2023 Market Forecast by Solid ECN

XRPUSD - Technical analysis

The XRPUSD pair has been actively growing since the beginning of this year as part of the general market trend. However, at present, the upward dynamics have seriously slowed. The price reached three-month highs around 0.4290, after which it rolled back to 0.3906 (Murrey level [8/8]). Fixation below it will give the prospect of further decline to 0.3662 (Murrey level [7/8]) and 0.3418 (Murrey level [6/8]). If the quotes consolidate above the resistance zone of 0.4050 ? 0.4150 (middle line of Bollinger bands, Fibonacci correction 38.2%, Murrey level [+1/8]), growth may continue to 0.4395 (Murrey level [+2/8]), 0.4565 (Fibonacci retracement 61.8%) and 0.4750.



Technical indicators point to the continuation of the uptrend. Bollinger bands are directed upwards, Stochastic is reversing upwards from the oversold zone, and the MACD histogram is stable in the positive zone.

Resistance levels: 0.415, 0.4395, 0.4565, 0.475 | Support levels: 0.3906, 0.3662, 0.3418

GBPJPY Repeats the Negative Closings

The GBPJPY pair confirmed keeping the domination of the bearish bias by providing new negative close below the additional barrier 159.90, to notice forming bearish waves and achieve some negative targets by reaching 157.45.



We expect to gather the additional negative momentum to resume the bearish attack and succeed to crawl below 157.30 obstacle to target 156.65 followed by 155.70 levels direct. The expected trading range for today is between 159.00 and 157.3.

Bitcoin is Trying to Maintain Momentum Above $23,000

Bitcoin is trading near $23,000 today. After Powell's speech yesterday, cryptocurrencies were unable to continue their rally despite the initial euphoria. The mood among cryptocurrencies is mixed, with the biggest loser being Graph which gained nearly 50% yesterday on the AI trend. Let's take a look at some key 'on-chain' indicators like NUPL and SOPR, and see how the balance of short (STH) and long-term (LTH) BTC addresses:



NUPL (Net Unrealized Profit/ Loss Ratio) indicator tracks the ratio of unrealized profit/loss and shows that the rally has lifted Bitcoin above the average purchase price of the broad market, making the 'average' BTC holder back in profit. Compiling the duration of the negative NUPL in all the bull markets, we observe a historical similarity between the current cycle (166 days) and the bear markets of 2011-12 (157 days) and 2018-19 (134 days). However, the 2015-2016 bear market stood out under this, experiencing a dominance of unrealized losses twice as long as the current one. This could serve as a potential warning signal should BTC return below $20,000.



The ratio between the total unrealized gain held by the market and its annual average could be another indicator of momentum. The momentum metric is currently approaching the equilibrium point and shows similarities to the recent phases of the 2015 and 2018 bull markets. Confirmed breakouts above the equilibrium point (1 - the horizontal red line) coincided with a change in the market's profit structure in the past foreshadowed a longer recovery in sentiment. The length of time elapsed below the equilibrium point was similar in all major bear markets, but reaching a key on-chain level may foreshadow supply resistance - the index is struggling to climb above resistance on a sustained basis, which underscores how important it is to overcome $24,000 on a sustained basis.



The SOPR (Spent Output Profit Ratio) indicator can be used to check the profit aggregated by different groups of BTC holders. For short-term traders (STH, in red), we see that the STH-SOPR is currently trading above the 1.0 value, showing the first sharp increase in profitability since March 2022. This reflects the large amount of BTC purchased at lower prices in recent months, which can be sold at a profit if sentiment weakens further.



It is positive that not only short-term investors but the broader market also gained after a very deep and prolonged period of losses. However, assessing the LTH (Long Term Holder) group of long-term investors, we can see that the stressful situation has continued nd since the LUNY implosion. Although the group is still, on average, in a loss, there are the first signs of recovery, including the potential formation of an upward LTH-SOPR trend. During the 2018 bull market, long-term investors averaged 291 days in losses; today it's about 265 days.



Bitcoin, W1 interval. The major cryptocurrency is still struggling to climb above the 200-week average, which has turned into resistance from its historic, very strong support in 2022.

USDJPY Tests the Resistance

The USDJPY pair tested 131.65 level by today?s open, keeping its stability below it, accompanied by stochastic reach to the overbought areas, which supports the chances of resuming the negative trades to head towards achieving negative targets that start at 130.40 and extend to 128.90.



Therefore, we will continue to suggest the bearish trend for the upcoming period, reminding you that it is important to hold below 131.65 to continue the expected decline. The expected trading range for today is between 130.4 support and 132 resistance.

CADCHF Technical Analysis

The CADCHF pair succeeded to gather the additional negative momentum to confirm the continuation of the previously suggested negativity and notice its crawl towards 0.6840 recently, also, the stability of the additional barrier 0.6920 forms major factor to confirm the domination of the bearish bias, which allows us to suggest suffering additional losses by crawling towards 0.6790 level soon, followed by reaching the additional support 0.6745 that forms the next main target for the upcoming trades.



The expected trading range for today is between 0.6880 and 0.6790.

EURUSD Approaches the Target

The EURUSD pair resumed its negative trading to move away from 1.0745 level, as it falls under continuous negative pressure coming by the EMA50, to approach our waited target at 1.0635, reinforcing the expectations of continuing the bearish trend in the upcoming sessions. Surpassing the mentioned level will push the price to achieve more decline and head towards 1.0515 as a next main target, while the price might witness some temporary sideways fluctuation affected by stochastic positivity until getting negative motive that assists to resume the negative trades to achieve the mentioned target.



On the other hand, we notice that the price completes forming negative pattern that adds more confirmation to the continuation of the expected bearish wave, which has negative targets that surpass 1.0515 to reach 1.0400 areas. Therefore, we will continue suggest the bearish trend for the upcoming period, noting that breaching 1.0745 will stop the negative scenario and lead the price to start new recovery attempts on the intraday basis.

The expected trading range for today is between 1.0575 support and 1.0745 resistance.

Crude Oil Completes Positive Pattern

Crude oil price approached the positive target mentioned in our last report at 80.40, showing some bearish bias by today?s open to test the support base formed at 78.90 after breaching it previously, and consolidating above this level is considered as the first condition to continue the bullish wave on the intraday basis. By taking a deeper look at the chart, we find that the price completed forming inverted head and shoulders? pattern that surpasses 80.40 to reach 81.60 followed by 84.25 areas, to continue suggesting the bullish trend for the upcoming period.



The EMA50 provides the positive support to the price, to reinforce the continuation of the expected bullish trend, while stochastic might cause some sideways fluctuation and temporary negative trades before resuming the expected rise. Therefore, we expect to witness more rise in the upcoming sessions, noting that breaking 78.90 followed by 78.30 levels will stop the positive scenario and push the price to turn to decline.

The expected trading range for today is between 77.50 support and 81.30 resistance.

EURJPY Prefers the Positivity

The EURJPY pair provided new bullish trading by its rally above the moving average 55 recording some extra gains by reaching 142.40, generally, we will keep our main bullish expectation depending on the stability of the extra support at 142.25, besides stochastic attempt to provide extra positive momentum, to increase the chances for resuming the rise and recording extra gains that might begin from 143.15 reaching the next main target at 144.05.



note that the attempt of the price decline below 140.25 level and holding below it will cancel the positive overview, to expect begin forming strong negative trading that might push it to suffer several losses by reaching 139.60 and 138.20.

The expected trading range for today is between 141.10 and 142.40.