mining pools to court.
In response, Blockstream CEO Adam Back explained to Hoskinson that the main reason is that bitcoin did not conduct an initial coin offering (ICO). "Bitcoin did not conduct an ICO. Most people thought it had no value. It was mined from scratch, it is decentralized, the project has no CEO. ICOs are what led regulators to demand registration from crypto companies. So ADA, Ethereum, and other crypto assets are considered securities under the Howey Test. And bitcoin is considered a commodity," stated Adam Back.
Hoskinson countered by stating that Cardano also did not conduct an ICO. According to him, the project simply distributed coins, and then thousands of people, who had never met before, began trading ADA on crypto exchanges and using the Cardano blockchain for their projects.

? The National Police Agency of South Korea has issued a warning about an increase in activity from North Korean hackers. Experts noted that the criminals are resorting to new sophisticated schemes, often posing as government officials and well-known journalists.
In 2023, North Korean hacking activity has shown a significant escalation in both scale and aggression. Unlike the previous year, where the primary focus was on the spread of ransomware programs, this year there is a shift towards more aggressive phishing attacks. In 2023, South Korean authorities halted the operations of more than 40 fictitious websites associated with cybercriminals.

? Dan Tapiero, Managing Partner and CEO of 10T Holdings, is confident in the inevitable increase in the value of the world's first cryptocurrency. The businessman believes that bitcoin is becoming an increasingly attractive means of savings. "There are many things, such as real estate, that people often invest in. Art, paintings... And bitcoin really can become part of such asset lists."
According to Tapiero, the "next bull trend will come in 2025. And we will see bitcoin surpass $100,000." "I think that's a pretty conservative estimate," he added. The expert believes that negative interest rates on U.S. Treasury bonds will serve as a special "mega-bull signal" for BTC.

? Former CEO of the crypto exchange BitMEX, Arthur Hayes, intends to withdraw funds invested in U.S. Treasury bonds and put them into cryptocurrency before the "Chinese printing press starts its monetary intervention."
According to his forecast, China will significantly increase its investment volumes in external markets. This monetary and credit expansion, combined with the weakening of the U.S. dollar, has the potential to benefit the cryptocurrency market. "Such a scenario will have a positive impact on the value of many risky assets, including cryptocurrencies. The interchangeable nature of global fiat credit implies that capital from China may permeate adjacent financial markets and contribute to the increase in the value of digital assets such as bitcoin," explains the co-founder of BitMEX.
 

Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

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CryptoNews of the Week


? On the morning of December 11, bitcoin fell sharply to $40,145. This abrupt decline lasted no more than five minutes. Multiple theories explain this event. One suggests that strong U.S. job market data released on December 8 triggered the drop. Alternatively, it could have been a result of someone's nerves giving way, a technical glitch, or a trading error in transaction size by a platform, trading robot, or trader, which led to cascade stop-loss execution in futures trading. Coinglass data indicates that over 24 hours, long positions amounting to more than $400 million were liquidated, including $85.5 million in bitcoin.
Since mid-August, the growth has been about 85%, and more than 160% since the start of the year. Thus, some analysts believe that a major player might have decided to secure profits ahead of the year's end. Two days before this event, the head of DecenTrader, known as FibFilb, warned, "We have grown significantly this year, and a correction is expected. [?] It's been overdue," he declared on December 9.

? Trader and analyst Michael Van De Poppe, founder of Eight, encouraged the community not to worry, noting that corrections, particularly deep ones, are common in the illiquid altcoin market. After recent events, he updated his bitcoin forecast, identifying the key support zone at $36,500-$38,000. He believes bitcoin's momentum is waning and anticipates Ethereum will outperform in the upcoming quarter.
Crypto expert William Clemente also isn't concerned about the bitcoin price drop, viewing it as inevitable. He argues that such corrections set the stage for the next bullish trend by eliminating overleveraged long positions.

? EQI Bank's director, Eli Taranto, agrees with Van De Poppe's prediction and also foresees a decline in bitcoin's value. He noted that as traders secure profits and await decisions on ETF applications, bitcoin's price will continue to fluctuate, subject to the butterfly effect, where minor influences can have significant and unpredictable consequences. Taranto specifically suggested a potential fall in BTC's price to $39,000.

