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Crucial GBPUSD Levels to Watch: 1.255 Support and 1.274 Resistance

The GBPUSD currency pair experienced a strong bounce from the 1.255 area, with an upbeat halt at the 1.264 pivot, which consequently serves as the main resistance area for the bulls.



However, upon closer examination of the 1-hour chart, we can observe three bearish engulfing candle patterns signaling the pressure of bears near the pivot. The bearish scenario appears stronger, given that the overall outlook of the GBPUSD is bearish.



It is important to note that, as long as the 1.264 pivot holds, the market?s primary objective is to retest the 1.255 support level, followed by a potential further decline to the 1.248 level. This information is crucial for traders and investors who are closely monitoring the market?s movements and seeking to make informed decisions.

On the other hand, if the bulls manage to close above the 1.265 pivot on GBPUSD, it would pave the way for a potential rise to the 1.274 resistance level.

EURUSD Analysis: Price is Steady as Traders Awaits Important Data

At present, the EURUSD rate is holding steady, as the market eagerly awaits an important announcement about US job figures. However, this calm was disrupted on Thursday when the European currency experienced a dip, effectively reversing some of its gains from earlier in the week. This downturn was anticipated, given the significant news expected to be released on Friday.

In addition to this, the European currency was dealt another blow due to disappointing retail sales figures from Germany. These figures serve as a stark reminder of the ongoing concerns surrounding the trajectory of the European economy.

Despite these challenges, the European Central Bank continues to maintain a firm stance. This is largely due to persistently high consumer prices. The tough rhetoric from the bank in response to these inflationary pressures is playing a crucial role in bolstering the value of the European currency.

Given these circumstances, it seems prudent at this point to adopt a 'wait and see' approach. With an important announcement on the horizon, it's advisable to hold off on making any major decisions until more information becomes available.



The EURUSD currency pair is currently undergoing a critical test of the 1.083 pivot point. A close examination of the 4-hour chart reveals no significant candlestick patterns, indicating a lack of clear direction for the pair.

Adding to this uncertainty, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator has flipped below its signal line, suggesting a bearish outlook for the EURUSD. However, for this bearish scenario to fully materialize, it is crucial for the bears to close below the pivot line. If this occurs, their next target would be the 1.073 support level, with the decline likely to continue within the bearish channel.

On the other hand, the bulls face a strong resistance at 1.0946 and the upper band of the declining channel. In order to invalidate the bearish scenario and shift momentum in their favor, they must first escape from the channel and close above the 1.0946 resistance level.

Traders and investors would do well to closely monitor developments and be prepared to act accordingly.

GBPUSD Recovery Uncertain as UK Factory Activities Decline

The GBPUSD is trying to recover from 1.2600, but its recovery is uncertain as UK factory activities keep declining. Despite this, the Bank of England (BoE) is expected to raise interest rates for the 15th time in a row this month. This has put pressure on UK firms, who have shifted their focus to stabilizing margins and reducing costs by cutting inventories and their workforce.



The GBPUSD pair is trying to make a significant comeback after a severe sell-off, which was caused by growing recession concerns. However, the recovery effort seems fragile as UK factory activities are being affected by the BoE?s higher interest rates.



In today's trading session, the GBPUSD currency pair is making a concerted effort to correct the losses it incurred on Friday. Currently, the GBPUSD is trading near a key resistance level and the pivot zone at 1.263. Given the prevailing market conditions, the outlook for this currency pair is a downtrend. Consequently, for the bears to maintain this bearish scenario, it's crucial that they keep the pair below the 1.263 pivot point.

On the other hand, if the bulls manage to close above the 1.265 resistance level, it could potentially invalidate the current bearish scenario. In such a situation, we could see the GBPUSD surge towards the 1.27 resistance level, and possibly even extend towards 1.28.

Gold Trading Forecast: Key Levels to Watch in the Short Term

The price of gold has been falling for two days because people are investing more in the US Dollar. This is happening because there are concerns about a global recession. People see the US Dollar as a safe option, especially as some countries are struggling with high interest rates and the possibility of deflation in China.

However, the situation for gold may not be bad. The US Unemployment Rate has gone up to 3.8% and wages are not growing as fast. People hope that the Federal Reserve will stop raising interest rates. A member of the Federal Reserve, Christopher Waller, agrees with this idea. He says that recent economic information gives the Federal Reserve more time to decide if they need to raise interest rates again.



In a recent development, gold closed under the pivotal point of $1,930. This event was triggered when the bulls were unable to breach the trendline on XAUUSD, which now serves as a strong resistance. The presence of a long wick shadow and the inverted hammer pattern are clear indicators of mounting sell pressure on gold. From a technical analysis perspective, it is likely that the price of gold could retreat to $1,910, and potentially even to $1,900.

However, all is not lost for gold. The high gold price recorded on September 1 is currently acting as a resistance level. To negate the bearish outlook, the bulls need to overcome the declining trendline and ensure a close above $1,950. Achieving this would signal a momentum shift and could pave the way for further gains in gold.

EURUSD Analysis: Markets Surprised by Q2 GDP Fails

The Eurozone?s Q2 2023 GDP was revised, surprising markets that had expected 0.6% growth. Instead, the GDP saw a small increase of 0.1%, falling short of the projected 0.3%. This was due to slow domestic consumption and decreasing exports. Despite this, the EURUSD is gaining, even though expectations for a rate hike from the ECB next week are dropping.



