#WeekAhead #Forex #NewWeek #Followme #SocialTrading
(GMT+8)
Monday
23:00 ECB's President Draghi speech
Tuesday
07:30 Tokyo CPI ex Fresh Food (YoY) (Oct)
14:45 RBA's Governor Lowe speech
Wednesday
08:30 RBA Trimmed Mean CPI (QoQ) (Q3)
08:30 Consumer Price Index (QoQ) (Q3)
19:00 Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY) (Oct)
20:30 US Gross Domestic Product Annualized (Q3)
22:00 CANADA Bank of Canada Monetary Policy Report
Thursday
02:00 US Fed's Monetary Policy Statement
03:30 FOMC Press Conference
24h Brexit Deadline
18:00 Europe Gross Domestic Product s.a.
Friday
09:45 China Caixin Manufacturing PMI (Oct)
22:00 US ISM Manufacturing PMI (Oct)
The fate of the dollar could be decided by the upcoming #Fed policy decision. While the market is fully pricing in a third consecutive #RateCut, the odds for another cut in December have dropped to 40%. The Fed is likely to cut rates but possibly signal they will wait-and-see the impact of recent batch of cuts. #Powell has highlighted Greenspan’s mid-cycle adjustment in the 1990s and we could see that remain the game plan.
The #TradeWar should see incremental updates, but we may not see a major move until we get to the Trump-Xi meeting at the APEC summit next month. The #USD has weakened significantly in the early part of October and we could see this recent rebound be short-lived if the deep pessimism for the global outlook eases, and the dollar to remain very vulnerable.
#Oil prices have been rising towards the back end of the week aided by a surprise inventory drawdown on Wednesday. Oil has been gradually rising since testing its summer lows. Remains vulnerable to global growth worries and further attacks in the middle east.
#Gold has been creeping off its lows but is still struggling to gather any upward momentum. A softer dollar has aided the resilience in the yellow metal but it continues to linger around $1,500. Gold volatility has been relatively muted but the risk environment remains fragile.
The #UK remains in limbo as the country waits to hear whether its extension will be accepted and how long it will be. #BorisJohnson has proposed to Labour that in exchange for an election on 12 December, he will extend the timetable for the #BrexitBill until 6 November. Labour expected to respond on Monday once extension from EU becomes clear. It’s unclear when the #EU will respond as there’s apparently a dispute around whether to offer the full three months or just a couple of weeks, reportedly favoured by France. It’s extremely unlikely it will be rejected altogether but the currency remains volatile.
Weak economic data out of #China has a serious knock-on effect for most of Asia, who rely heavily on exports to China. It’s also likely to filter down to slower global growth.
Quarterly #CPI data on Wednesday could be a market mover, but it’s not the #RBA’s major focus at the moment. Prices have been trending lower since Q2 last year. Weak CPI data could give the RBA more wiggle space for rate cuts, which would be #AUD negative.