? In early December, El Salvador launched a program offering residency and a chance for citizenship for a $1 million investment via bitcoin or USDT. The "Salvadoran Freedom Visa," in partnership with Tether, is limited to 1,000 participants. If fully subscribed, it will bring $1 billion into the country, with plans to expand the program further.
El Salvador's offer is notably more expensive than similar programs in nearby Caribbean countries like Antigua, Barbuda, Dominica, and Saint Lucia, which start at $100,000. Alistair Milne, founder of Altana Digital Currency hedge fund, criticized the program as uncompetitive, highlighting that some EU countries offer citizenship for less, like Malta's ?750,000 (~$810,000) option.
However, early interest is evident, as 153 individuals have already applied for the Salvadoran program despite Milne's scepticism.

? CryptoQuant experts suggest the possibility of bitcoin breaking the $50,000 mark in early 2024, as reported by The Block. This forecast is based on analysing the activity of digital gold holders and includes transaction volume dynamics, market capitalization, and Metcalfe's law in the context of cryptocurrencies. "Bitcoin could aim for the [$50,000-$53,000] range," the experts noted. However, CryptoQuant believes the market is nearing an "overheated bullish phase," historically followed by pauses and corrections. They highlighted that over 88% of coin supply is "in profit," indicating potential seller pressure and likely short-term corrections, often aligning with local peaks historically.

? The ongoing discussion revolves around a law proposed by U.S. Senator Elizabeth Warren to tighten control over cryptocurrency transactions. In December 2022, Warren suggested equating crypto companies with financial institutions regulated under the Bank Secrecy Act, requiring digital asset entities to adhere to the same requirements as banks. Her drafted "Digital Asset Anti-Money Laundering Act" mandates customer identification for crypto platforms. However, Alex Thorn of Galaxy Research argues this is impractical for decentralized platforms lacking user verification capabilities, potentially leading to an effective ban on bitcoin in the U.S. Neeraj Agrawal, CEO of Coin Center, criticizes the bill as an attack on technological progress and privacy, urging it not to proceed in the Senate. Many experts believe the bill has little chance of passing; during her 11-year career, only a small fraction of Warren's 330 drafted bills have been enacted, mostly as parts of other laws, with only one passing unchanged ? a minor law concerning flag display rules on U.S. federal property.

?? The governments of the U.S., South Korea, and Japan have started developing joint measures to combat North Korean hackers who attack cryptocurrency projects. These hackers use the stolen funds to finance weapons of mass destruction programs, including nuclear bombs and ballistic missiles, with damages amounting to billions of dollars. The largest incident in the industry's history was the $625 million hack of the Ronin sidechain of Axie Infinity by the Lazarus group. Additionally, the U.S. is investigating cryptocurrency use by terrorists, with calls in the Senate to hold companies like Binance and Tether accountable for facilitating transfers to illegal groups. Subsequently, Tether voluntarily froze all wallets on the sanction list.

? The $4.3 billion fine did not resolve Binance's issues. The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) continues to accuse Binance of illegal securities trading and other violations. U.S. Department of Justice officials intend to thoroughly scrutinize the trading platform's activities for compliance with legal norms. Binance is required to grant continuous access to its documents and records, including employee, agent, intermediary, consultant, partner, contractor, and trader information, to the Department of Justice, Financial Crimes Enforcement Network, and other financial regulators and law enforcement agencies. John Reed Stark, former head of the SEC, mockingly referred to this scrutiny as a "financial colonoscopy."

? Goldman Sachs investment banking experts released a report on the global economy, including the cryptocurrency market. They predict bitcoin prices may soon rise, driven by anticipated approvals of spot BTC-ETFs, the upcoming halving of mining rewards, and falling yields of U.S. 10-year treasury bonds. Importantly, in 2024, when the Federal Reserve begins a cycle of lowering interest rates, bitcoin could receive an additional bullish boost. The analysts explain that lower interest rates make borrowing cheaper, thereby encouraging risk-taking in both the economy and financial markets, including in the cryptocurrency sector. This outlook contrasts with the scenario of rapid rate increases seen in 2022.

