2023 Market Forecast by Solid ECN

USDCAD

Despite natural gas price sideways fluctuation between 1.950 support and 2.500 resistance, the major indicators provide the negative momentum again, to increase the chances of renewing the negative attempts in the near term and medium term period.



Succeeding to break 1.950 support line will open the way to form new bearish waves to target the historical support at 1.4800 followed by reaching the psychological support at 1.

GBPUSD touches the target

The GBPUSD pair continued to rise yesterday to succeed touching 1.2580 level, noticing that the price begins today with new rise to attempt to confirm breaching this level, to continue suggesting the bullish trend for the upcoming period, reminding you that our next station is located at 1.2650.



The bullish channels continue to organize the suggested bullish wave, which gets continuous support by the EMA50, noting that holding above 1.2510 is important to achieve the waited targets, as breaking it will press on the price to achieve some intraday bearish correction before turning back to rise again.

USDCAD

As is usually the case for the first Friday of a new month, traders will be offered jobs data from the United States and Canada. Both reports will be released at 1:30 pm BST today, meaning that USDCAD is likely to experience a jump in short-term volatility around that hour.

Of course, the US report will draw more attention. The NFP report for April is expected to show an employment gain of 180k as well as an uptick in the unemployment rate to 3.6%. Wages are expected to increase 0.3% MoM but on an annual basis wage growth is seen staying unchanged at 4.2% YoY. Labour market data has been quite solid as of late and yet it did not discourage Fed from hinting that a pause in rate hike cycle is coming at the next meeting in June. Having said that, the impact of potential NFP beat today may be more short-term and won't alter rate expectations. When it comes to Canadian data, employment is expected to have increased by 21.5k jobs in April while the unemployment rate also ticked higher, from 5.0 to 5.1%.



Taking a look at USDCAD chart at D1 interval, we can see that the pair has been trading sideways recently. An attempt to break above the 1.3675 resistance zone was made at the turn of April and May but bulls failed to push the pair above it. Pair started to pull back and is now testing and support zone ranging around 1.35 handle and marked with 200-session moving average (purple line), previous price reactions as well as 23.6% retracement of the upward move launched in June 2021.

EURJPY

Beginning of a new week on the markets has been calm so far. Worse than expected German industrial production reading for March did not have much impact on EUR or European indices. German industrial output dropped 3.4% MoM, missing -1.3% MoM estimate quite significantly. One more piece of data from Europe will be released today - Sentix index for May at 9:30 pm BST. However, it is unlikely to trigger major moves on the EUR market as well. Speech from ECB Lane at 3:00 pm BST may trigger some short-term volatility. We also had release of Bank of Japan minutes during the Asian session but it turned out to be a non-event as it related to early-March meeting which was still chaired by Kuroda.



Taking a look at EURJPY at D1 interval, we can see that the pair has managed to halt recent correction at 147.50 support zone and is now trying to recover back to recent highs in the 151.00 area. A move above 149.00 mark was made today. Should the upward move continue and the pair breaks above the 151.00 area, a test of the upper limit of the upward channel, currently in the 153.20 area, cannot be ruled out in the near-term.

NZDUSD

The NZDUSD pair shows more bullish bias to move away from 0.6290, which supports the continuation of the bullish wave for the rest of the day, and the way is open to achieve our next target at 0.6380, supported by the EMA50 that carries the price from below, noting that holding above 0.6290 is important to achieve these targets.



The expected trading range for today is between 0.6260 support and 0.6370 resistance

GBPUSD presses on the channel?s support line

GBPUSD pair ended yesterday negatively, to test the intraday bullish channel?s support line, noticing that the price begins today with slight decline to move below this support, while stochastic reaches the oversold areas now, to form positive motive that we are waiting to assist to push the price to resume the main bullish wave and head to achieve gains that reach 1.2850.



Therefore, the overall bullish trend will remain valid for the upcoming period, supported by the EMA50, and the price needs to breach 1.2625 to confirm resuming the bullish track, noting that failing to achieve the required breach will push the price to achieve additional decline that its next target reaches 1.2550.

GBPJPY repeats the positive closes

The GBPJPY pair repeated providing positive closes above the extra support at 169.25 level, confirming its readiness to resume the bullish attack, to notice its fluctuation near 170.70.



note that stochastic begins providing positive momentum by its rally above 50 level will ease the mission of reaching the initial extra target at 172.13, then wait for attacking the extra barrier at 172.50 level, which represents the key for detecting the expected trend in the upcoming period. The expected trading range for today is between 169.70 and 171.40.

Gold

Gold prices shows some bearish bias since morning, noticing that stochastic gathers the positive momentum clearly, waiting to motivate the price to resume the expected bullish trend for today, which its targets begin at 2048.70 and extend to 2075.25 after surpassing the previous level.



The bullish channels organize the expected bullish wave, which will remain valid unless breaking 2007.65 and holding below it.