The EURUSD currency pair is currently trading within a declining channel and is closing below the 1.072 resistance level. This suggests that the decline is likely to continue, with the next target being the 1.065 supply zone.

China Inflation to Rebound on Economic Recovery

China?s consumer price inflation, which measures the average change in prices over time that consumers pay for a basket of goods, is expected to increase in the coming months. This is due to the economy?s moderate recovery, which is being driven by various policy measures.

In August, consumer prices rose by 0.1% compared to the previous year. This was a reversal from July, when prices fell by 0.3%. This was the first decrease since February 2021.

The Chinese government has set an inflation target of around 3% for this year. The rise in prices was mainly due to a 0.5% increase in non-food prices, while food prices fell by 1.7%.

Core inflation, which excludes food and energy prices, remained steady at 0.8% in August. This was the highest level since January.

Meanwhile, the annual decrease in producer prices (the prices that producers get for their products) slowed to 3.0% in August from 4.4% in July.

Economists Zichun Huang and Julian Evans-Pritchard predict that producer prices will stop falling by the end of the year and consumer prices will continue to rise over the coming months. They expect an average inflation rate of around 1.0% in 2024 and 2025.

They also believe that core inflation will increase in the coming months as excess stock from the pandemic export boom is sold off and policy support leads to a partial recovery in domestic demand.

Despite a slump in the property market, Beijing expects to achieve a growth target of around 5% this year. The Chinese government has introduced several measures to combat the economic downturn following the reopening related bounce back at the start of the year.

The People?s Bank of China has also relaxed its borrowing rules and reduced mortgage rates for first-time home buyers.

In August, bank lending increased sharply to CNY 1.36 trillion from CNY 345.9 billion in July, exceeding the expected level of CNY 1.2 trillion. Total social financing (a broad measure of credit and liquidity in the economy) increased to CNY 3.12 trillion in August from CNY 528.2 billion in July.

Dollar Gets Stronger Amid Changes in World Economy

The US dollar is doing better after it fell due to comments from Japan and China. Also, Beijing has made rules that need approval for buying more than $50 million. These different money policies around the world keep helping the dollar. It's doing better against all the G10 currencies and is mostly the same as yesterday. Most currencies from developing countries are lower, with those from Central Europe falling the most. The Chinese yuan is steady.

Most stock markets are down, but those in Japan, Taiwan, and Australia went up today. Europe's Stoxx 600 is a bit lower and US index futures have dropped by about 0.25%.

Japan's 10-year yield has gone up a bit to 0.70%. European yields are a bit lower by up to two points. Even with a rise in average weekly earnings in the UK, the 10-year Gilt yield has dropped almost five points to 4.42%. The US 10-year yield has dropped about 1.5 points to almost 4.27%. Today, the US plans to sell $35 billion of the 10-year note.

Gold is trading between $1918.6 and $1924.5 today, with its 200-day average around $1920. October WTI is steady near yesterday's high of $88.15 before today's OPEC and EIA monthly market reports. The IEA's report will be out tomorrow.

Navigating the Gold Market: An In-depth Look at Recent Trends

The price of gold is continuing to drop, moving closer to the $1,900 mark. This is happening because the value of the US Dollar is starting to rise again. This increase is due to a careful approach in the market and a rise in US Treasury bond yields. Everyone is now waiting for the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation data. This information will guide the US Federal Reserve's decisions about interest rates.

On Wednesday, the market is being cautious because of a drop in Apple and Oracle shares. People are thinking about what the European Central Bank and Bank of Japan might do next. They're also considering how the increase in oil prices could affect the world's economy and central banks. Oil prices are near their highest in ten months because OPEC+ has cut oil production.

The US Dollar is in demand because it's seen as a safe option when the market is uncertain. This is causing the price of gold to fall. US Treasury bond yields are going up again because people think that high US CPI data could lead to another increase in interest rates in November or December. There's a 93% chance that the Fed will not change interest rates in September. So, the price of gold could drop below $1,900.

The US CPI is expected to have increased by 3.6% in August, compared to 3.2% in July. The annual Core CPI inflation is likely to be 4.3%, down from 4.7% in July. On a monthly basis, the US CPI is expected to have increased by 0.6% in August, while the core figure is likely to remain at 0.2%.

On Tuesday, the price of gold fell. This happened because people expect the European Central Bank (ECB) to change its policy after seeing its inflation forecasts. This expectation made gold, which doesn?t earn interest, less attractive. The Euro became more popular because of the ECB report, which made the Euro to US Dollar exchange rate go up. This decrease in the value of the US Dollar helped stop the price of gold from falling too much, keeping it around $1,907.



As we approach the release of US inflation data, the price of gold seems more likely to decrease. This is because it broke out of its previous range on Tuesday. Previously, the price of gold was fluctuating between the 21-day and 50-day moving averages (DMA), which were at $1,917 and $1,932 respectively. However, it ended the day below the 21-day DMA, indicating a potential downward trend.

The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI), which measures the speed and change of price movements, is currently below the midpoint and heading downward. This suggests that the price could continue to fall. The next important level for the price of gold is $1,900. If it falls below this level, we could see a rapid drop towards $1,885.

On the other hand, if the price starts to rise, it will first encounter resistance at the 21-day DMA of $1,917. If it can break through this level, it will then face the 200-day DMA at $1,921. If it can surpass this level, it could potentially rise to the 50-day DMA at $1,932.