? Analyst using the pseudonym Doctor Profit has thoroughly analysed bitcoin's growth cycles. In his view, digital gold goes through five key phases that illustrate the overall dynamics of the cryptocurrency market. Doctor Profit believes that the foundation of the new bull market was laid in the price range of $16,000 to $25,000. According to the analyst, at this stage, investor sentiment is changing, laying the groundwork for an upcoming upward trend, and the market is gradually preparing for dynamic changes.
The next phase covers the range from $25,000 to $38,500: this marks a period of market recovery. Bitcoin holders' activity and optimism are on the rise, paving the way for subsequent stages. As the market gains momentum, BTC enters the third phase, with its price fluctuating between $38,500 and $48,000. This trend is significant in shaping expectations for the future, as investors seek to capitalize on dynamic price changes, and the crypto market enters a period of increased activity.
According to Doctor Profit's analysis, the fourth, "golden" phase will commence within the price range of $48,000 to $69,000. It is at this stage that the market surges to its peak values, and investor euphoria reaches its zenith. Finally, the fifth phase arrives. The peak of the previous bull market, around $69,000, heralds the beginning of bitcoin's super-cycle, during which the price of the leading cryptocurrency will reach historic highs.
However, despite all the optimism, Doctor Profit cautions that before transitioning to the next phase, a significant correction of 20-30% awaits the leading cryptocurrency.

? Thirteen years ago, on December 12, 2010, the creator of the first cryptocurrency under the pseudonym Satoshi Nakamoto published his final post on the forum before disappearing from the public eye. The message gave no hint of the departure of this enigmatic figure (or figures). It contained a description of an update and code for elements of Denial-of-Service (DoS) control in protocol version 0.3.19. This was a time when digital gold was trading at $0.20, and as Satoshi himself and other users noted, the network "was not at all resistant to DoS attacks."
In the time leading up to his disappearance, Satoshi faced disagreements within the developer community, which escalated from forum discussions. He was often criticized for exerting excessive control over the project and making unilateral decisions. Apparently, the founder of the blockchain had planned to leave the team in advance. Therefore, before disappearing, he handed control of the protocol over to the community, with developer Gavin Andresen at the helm. (For reference: Gavin Andresen is currently the Chief Scientist of the Bitcoin Foundation. He has access to an alert key that allows him to broadcast messages about critical network issues to all clients.)
"Satoshi's contribution to decentralization and his fight against financial dictatorship are more than just a technological marvel. It is a movement for economic freedom and sovereignty. His disappearance is not just an act of self-preservation but also a reminder that not everything in life revolves around personal fame," wrote one of the users on the BitcoinTalk forum, remembering the last post of the creator of the first cryptocurrency.
 

Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

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CryptoNews of the Week


? Brian Armstrong, the head of the cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase, published an article filled with numerous statistical data. Following a significant market correction this year, the value of cryptocurrencies increased by 90%, accompanied by a 60% increase in trading volume in the fourth quarter (Q4). Armstrong highlighted that currently, 425 million people worldwide own cryptocurrencies. Additionally, 83% of the G20 member countries and major financial centres have either implemented or are in the process of developing regulations for the industry.
He emphasized that over 100,000 merchants and payment systems worldwide now accept payments in cryptocurrencies, including companies like PayPal and Visa. Armstrong also referenced a report by Circle, according to which the volume of international settlements in stablecoins over the last year exceeded $7 trillion. This indicates that stablecoins are assisting fiat currencies like the US dollar to exist in digital form.
In countries with underdeveloped economies, such as Argentina, Brazil, and Nigeria, cryptocurrencies are becoming increasingly popular among the population. People living and working abroad use cryptocurrencies for money transfers. Crypto transfers are on average 96% cheaper than traditional methods and take 10 minutes instead of 10 days, as mentioned in Armstrong's article. Even major financial hubs, London, Switzerland, Hong Kong, and Singapore are transforming into crypto centres to expand employment opportunities in the blockchain and cryptocurrency sector.
Brian Armstrong underscored that cryptocurrencies provide people with economic freedom by giving them access to their own money and allowing them to fully participate in the economy, regardless of the limitations of powerful, but outdated, financial companies.

? Gary Gensler, the Chairman of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), published a post on X (formerly Twitter) on December 22, addressing the industry's non-compliance with regulations. "There are numerous violations in the cryptocurrency sphere," the post read. "It's a breach of trust resulting in many people being harmed. All they can do is wait for the court to declare them bankrupt."
The community instantly reacted to the SEC head's statement, emphasizing that they had long requested the regulator to clarify the specific rules they need to comply with. It is known that Coinbase, the largest American cryptocurrency exchange, has been striving for years to get clarity from the SEC on industry regulations.
Billy Markus, the founder of Dogecoin, stated that the SEC Chairman had not established real rules. Markus went on to describe Gensler as "useless in every respect." Brad Garlinghouse, the CEO of Ripple, also commented on Gensler's post. He characterized it as "staggering hypocrisy" and called Gensler "politically accountable" for undermining the integrity of the SEC's requirements.
On the same day, the SEC issued a new statement, expressing "deep regret" over some mistakes made by the Commission during enforcement proceedings. Paul Grewal, the Chief Legal Officer at Coinbase, pointed out that the SEC's "regrets" about its mistakes do not negate the fact that its chairman is "intimidating the entire American industry." From a legal standpoint, these regrets hold no significance for any taxpayer or judge.

? Jan van Eck, the head of the eponymous company that also applied to launch a spot BTC-ETF, gave an interview to CNBC. "I cannot imagine any other asset overtaking bitcoin," he stated. Jan van Eck views the first cryptocurrency as the best means of saving and expects BTC to reach a record high in the next 12 months. "Bitcoin has 50 million users. It's an obvious asset that is growing right before our eyes," he declared. The head of VanEck also dismissed the idea that bitcoin is a "bubble." The businessman explained that an asset that consistently surpasses its previous highs in each upward trend simply cannot be considered "inflated."

? Bitcoin will end the year as one of the most profitable assets, largely due to the excitement surrounding applications for bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs). The leading cryptocurrency, having grown by more than 163%, outperformed traditional assets, only falling behind semiconductor giant Nvidia, whose stocks more than doubled amid the artificial intelligence wave.
Kaiko Research analysts believe that this year's bitcoin price dynamics can be divided into three phases: an early rally from cyclical lows, a mid-year pause, and a year-end rally, indicating the development of a new bull market.
Kaiko points out that bitcoin has long been regarded as a hedge against inflation, a digital alternative to gold, or a completely new asset. However, for most of its history, its price was significantly tied to macroeconomic conditions, the strength of the dollar, and stocks. This year marked a change when bitcoin began losing its correlation with stock indices, including the Nasdaq 100. The most rapid decoupling occurred recently, when the asset surpassed the $40,000 mark, the analysts note.

? According to the forecast of Brandon Zemp, CEO of the consulting firm BlockHash, 2024 will be a favorable year for bitcoin, the launch of cryptocurrency ETFs, and the adoption of regulations for crypto-assets.
Zemp, the author of "The Future Economy: A Crypto Insider?s Guide to the Tech Dismantling Traditional Banking," mentioned the collapse of the FTX exchange, the bankruptcy of crypto lenders, and the downfall of some stablecoins. He believes that the failure of crypto projects was facilitated by investors themselves, who bought colourful JPEG-format NFTs and trusted developers creating useless software.
"The good news is that cryptocurrencies are here to stay, and wrongdoers are constantly being pushed out of the market. A bullish trend is again on the horizon, and it may be more stable as bad players have been removed from the scene," the head of BlockHash declared. He expressed hope that in 2024, U.S. legislators will be able to bring regulatory clarity to the crypto market. "I would not like everything to be decided in courts. I am hopeful that next year a cryptocurrency bill will be passed. Otherwise, regulators will continue to sink their teeth into the industry, and cryptocurrencies will continue to resist," added Zemp.

? Analysts at the analytical company IntoTheBlock reported that hodlers hold a record number of bitcoins and Ethereum. IntoTheBlock classifies as hodlers those who have kept digital assets for at least a year. According to their data, as of December 24, hodlers owned 70% of the circulating bitcoins and 74% of Ethereum. The chart suggests that hodlers began accumulating coins as early as 2022. In such a market situation, a supply shock could occur. In this case, an increase in the value of digital assets would be inevitable, even with a constant level of demand.
IntoTheBlock experts also noted that this year Ethereum lags behind bitcoin in terms of price growth. Since January 1, BTC has increased in price by 163%, while ETH has risen only by 90%. Considering the increasing number of Ethereum blockchain users, analysts believe that in 2024, this altcoin will appreciate more than bitcoin.

? The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) announced that it has not changed its stance and continues to advocate for a complete ban on the use of cryptocurrencies as a means of payment and a tradable commodity. High-ranking government officials have indicated that the central bank sees no significant benefits in issuing licenses to cryptocurrency companies. According to central bank representatives, private cryptocurrencies threaten India's macroeconomic stability, violate the country's monetary sovereignty, expose consumers to risks, and facilitate illegal activities, including money laundering and financing terrorism. Officials assert that, at best, crypto assets should be viewed as gambling.
However, the RBI considers it prudent to launch its own digital currency, as a Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC) would be another tool to stimulate the rapid development of the digital economy. The Reserve Bank of India is confident that a digital rupee will provide consumer protection and serve as an alternative to private cryptocurrencies.

? Investor and bestselling author of "Rich Dad Poor Dad," Robert Kiyosaki, made three key forecasts for 2024. His first prediction is based on the actions of the BRICS countries (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa), which are expected to introduce their own gold-backed cryptocurrency. This, he believes, will lead to the demise of the US dollar. According to Kiyosaki, bitcoin and precious metals may benefit from this, as investors shift their funds into these assets. "The US dollar will die. Trillions of dollars will return home. Inflation will skyrocket. Buy gold, silver. Next year bitcoin will shoot up to $120,000," Kiyosaki declared.
His second forecast suggests that traditional investors, who usually allocate 60% of their funds in bonds and 40% in stocks, will face significant losses in 2024. To safeguard themselves, he recommended reallocating 75% of their portfolio into gold, silver, and bitcoins, and investing the remaining 25% in real estate or oil stocks.
Finally, Kiyosaki's third and last prediction is a stark warning about the severity of the upcoming market crash. Rejecting the idea of a soft landing, he asserts that a crash landing is more likely, which could lead to a full-scale economic depression.

? American venture capitalist Tim Draper has speculated that the value of bitcoin might significantly surpass the $250,000 mark in the upcoming year. He believes the route to widespread adoption of this premier cryptocurrency will be paved through stablecoins. Draper explained his confidence in bitcoin's potential, recalling his belief in the cryptocurrency even when it was valued at $4,000. He attributed the slower-than-expected growth of bitcoin to the apprehensions of a rigid U.S. government, acknowledging his underestimation of the United States' conservative stance.
Draper, an avid supporter of smart contracts, envisions a future where all financial dealings, including investments, payments, salary disbursements, and tax transactions, could be conducted in bitcoin. He anticipates that stablecoins will act as a critical transitional tool, facilitating bitcoin's mass acceptance. "Stablecoins will remain functional as long as the dollar retains its viability. However, as the dollar's influence wanes, I foresee a shift where people will gravitate towards bitcoin," Draper predicted.
 

Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market

CryptoNews of the Week


? A real drama unfolded in the cryptocurrency market after hackers breached the social network X (formerly Twitter) account of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and posted a fake tweet about the approval of the long-awaited bitcoin exchange-traded funds (BTC-ETFs). This statement caught investors off guard as it was expected that this important decision by the SEC would only be published on Wednesday, January 10. The market reacted instantly, and the price of the main cryptocurrency soared to $48,000.
The head of the regulatory body, Gary Gensler, urgently published a denial, stating: "The SEC's Twitter account was hacked, and an unauthorized tweet was published. The SEC has not approved the listing and trading of bitcoin spot exchange-traded products." Following this message, the BTC price reversed and dropped to around $45,000.

? As anticipation for a positive decision from the U.S. SEC grew, the number of Google search queries for "Bitcoin ETF" reached a record level. Last week, the percentage index exceeded the 50 mark, and this week it hit the maximum of 100 points. Interestingly, the search queries for "Bitcoin ETF" predominantly come not from the U.S. but from other countries. Canada leads with 100, followed by Hong Kong (86) and Singapore (85). Switzerland (73) ranks fourth, and Germany (72) is fifth among the most interested countries. As for the U.S. itself, it holds the 9th place with 39 percentage points.

? SEC Chair Gary Gensler warned on January 8 about the volatile nature of crypto assets and also reminded of the risks associated with crypto service providers. His recommendations followed amidst firms submitting updated applications for launching bitcoin exchange-traded funds (BTC-ETFs). Perianne Boring, the founder and president of the U.S. Chamber of Digital Commerce, believes that the SEC could delay its decision. In her view, amendments to these applications could be the reason for postponing the deadlines. Consequently, the Commission would need more time to coordinate the changes and might not complete all procedures even by the end of the week.
Perianne Boring hopes she is wrong. However, she admits that Gary Gensler and members of the expert commission may have received another chance to delay the final decision. The SEC, she is confident, has enough tools at its disposal to block the market entry of this exchange product altogether and is not willing to give up its position without a fight. Markus Thielen, an analyst at Matrixport, also believes that the regulator may avoid making a positive decision.

? Television host and founder of the hedge fund Cramer & Co., Jim Cramer, stated that the price of bitcoin has peaked and further growth should not be expected. He made this statement at the moment when bitcoin surpassed the $47,000 mark. Social media users and the crypto community consider Cramer a unique "indicator," whose predictions in the vast majority of cases... do not come true.

? Macro-strategist Henrik Zeberg expects a fantastic bull market in 2024. According to him, the dynamics of digital assets this year, driven by the arrival of new players, will be "parabolic." "[Bitcoin] will be absolutely explosive: it will go vertical. I think we will reach at least $115,000. That's my most conservative forecast. The $150,000 level is also quite achievable, and I see the potential for $250,000," notes the economist.
Zeberg added that thanks to the entry of institutional and traditional investors following the potential approval of spot bitcoin ETFs, the first four months of 2024 could be "incredibly impressive" for the crypto market. Everyone who did not participate in the first or second bull cycles will now say, "Oh, I missed the first two times, but I will be in this one." However, the expert believes that traditional markets are facing "the worst crash since 1929," when the Great Depression began in the U.S.

? An unknown user sent on January 5 nearly 27 BTC (worth about $1.2 million at the time) to the wallet of bitcoin creator Satoshi Nakamoto. This sender's address received funds from three different sources, the majority originating from a wallet registered with the cryptocurrency exchange Binance.
The genesis wallet of Satoshi Nakamoto, as of the time of writing, contains 99.67 BTC, which is valued at around $4.4 million. These assets have remained unmoved since the disappearance of the bitcoin creator in December 2010. Coinbase director Conor Grogan commented, "Either Satoshi has awakened, bought 27 BTC on Binance and transferred them to his own wallet, or someone just burned a million dollars." He also speculated that it might be a form of "strange marketing" related to the potential approval of a spot bitcoin ETF.

? Vytautas Kaseta, President of the Crypto Economy Organisation, has stated that while the crypto community celebrates January 3 as the birthday of bitcoin, technically this is not correct. On that day, Satoshi Nakamoto generated the zero block of the BTC blockchain, known as Genesis. However, this block only served as a starting point for creating the network, as it contained no actual transaction data. The first non-zero block, mined on January 9, 2009, marks the beginning of real transactions in the network, when the blockchain came to life as a functional means of exchange. It's the creation of this block that should be considered the true birthday of the first cryptocurrency, Vytautas Kaseta believes.

? The approval of spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) based on the first cryptocurrency represents a "turning point" for the asset's adoption. In this scenario, the price of bitcoin could soar to $200,000 by the end of 2025, according to analysts at Standard Chartered in a recent report. The bank estimates that by the end of 2024, exchange-traded funds will hold between 437,000 BTC and 1.32 million BTC. This is equivalent to a market inflow of $50-100 billion.
The analysts noted that exchange-traded products related to gold exhibited a similar dynamic, but only seven to eight years after their launch. "Bitcoin will see the same growth as a result of the approval of a spot ETF in the U.S., but we will see it materialize over a shorter period (one to two years), given the rapid development of the crypto market," explained Standard Chartered.

? Venture investor Chamath Palihapitiya echoed a similar sentiment, believing that 2024 could be the most important year for the first cryptocurrency. The billionaire noted in a new episode of the All-In podcast that the approval of a large number of spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) will likely be a "game changer for BTC." This could ultimately lead to the widespread adoption of the asset. Palihapitiya added that in this case, by the end of 2024, bitcoin will become a part of the traditional financial lexicon.

? Renowned analyst PlanB believes that the value of bitcoin could soon reach a range between $100,000 and $1 million. He explained that he does not expect a fall in BTC price because its level of adoption is only at 2-3%. According to the logistic S-curve of organizational development and Metcalfe's law, a decrease in asset profitability should not be expected while the level of adoption is below 50%. Therefore, the analyst opines, "the main cryptocurrency can expect exponential growth for a couple more years."
It's worth noting that PlanB is the creator of the Stock to Flow model for predicting the course of bitcoin. This model reflects the ratio of the available supply of an asset to the volume of its production. Thus, according to this model, the current price of the coin for most holders exceeds the purchase cost, which is a "distinctive signal of bullish growth."

? According to CoinDesk, the 40-day correlation between digital gold and the Nasdaq 100 technology index has dropped to zero. Over the last four years, this price relationship was positive, ranging from moderate (0.15) to strong (0.. The indicator reached its maximum value during the bear market of 2022. Now, bitcoin has completely "broken away" from the Nasdaq, thanks to expectations of the ETF launch.
Experts from Fairlead Strategies, interviewed by the publication, spoke about the prospects of maintaining the "independence" of digital gold in the near future. This nullification of correlation could signify the potential use of the first cryptocurrency as a means of diversifying investment portfolios. "We believe that the price correlation will remain low in the coming months, given the potential approval of a spot bitcoin ETF and the halving in April. Furthermore, risk assets generally exhibit lower correlation in bull markets compared to bear markets," the experts explained.
 

Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

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CryptoNews of the Week


? On January 11, bitcoin reached a peak of $47,787, a height last seen in the spring of 2022. However, instead of the anticipated growth, it plummeted and recorded a local low of $38,520 on January 23. In just 12 days, the leading cryptocurrency lost nearly 20%. According to experts, this is a classic case of the "buy the rumour, sell the news" scenario. Initially, there was an impressive bull rally, fueled by speculation about the launch of bitcoin ETFs on the stock exchange. However, once these funds became operational, market participants began actively taking profits.
The inflow of capital into BTC-ETFs, many of which were launched by major Wall Street players like BlackRock, was not as substantial as expected. Data from CoinShares shows that the 10 new funds launched on January 11 had gathered $4.7 billion by the end of Tuesday. Meanwhile, $3.4 billion flowed out of the Grayscale trust, which was considered the world's largest holder of bitcoin and has now also been transformed into a BTC-ETF. Logic suggests that a significant portion of the money in the 10 new funds likely came from Grayscale investors who switched to competitors with lower fees. If this is the case, then the inflow of new investments into the funds amounts to only $1.3 billion.

? Along with bitcoin, all major altcoins, including Ethereum (ETH), Solana (SOL), Cardano (ADA), Avalanche (AVAX), Dogecoin (DOGE), Binance Coin (BNB), and others, also suffered losses. Analysts believe that digital assets are facing additional pressure due to improvements in the stock markets, with both American and European indices on the rise. Investors are anticipating the recovery of the US economy ahead of the January 25 publication of the country's GDP data for Q4 2023.

? Peter Schiff, President of Euro Pacific Capital, didn't miss the opportunity to gloat over the buyers of bitcoin ETF shares. The share price of these funds fell by 20% or more from their peak. The FBTC shares suffered the most, depreciating by 32%. "I think VanEck should change the ticker of its ETF from HODL to GTFO [from 'hold' to 'get rid of", Schiff commented. This advocate for physical gold didn't limit his criticism to spot BTC-ETFs but also highlighted the ProShares Bitcoin Strategy ETF (BITO), which allows investment in bitcoin futures. Since the launch of this derivative in October 2021, its share price has plummeted by more than half.
Schiff believes that the owners of spot bitcoin ETFs will continue to incur losses. Some experts do not rule out the possibility of the coin's price falling to $30,000 - $35,000, lending some credence to the financier's bleak forecast.

? An analyst operating under the pseudonym Ali illustrated the price patterns of the last two cycles of the first cryptocurrency and suggested a further decline in its value. The expert pointed out that during previous rallies, bitcoin followed a consistent pattern: first reaching the Fibonacci level of 78.6%, followed by a correction to 50%. Hence, according to this model, a drop in the BTC/USD pair to $32,700 (50%) is not ruled out.
Trader Mikeystrades also considered a dip to $31,000 and advised against opening long positions. "Save your money until the market starts showing bullish strength and follows the flow of orders," the expert emphasized.
A crypto trader known as EliZ predicted a fall in bitcoin's value to $30,000. "I anticipate a bearish distribution over the next two to three months, with the second half of 2024 likely to be truly bullish. These pauses are necessary to keep the market in a healthy state," he stated.

? Caroline Mauron, the head of OrBit Markets, told Bloomberg that if bitcoin fails to consolidate above $40,000 soon, we could witness a significant liquidation of positions in the futures market accompanied by a panic withdrawal of capital from the crypto sphere.
Michael Van De Poppe, the founder of MN Trading, has a different view. He emphasized that bitcoin has gathered liquidity and is approaching a local bottom. "Buy at the lows. Bitcoin under $40,000 is an opportunity," the analyst urges.
Yann Allemann, co-founder of blockchain data provider Glassnode, also known as Negentropic, believes that a bullish rally in the bitcoin market will start in the first half of 2024. He predicts that by early July, the coin's value will rise to $120,000. This forecast is based on the asset's past price dynamics after the appearance of a bullish flag on the chart.

? In recent critical remarks about digital gold, Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan, once again expressed doubts about the asset's finite supply limit of 21 million coins.
In response, Jameson Lopp, co-founder & CTO of Casa, posted a fragment of the bitcoin protocol code that establishes a halving of miners' rewards every 210,000 blocks, or approximately every four years. This mechanism implies that after 33 halvings, the reward will drop to zero from the initial 50 BTC, meaning no new coins will be produced. Lopp asserted that "even Satoshi [Nakamoto] can't force" a change in these five lines of the software.
However, some experts believe that theoretically, modifications to bitcoin's source code, like any other, are possible, and the emission limit of 21 million coins could be lifted. But such a decision would have to be made by a consensus of miners. A historical precedent cited is the "block size war" of 2017, when some developers, crypto companies, and mining pools wanted to increase the block size from the original 1 MB to scale the network. This idea was rejected by the community as it would have led to greater centralization of bitcoin.
In a Bitcointalk forum discussion of Dimon's statement, users noted that increasing the emission would negatively impact trust in the cryptocurrency. "The finite supply of 21 million BTC is an advantage that sets bitcoin apart from other banking products. With an emission limit, the asset becomes more valuable. Any attempt to increase the supply is foolishness by short-sighted people who want to undermine trust in digital gold," comments on the forum read. Most participants in the discussion agreed that the final decision remains with the community, which is unlikely to support a change in emission parameters.

? The crypto exchange BitMEX organized a mission with an ambitious goal: to deliver the main digital asset to the surface of Earth's natural satellite. Aboard the lunar lander was a 43-gram cold crypto wallet containing 1 BTC. The module was inscribed with text from the bitcoin genesis block: a tribute to the creator of the first cryptocurrency, Satoshi Nakamoto.
However, something went wrong. The spacecraft, launched into space ten days ago, struggled to maintain orientation towards the Sun, necessary for charging its onboard batteries. Engineers at Astrobotic detected a fuel leak in the module's engine system, but it was too late. NASA recommended burning the module in the atmosphere. Eventually, it almost completely burned up, with the remnants falling somewhere in the southern part of the Pacific Ocean. Thus, the bitcoin managed to travel only 50,000 km from Earth's surface, instead of the planned 385,000 km.

? Bloomberg exchange analyst James Seyffart believes that the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) may authorize the trading of options on spot bitcoin ETFs. He announced this on his page on X (formerly Twitter). Seyffart notes that the SEC has already taken into consideration applications under form 19b-4 for the possibility of trading such instruments. According to the analyst, approval could occur between February 15 and September 21 of this year.

? Last week, Morgan Stanley published a document titled "Digital (De)Dollarization?" authored by the bank's COO, Andrew Peel. According to the author, there is a clear shift towards reducing reliance on the dollar, which in turn is fuelling interest in digital currencies such as bitcoin, stablecoins, and CBDCs (Central Bank Digital Currencies). Peel writes that the recent surge in interest in these assets could significantly alter the currency landscape. He cites a recent survey by Sygnum Bank, which found that over 80% of institutional investors believe cryptocurrencies play a vital role in the global financial industry.

? Popular analyst Lark Davis has pointed out the significant demand for cryptocurrencies in South Korea. He suggests that if local authorities decide to approve a spot bitcoin ETF, it could potentially generate up to $3 billion per year. Additionally, Davis reminded that organizations in Hong Kong are planning to launch their debut product in Q1 this year. If this happens, the influx could amount to about $6 billion over 12 months.

? The number of cryptocurrency users has reached over half a billion people, which is approximately 6% of the Earth's population. According to recent data, the number of people owning Ethereum has increased from 89 million to 124 million, while the number of Bitcoin owners by the end of the year rose from 222 million to 296 million. Notably, 40% of BTC owners also hold ETH, whereas 42% of cryptocurrency owners do not have these coins in their portfolios.
The increase in user numbers is linked to the prolonged bearish trend in the crypto market, as the authors of the study believe: ?The adoption of cryptocurrencies in 2023 grew despite macroeconomic obstacles, namely: tightening of monetary policies by Western central banks in an attempt to curb inflation, military conflicts, and the long-term consequences of the pandemic.? Analysts at Crypto.com noted a particularly sharp demand for bitcoin in Q4 2023, spurred by expectations related to the launch of BTC-ETFs.

 

Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market

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